Analysis: Putin may need weapons from North Korea’s Kim for the Ukraine war, but what is he willing to give in return?

Hong Kong
CNN
—

In his first visit to North Korea in more than two decades, Russian President Vladimir Putin appears intent on securing the isolated country’s continued support for his grueling war in Ukraine.

Last year, Putin intensified his contacts with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un as his weapons stockpiles ran out. Since a historic summit between the two leaders in September, ammunition and missiles have also been flowing from the country to Russia, several governments say, although both Pyongyang and Moscow deny these deliveries.

But while the leaders’ meeting in the globally isolated Soviet-style capital of Pyongyang offers the two autocrats an opportunity to discuss expanding their cooperation, observers warn it will have implications far beyond the battlefield in Ukraine.

Putin’s Arrive in Pyongyang in the early hours of Wednesday local time for the two-day visit represents significant progress for a partnership founded on shared hostility towards the West and its allies – a partnership that empowers both leaders but deepens global fault lines.

The two are expected to sign a new strategic partnership agreement. According to the Kremlin, Putin said ahead of the visit that they would “shape the architecture of equal and indivisible security in Eurasia.”

“The relationship is not just about necessity,” said Edward Howell, a politics lecturer at Britain’s Oxford University who focuses on the Korean peninsula. “We see the two states forming an increasingly concerted united front and alignment against the United States and the West.”

The timing of the visit underscores these differences: It came immediately after Putin’s meeting with his close ally, Chinese President Xi Jinping, last month. In addition, the democratic leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) had used a summit in Italy to once again express their solidarity against Moscow’s war.

In addition, North Korea is railing against growing security cooperation between the United States and its allies South Korea and Japan, and is raising concerns about its escalating rhetoric and ongoing tests in support of a vast illegal weapons program.

It is not known what Pyongyang will get in return for its support of Russia’s war, but governments from Seoul to Washington will be watching closely to see how far the warmongering Russian president, who in the past supported international controls on North Korea’s illegal weapons program, is willing to go in supporting Kim’s warmongering regime.

What do Russia and North Korea want from each other?

In the months after Kim drove his armored train through the country’s Far East to a summit with Putin in September, North Korean weapons apparently poured into Russia – and were fired during its attack on Ukraine.

Russia has received more than 10,000 shipping containers – the equivalent of 260,000 tons of ammunition or ammunition accessories – from North Korea since September, a US statement said in February. Russian forces have also fired at least 10 North Korean missiles at Ukraine since September, a US official said in March.

The weapons may be of lower quality than Russian ones, but they have helped Russia replenish its dwindling stockpiles and keep up with the arms support Ukraine receives from the West, observers say. The deal could also allow North Korea to gain real intelligence on how its weapons work and generally increase its exports.

In an article published in North Korea’s state media ahead of the visit, Putin thanked Pyongyang for its “unwavering support” of Russia’s war in Ukraine and said the two countries were “ready to confront the ambitions of the collective West.”

It is widely believed that Putin wants to use his visit, which Kim invited him to last September, to secure continued support.

What is less well known is exactly what Pyongyang has received in return. South Korean officials have said the North is receiving food supplies and other essential goods from Russia and that there is no shortage of supplies for the sanctions-hit economy, which is short of food, fuel and raw materials – and which also wants to advance its space, missile and nuclear programs.

At their meeting in September, which appropriately took place at a rocket launch facility, Putin signaled his willingness to help North Korea develop its space and satellite programs.

Since then, there have been signs that such support has taken place. For example, a few weeks after the visit, North Korea’s first military reconnaissance satellite, Malligyong-1, was successfully launched after two previous failed attempts.

Such satellites could help North Korea improve its ground-based military capabilities, for example by enabling the country to more precisely attack its opponent’s forces with its own missiles.

United Nations member states are prohibited from directly or indirectly supporting North Korea’s missile programs or from participating in arms deliveries to Pyongyang.

But according to experts, Kim is also after access to the know-how for a number of modern Russian weapons, as well as technologies related to uranium enrichment, reactor design and nuclear propulsion for submarines.

According to analysts, the North Korean leader considers his weapons programs to be essential to the survival of his regime.

“Kim Jong Un will be interested in asking the world for something from Russia. Whether he gets it or not is another question,” said Ankit Panda, a senior fellow in the nuclear policy program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think tank in Washington.

It is unlikely that Putin would be “overly eager to initiate cooperation on these issues (in the area of ​​nuclear technologies) when there is a long list of less sensitive technologies that the Russians can part with,” such as improving radar or surface-to-air missile systems, he said.

When asked last week about Western concerns that Russia was considering sharing sensitive technologies with Pyongyang, a Kremlin spokesman said the “potential of the two countries to develop bilateral relations” was “profound” and “should not worry or be questioned by anyone.”

However, for Kim, who is deeply isolated on the world stage, any support from Putin, the head of state of a permanent member state of the UN Security Council, would be a great boon.

For Putin, too, the visit is an opportunity to send a signal – or a threat – that Russia is not alone.

“Putin is emphasizing that Russia has friends – and is spreading the idea that the war is unwinnable for Ukraine because Russia will not run out of weapons,” said John Erath, senior policy director at the nonprofit Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation in Washington.

The Russian president may also see the relationship with Kim as an opportunity to raise the specter of nuclear war by exploiting “US and South Korean concerns about North Korea” so that “Ukraine’s friends force them to seek a negotiated settlement on Russia’s terms,” ​​Erath added.

Putin on Friday laid out his peace terms ahead of a Ukraine-backed international peace summit over the weekend, which Russia did not attend. They included the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from four partially occupied regions – a position that Kiev and its allies see as hopeless.

And in a letter published in North Korea’s state media ahead of the visit, Putin portrayed both countries as opponents of what he described as a US attempt to impose a “neo-colonialist dictatorship” on the world.

Observers agree that at this point it is unlikely that Putin will directly support North Korea’s nuclear program, as neither Putin nor his close partner Xi want a nuclear confrontation in the region.

However, it has also become clear that closer relations between North Korea and Russia, as well as the growing divide between Russia, China and the West, are undermining international efforts to control North Korea’s weapons program.

In March, Russia vetoed a UN resolution calling for the reinstatement of an independent panel of experts to investigate Russia’s violations of Security Council sanctions. China abstained from the vote.

Both countries had blocked any movement in the Council regarding North Korea in recent years because they were skeptical of the US-backed sanctions.

According to former U.S. ambassador to Russia and National Security Council official Michael McFaul, today’s deeper rifts contrast with the cooperation between Russia, China and the U.S. in recent decades.

He cited his experience during former US President Barack Obama’s administration in non-proliferation efforts with regard to North Korea and Iran.

“(Back then) we were working with the Russians on both fronts… we met, we had the same goals… and the Chinese were on our side on both issues,” McFaul said last month in a podcast hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank.

“And now look at where we are today. The exact opposite is true. We are not working together in any of those ways. This is a completely new and tragic world.”