The next phase of the Israeli war in the Gaza Strip

It appears that Israel is scaling back the intensity of its war in Gaza – just as another battle it is waging is coming to an end.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu indicated in a television interview on Sunday that he intends to move part of the Israeli military to the northern border to fight against the Lebanese-based Hezbollah. Were it not for the war in Gaza, that conflict might already be drawing the world’s attention. Israel’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant is also visiting Washington this week, in part to discuss the implications of this escalation with US officials.

But in the same interview and another one the following Monday, Netanyahu, in his typical manner, made contradictory statements about his intentions regarding the future of the war in Gaza.

In his first interview on Sunday, Netanyahu appeared to rule out a permanent ceasefire in Gaza, which would be a prerequisite of the deal put forward by President Joe Biden last month to release the remaining Israeli hostages. But the Israeli president also said the military would soon cease its activities in Gaza.

“The intense phase of the war will end very soon… But that does not mean that the war will be over,” Netanyahu said. “I am ready to make a partial deal that will bring some of the people back to us. That is no secret. But we are determined to continue the war after the ceasefire.”

On Monday, however, Netanyahu seemed to back off from his comments.

“We stand by the Israeli proposal for a hostage deal, which President Biden welcomed. Our position has not changed. Second, which does not contradict the first, we will not end the war until we have eliminated Hamas,” he said in a speech to the Israeli parliament.

It is impossible to hold both positions, and there remains little clarity about where Netanyahu stands.

However, one thing is becoming increasingly clear: Israel’s war is entering a new phase. The main reason for this is the increasing tensions along Israel’s northern border with Lebanon.

Netanyahu may say publicly that he is in favor of a ceasefire, but Mairav ​​Zonszein, Israel expert at the International Crisis Group, said the international community should view Netanyahu’s statements with “caution.” His actions may be more revealing in deciphering his intentions in Gaza.

“We can look at how he has approached the situation from the beginning. That is, he is not interested in a strategy in this war that has some kind of endgame, some kind of exit strategy where the hostages are the priority,” she said.

Netanyahu’s actions so far are consistent with the three-phase plan for Gaza that he and his advisers developed at the beginning of the war: first, the destruction of Hamas’ military and governing capacity in Gaza (a goal that many security experts, including in Israel, consider impossible); second, the “elimination of pockets of resistance” in Gaza through lower-intensity fighting; and third, the “establishment of a new security regime” in Gaza that removes Israel’s “responsibility for everyday life” there.

Israel has not even achieved its first objective. In this sense, Netanyahu may not intend to sign a ceasefire in the near future, even if Israel could scale back its operations in Gaza somewhat. This is because he relies on a right-wing religious-nationalist coalition that wants the war to continue. This coalition keeps him in power despite widespread calls in Israel for early elections and his resignation after the war. It also protects him from an ongoing corruption trial.

But his public comments have at times suggested he is willing to agree to a permanent ceasefire. This may be an attempt to appease the families of the remaining Israeli hostages and the United States, Israel’s closest ally, on which it relies for military and political support. The hostages’ families have recently increased pressure on Netanyahu to agree to a ceasefire deal that would bring their captured loved ones home. Biden has also pushed for a ceasefire proposal and wants to end the war, ideally before the U.S. elections in November.

Netanyahu is “trying to simultaneously signal to Biden and the world that he is ready for a deal, but at the same time is pandering to his base and his own political interests by not agreeing to the deal,” Zonszein said.

All this suggests that a ceasefire may not be imminent. But with each day that Israel delays a ceasefire, the threat on its northern border with Lebanon grows.

For months, Israel has been locked in a firefight with Hezbollah, an Iran-backed militant Islamist organization and Lebanese political party.

Hezbollah, which is classified as a terrorist organization by many countries, initially began its campaign by saying it stood “in solidarity with the victorious Palestinian resistance.” The group has said it will not stop its attacks on Israel’s northern border until a ceasefire is reached in Gaza. But it is growing increasingly impatient with ceasefire talks, which Hamas and Israel appear unable to reach an agreement on eight months after the Gaza war began.

As my colleague Joshua Keating has argued, the casualties and displacement in Israel and Lebanon caused by this conflict in the north have so far been far less than the horrific toll in the south. But “given the military strength of both sides, it could have been – and perhaps will be – much worse.”

Netanyahu did not seem to indicate that a ground offensive in Lebanon was imminent. However, a sharp escalation with Hezbollah could have devastating consequences, as demonstrated by Israel’s previous wars with Hezbollah in 1996 and 2006. Both of these conflicts resulted in heavy civilian casualties in Lebanon, with more than 1,200 people killed in total.

It would also be a black mark on the US, which has supported Israel since the beginning of the war and played a leading role in ceasefire negotiations aimed at maintaining stability in the Middle East. Over the past eight months, US officials such as National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan have repeatedly stressed that one of the US’s key objectives is to “try to prevent this conflict that is currently raging in Israel and Gaza from escalating into a regional conflict.”

“The US should take Israeli statements and actions seriously – and take action itself to curb Israel’s recklessness,” said Thanassis Cambanis, director of the progressive think tank Century International. “The US government is becoming ever more deeply embroiled in Israel’s (alleged) war crimes and what has proven to be a humanitarian disaster and, beyond that, an epic strategic blunder.”

Now, both Israel and Hezbollah are preparing for the possibility that the so-far contained hostilities on the border could escalate into an all-out war that could engulf the entire Middle East. Hezbollah recently released drone footage of an Israeli military base, suggesting there are gaps in the country’s air defense system that the group could exploit. Israel, meanwhile, plans to move troops currently stationed in Gaza to its northern border.