Value Play in the Rangers game against the Brewers
Rangers vs Brewers, 8:10 ET
Rangers vs Brewers, 8:10 ET
Have you ever had that feeling where everything seems to be going well but still isn’t quite going the way you thought it would? The idea that things are acceptable but not quite the way you thought they would. Almost like you’re satisfied but not quite happy. That’s the best way to describe this month of baseball betting for me. It was beautiful at first, then it turned grim, and it’s been a rollercoaster of games since then. I mention this mainly because I want readers to know the current form, and just because you end up reading an article and it’s a winner doesn’t mean they’re all going to be a winner. Just like if it’s a loser, not all of them are going to be losers. I’m on the hunt for a winner and I think I’ve found one in the Rangers vs. Brewers game.
The Rangers come to Milwaukee looking to leave with a .500 record at the end of the three-game series. It’s been an interesting 10 days for the Rangers, as they’ve lost five games in a row and are now on a four-game winning streak. The worst loss was a three-game sweep to their division opponents, the Seattle Mariners. With the Mariners leading the division, that’s not the team you want to lose to. Still, it was nice for them to rebound a bit, and the good news is that Max Scherzer debuted for 2024 yesterday and looked very good. They don’t have an ace on the mound today, but they do have a reliable pitcher in Michael Lorenzen. For the season, Lorenzen is 4-3 with a 3.00 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. Both numbers are strong, but not in the top MLB rankings because he hasn’t pitched enough innings to qualify. He was better on the road than he was in Texas, which is encouraging for today’s contest. He’s also made six good starts in his last seven games. Lorenzen has faced Brewers hitters in 30 total at-bats. He’s allowed just two hits. Christian Yelich shouldn’t start today, as he’s hitting just 2 for 17 against Lorenzen.
MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN – JUNE 11: Freddy Peralta #51 of the Milwaukee Brewers throws a pitch in the third inning against the Oakland Athletics at American Family Field on June 11, 2023 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images)
The Brewers might be one of the few MLB teams to fly under the radar this season with how well they play. Their lineup has been as reliable as any this year and could be a very tough opponent in the playoffs. Most of them have some playoff experience now, so this could be the year they finally win a few series and get to the postseason. Of course, that doesn’t just depend on their lineup. The bullpen hasn’t been bad, but no longer has the fearsome Josh Hader arm it once had. The rotation is also a little concerning, as their best arm is Freddy Peralta. Peralta is good, but I don’t think he’ll be mistaken for an ace either. Peralta gets the ball tonight against the Rangers. This season, Peralta has a record of 5-4 with a 4.06 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. Good numbers, but more of a second or third man than the one you want to have at the start of a playoff series. He also struggled in Milwaukee this season, posting a 4.91 ERA compared to a 3.49 ERA on the road. His last home start was a disaster, allowing the Reds six earned runs on 10 hits in 5.1 innings. The Rangers hitters have seen Peralta, but not often, as they hit just 9 of 36 against him.
Unless I’m missing something, that line seems way off. The Brewers are -180 favorites here and I think this is more of a pick’em. The Rangers should be able to win this game with Lorenzen. I like Peralta (even though my description above wasn’t exactly a glowing recommendation), but I don’t think this is a good spot for him. The Rangers are also playing better baseball than the Brewers right now. I understand that the Rangers aren’t as good on the road and the Brewers are good at home, but the value is too high. I’m picking the Rangers at +144 after five innings.
For more sports betting information and moves, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024
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