The Hezbollah threat has caught Cyprus unprepared. What is at stake? | News on the Israel-Palestine conflict

Hezbollah’s threat to retaliate against Cyprus if it supports Israel in an attack on Lebanon has highlighted the delicate geopolitical situation of the Mediterranean island, analysts say.

Cypriots were surprised when Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah mentioned them in a speech on June 19, saying Cyprus would be considered “part of the war” if Israel used Cypriot airports and bases in an attack on Lebanon.

“The Cypriot government should be cautious,” he said.

For many, the announcement was a shock.

President Nikos Christodoulides told reporters in response to Nasrallah’s comments: “Cyprus is in no way involved in the military conflicts.”

“I don’t understand this,” says Angelina Pliaka, a lawyer in the capital Nicosia. “We are not involved in this and we do not support Israel.”

Cyprus’ position

The possibility of war between Israel and Hezbollah has loomed ever closer over the course of Israel’s devastating eight-month war on Gaza, as the Lebanese group has exchanged fire with Israel in an attempt to divert Israel’s resources from its Gaza campaign.

Analysts have long warned that a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah would draw in countries and actors across the region.

But despite rising tensions across the region since the Hamas-led attack on Israel on October 7, Hezbollah has not directly threatened Cyprus, which has close ties with Israel but also serves as a base for aid deliveries to Gaza.

Nasrallah’s threat underscored that Nicosia is a US ally and European Union member within range of Hezbollah’s missiles, and that many in the country are increasingly concerned about the arrival of desperate people seeking refuge from surrounding war zones.

The Hezbollah threat is “a stark reminder to the people of Cyprus of where the country lies and how easily situations can be thrown off track,” Harry Tzimitras, director of the Cyprus Centre at the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), told Al Jazeera.

Known more for its beaches than for its proximity to war zones, Cyprus is the EU’s easternmost state, located just 160 kilometers from the Lebanese coast.

In recent years, attempts have been made to use this position to act as the EU’s bridge to the Middle East, building close relations with Israel and Egypt while maintaining channels of communication with Iran.

“Cyprus has been quite close to Israel since 2010/11,” said Tzimitras.

“The Netanyahu governments in particular benefit from the fact that Cyprus has become a close ally in political, financial, energy and military terms in its relations with the EU, as well as a friendly country.”

Despite these ties, Cyprus tries to keep its distance from the conflicts in the Gaza Strip and on the Israeli-Lebanese border.

Christodoulides also pointed to the humanitarian corridor and stated: “Our country is in no way involved and is not part of the problem.”

An EU state in danger

The Cypriot government was “surprised,” said James Ker-Lindsay, a research fellow at the London School of Economics and a specialist in Cyprus and the Eastern Mediterranean.

“The big takeaway is that Hezbollah is making threats against an EU member state. There will be discussions in Europe about how to respond to this and there will be calls for Iran to withdraw its threats.”

In his June 19 speech, Nasrallah pointed out that Israeli forces conducted exercises in Cyprus two years ago to simulate an invasion of Lebanon because the island’s hilly terrain resembles southern Lebanon.

In a speech shortly after these exercises in 2022, he made no mention of these exercises.

The Hezbollah threat “probably has more to do with” the British bases in Cyprus than anything else, says Jack Watling, senior research fellow for land warfare at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).

Cyprus was a British colony until 1960, and when it gained independence, the United Kingdom maintained two extensive military bases there.

They played a crucial role in the exodus of British citizens from Lebanon during Israel’s war against Hezbollah in 2006.

The country’s air force used one of the bases, RAF Akrotiri, in the invasions of Iraq in 2003 and Libya in 2011, as well as in airstrikes against ISIL (ISIS) in Iraq in 2014.

In January, the RAF used the base to attack the Houthis in Yemen, deterring the group from attacking ships it viewed as linked to Israel.

Investigative media outlet Declassified UK reported in May that the British military had sent 60 flights to Israel since it began bombing Gaza in October, most of them from Akrotiri.

The London Ministry of Defence refused to disclose what cargo these flights were carrying.

According to British media reports, the base was secretly used by the US to transport weapons to Israel.

The British government also refused to say whether its bases in Cyprus are being used to bomb the Gaza Strip or whether Israeli fighter jets have landed there.

For Hezbollah, however, the British bases are the greatest strategic threat emanating from Cyprus, Watling said.

“I would interpret (Nasrallah’s statement) as Hezbollah trying to encourage Britain and the US to put pressure on Israel so that there is no escalation,” he said.

“Given that Hezbollah has ballistic missiles, this is a plausible threat.”

The refugee question

This is not the only geopolitical problem facing Cyprus.

In the wake of the war in Ukraine, Cyprus has turned away from its traditionally good relations with Russia and clearly sided with the West.

But this change of course could come at a price, because military escalation is not the only way for Hezbollah to threaten Cyprus.

The island is only a few hours by boat from war-torn Syria and has the highest number of asylum seekers in the EU in relation to its population.

In May, Nasrallah called on the Lebanese government to “open the sea” so that Syrians could make their way to Cyprus.

“Cyprus has prepared itself for the possibility of a wave of Lebanese migrants if things go wrong in Lebanon. It has already experienced significant migration from Lebanon twice before,” Tzimitras said.

“If the island had to take in even more people given the current migration situation, it would come under enormous pressure.”

Nicosia-based lawyer Nicoletta Georgiadou also believes that Cypriots are less concerned about a military escalation on their island than about a wave of arriving refugees.

“If this threat became a reality, there would be no war, but Cyprus would be flooded with Syrian and Lebanese refugees,” she said.