Netanyahu’s strategy is war, war and more war

June 25, 2024

At least it is now clear: Benjamin Netanyahu has a strategy for the war in the Gaza Strip, and this commits his country to a conflict for an indefinite period of time.

That seems to be the only logical conclusion from the television interview that Israel’s prime minister gave to Channel 14 on Sunday, which was as disturbing as it was revealing. In his first meeting with the domestic media since the Hamas terror attack more than eight months ago, Netanyahu rejected the terms of a US-brokered, UN Security Council-approved ceasefire proposal for Gaza and said he was ready to open a second front against Hezbollah in Lebanon.

This is not to deny that Israel faces extremely difficult choices, nor to absolve Hamas of primary responsibility for the catastrophe it has inflicted on Palestinians in Gaza since October 7. But it is increasingly difficult to dismiss the claims of Israeli critics who claim that Netanyahu needs the war to prevent his government from being overthrown by the right and to hold himself accountable for security failures. Hamas’s Gaza leader Yahya Sinwar shares this need for continued war. He believes – rightly – that it serves his goal of weakening and ultimately destroying Israel.
Netanyahu told reporters that the intense phase of the war in Gaza will end “soon” and give way to a new phase in which Israel will maintain security control in the Gaza Strip and “annihilate” remaining Hamas forces if necessary. He also said Israel would transfer responsibility for civil administration to unspecified Palestinians (though not the Palestinian Authority) supported by countries in the region.

At the same time, however, Netanyahu ruled out any path to a Palestinian state, saying he would only accept a temporary ceasefire to secure the release of hostages still held by Hamas, after which fighting would have to resume. The prime minister’s office appears to have since backed away from that statement, saying Israel remains committed to the US-led peace proposal that aims to end hostilities permanently – even if the process is divided into stages. Israel’s Arab neighbors, meanwhile, have made clear that they would only engage in post-war Gaza if there is a permanent ceasefire and a roadmap to a Palestinian state.

In other words, the only viable element of Netanyahu’s strategy is the long-term military occupation of Gaza. Given the explosive situation in the West Bank, where hardliners in the Israeli cabinet have defunded the Palestinian Authority and supported Jewish settler activities, the prospects for any kind of settlement are even bleaker.

Most worrying for the fledgling state of Israel is Netanyahu’s announcement that he will redeploy troops released from the Gaza war to Israel’s northern border with Lebanon. Israel will fight on multiple fronts if necessary to prevent Hezbollah from firing the rockets and missiles that have led to the evacuation of Israeli towns and villages along the border.

Apparently concerned that Netanyahu is now planning a full-scale invasion, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah last week threatened war “without restraints, without rules and without limits” if Israeli forces invade. That seems increasingly likely.

All of this runs counter to the core goals of the US administration: to end the bloodshed in Gaza, which is affecting both American interests in the Middle East and President Joe Biden’s re-election chances, while also preventing an escalation into a regional war that could drag not only Hezbollah but also its patron Iran into it. Here, too, Netanyahu is taking a tough approach. On Sunday, he reiterated his claims – vehemently rejected by Washington officials – that the US had reduced its arms deliveries to Israel, with only a few having come in the last four months.

The details of the US arms shipments are not public, but this appears to be a blatant attempt by Netanyahu to scapegoat the US for his own failure to achieve the unrealistic goal of eliminating Hamas. As I and many others have said, it is possible to punish Hamas militarily and weaken its ability to attempt a second October 7, but not make it disappear unless you get all the Palestinians out of Gaza. No amount of weapons will change that.

Next month, Netanyahu is likely to take his confrontational approach even further and address the US Congress during the presidential campaign. Whatever Israel’s extraordinary political survivor may say, this is an aggressive and deeply partisan move.

As with so much of what he does, Netanyahu’s hard-line approach will enjoy the support of many Israelis who are still traumatized by October 7 and long for the sense of security they once enjoyed. But that confidence proved to be an illusion. Netanyahu’s strategy risks expanding the war on multiple fronts, crowding out potential Arab partners and inflicting lasting damage on the bipartisan American support that has ensured Israel’s security for decades.

This will please Hamas and prevent the collapse of the Netanyahu government. In the longer term, however, it promises disaster for Israel, Lebanon and the Palestinian people. Tens of thousands of Israelis protested over the weekend, demanding the return of all hostages and early elections to elect a government better able to lead Israel out of the deadlock of violence into which Netanyahu and Hamas have led it. And they were right.

Marc Champion is a columnist for Bloomberg Opinion covering Europe, Russia and the Middle East. He was previously Istanbul bureau chief for The Wall Street Journal.

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)