Bernie’s Redbird Review: Michael Siani’s value to the Cardinals continues to grow.

THE REDBIRD REVIEW

We’ve come to admire Michael Siani’s defense in center field. Siani is practically tied with Washington rookie Jacob Young at the top of the center field list in both defensive runs saved and outs above average. Siani will certainly be in the conversation when Gold Glove talks come up.

More than capable of preventing doubles, Siani can shut down triples and crush singles with his fast, wide-ranging and limitless defense. Siani could cover Forest Park if you asked him to.

I think we should rethink our overall assessment of Siani’s value to the Cardinals in 2024. We don’t think Siani is an asset offensively, but he’s trying to change the perception.

Here are some numbers about Siani’s batting performance that might surprise you. This isn’t to say Siani is Jim Edmonds or anything. For heaven’s sake, no. But what I’m sharing here is to show Siani’s gradual improvement with more playing time.

– In 77 at-bats since June 16, Siani has a .288 batting average with a .316 on-base percentage and a .397 slugging percentage. Big numbers? No. But context is necessary. Those are good numbers for a defensive ace who saves his pitchers runs.

– Since June 16, Siani ranks third in the Cardinals batting average with a .288 average, behind only Brendan Donovan and Alec Burleson.

– Siani’s .316 OBP since June 16 is higher than that of Paul Goldschmidt, Masyn Winn and Nolan Gorman.

– Siani’s slug percentage of .397 since June 16 is the same as Winn’s and higher than the slugging rates of Gorman and Nolan Arenado.

– Siani’s OPS of .713 since June 16 is the fourth-best among regular-season Cardinals. In addition, his OPS of .713 during that time also surpasses Arenado (.707) and Goldschmidt (.713).

– Siani also leads the Cardinals in stolen bases (6) since June 16.

Siani continues to heat things up…

– Since June 24, he has a .309 overall batting average, but has crushed right-handed pitchers with a .325 average, .357 OBP and .375 slug. His wRC+ against right-handers during that time is 12 percent above league average on offense.

– Siani’s slugging percentage (.375) against RHP since June 24 is higher than Goldschmidt (.361) and Arenado (.328). Oh dear.

– Siani’s OPS of .732 against right-handers since June 24 places him ahead of Gorman (.704), Lars Nootbaar (.683), Arenado (.646) and Goldschmidt (.564).

– Siani, who bats left-handed, doesn’t often get to bat against lefties, but even then he has hit 4 of 15 against them (.267) since June 24.

– Siani scored 4 of 10 points in Atlanta over the weekend, helping the Cardinals win two of three games against the Braves.

Deficiencies? Sure. Siani strikes out too often, doesn’t walk much, and doesn’t have enough power. And all the positive numbers I’ve mentioned here are more in the small sample box. But the point is that Siani has made progress offensively. And he’s been a really good baserunner and small-ball specialist all along.

As an inexperienced major league hitter who has earned a larger role with the big club for defensive reasons, Siani’s improvement on offense only increases his value.

Since June 16, only three St. Louis fielders have more Wins Above Replacement than Siani: Brendan Donovan, Alec Burleson and Willson Contreras.

Siani has a WAR of 1.1 this season. That may not seem like much, but among big league outfielders, Siani’s WAR of 1.1 is on par with Corbin Carroll, the reigning NL Rookie of the Year. And it’s the same as Jesse Winker and Mike Yastrzemski.

Siani’s 1.1 WAR for the full season is above that of many notable outfielders, including Cody Bellinger, Randy Arozarena, Jarred Kelenic, Seiya Suzuki, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Will Castro, Michael Conforto, Lane Thomas, Mark Canha and Brent Rooker.

Bellinger was injured just before the All-Star break (broken finger), but that’s not the reason Siani has surpassed Bellinger in WAR. Bellinger has more batting appearances (258) this season than Siani (225).

Before Ronald Acuna Jr. suffered a season-ending knee injury, he had 1.1 WAR in 222 batting appearances. Siani has 1.1 WAR in 225 PA. If you believe in the value of defense, Siani has a ton of value, and those WAR metrics shouldn’t offend you.

What does this prove, if anything?

A) Siani is a surprise. A very pleasant surprise. That’s always a plus for a competitive team. I don’t think any of us would have predicted that Siani would be in such a prominent role until the All-Star break.

He went from being a mediocre major league player to being one of the Cardinals’ most valuable players on their way to the playoffs. His rise coincided with the Cardinals’ best winning streak, and it’s one of their best storylines of the season.

B) You never know anything about a player until he gets a real chance.

C) St. Louis’ front office was smart to acquire Siani from the Reds on waivers last September. Signing a young player with incredible speed and excellent defensive range is never a bad idea. Siani’s sprint speed ranks in the top 20 percent of MLB players this season, and his defensive range ranks near the top of the Statcast rankings.

D) Serendipity is one thing. The Cardinals weren’t going to give up their spot in center field to Siani; they’d be the first to admit it. But plans for center field were changed and redrawn after Tommy Edman, Dylan Carlson and Lars Nootbaar were injured and rookie prospect Victor Scott II had a poor audition. The Cardinals didn’t want to let Nootbaar play center field regularly, but he can be used there – but not if he’s on the injured list for two extended stints during the first half of the season. Hey, Siani! Your turn. And I have to give manager Oli Marmol credit for sticking with Siani as his de facto starter. St. Louis’ pitchers are happy with the manager’s decision.

E) Siani is a real eye-catcher with his exceptional defense. That would be the case even if the guy had a .168 batting average. But he’s better than that. Siani is developing into a more capable hitter with lots of repetition in the batter’s box.

I don’t lose sight of the fact that Siani’s 66 wRC+ for the season is 34 percent below the league average on offense. Yes, that’s pretty bad. But compared to Siani’s offensive start this season, you have to like his development.

Compared to his numbers after the first two months of the regular season, Siani’s improvement since the beginning of June looks like this:

+ OPS rose by 108 points
+ Batting average increased by 60 points
+ Slugging percentage increased by 88 points
+ wRC+ increased by 25 points

Siani’s influence on the campaign is undeniable.

Since May 12, the Cardinals are 36-20 (.643) with Siani in the starting lineup.

And they are 20-10 (.667) in Siani’s last 30 games as a starter.

Thank you for reading …

-Bernie

Bernie, who will be inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023, has been offering informed opinions and perspectives on St. Louis sports in his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and threads @miklaszb

For weekly map talks, listen to the Seeing Red podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Statistics used in my baseball columns come from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions and Cots Contracts, unless otherwise noted.

Bernie Miklasz

For the past 36 years, Bernie Miklasz has entertained, educated and connected with generations of St. Louis sports fans.

Bernie is best known for his 26 years as lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch, but has also written for The Athletic, Dallas Morning News and Baltimore News American. A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has hosted radio shows in St. Louis, Dallas, Baltimore and Washington DC.

Bernie, his wife Kirsten and their cats live in the Skinker-DeBaliviere neighborhood in St. Louis.

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