Why Israel’s attack on Yemen will not deter the Houthis

The Houthis’ nighttime drone attack on Tel Aviv, Israel, from 2,000 kilometers away on July 19 marked a new phase of tensions in the Middle East.

The event made it clear that Yemen’s Houthi rebels have become a serious threat in the Red Sea region after breaking through Israel’s security perimeter by firing hundreds of rockets and drones.

The Houthis’ attack also reinforces the group’s role as another key player in the clashes between Israel and groups close to Iran and increases the risk of further attacks. After the incident, a Houthis spokesman said: “We are prepared for any Israeli response against Yemen.”

This expectation came true when the Israeli Air Force heavily bombed the Red Sea port city of Hodeidah on July 20, targeting civilian infrastructure. Six people were killed, at least 87 were injured, and huge fires broke out that could still be seen the next day.

Since the port of Hodeidah is a major entry point for much of Yemen’s goods, experts warn that the attack and future attacks could hamper aid to the Yemeni population, which is already heavily dependent on international aid after years of war.

“The target of the attack harms the average Yemeni more than the Houthis’ ability to launch attacks on the Red Sea or Israel,” said Adam Clements, a retired U.S. Army attaché for Yemen.

From Israel’s perspective, the Houthi attack on Tel Aviv, which killed one person and injured several others, exposed further security vulnerabilities because the Houthi drone slipped through Israel’s radar system.

Israel’s response underscores its efforts to restore deterrence after the breach, sending a “message” not only to the Houthis but also to other Iranian-backed groups in the region.

Yemen is now the sixth country that Israel has attacked since the outbreak of the Gaza war on October 7. The countries already attacked include Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Iran.

Houthi strength grows

The Israeli raid was among the most brutal attacks on Yemen, even compared to the numerous joint US-UK operations since January aimed at preventing the Israeli faction from disrupting international trade in the Red Sea since December 2023.

The Houthis portrayed this as a form of “sanctions” against Israel in response to its brutal war against Gaza.

The group is a thorn in Israel’s side and, together with other Iran-backed groups, is putting additional pressure on the country. Israel’s commercial port of Eilat went bankrupt following the Houthi attacks and on July 21, the port announced it would lay off around half of its workers, highlighting the group’s disruptive potential.

However, Israel’s decision to attack Yemen could be a net gain for the Houthis, as it could further increase their popularity among Yemenis and the pro-Palestinian populations of the Middle East. Domestically, it will likely help the Houthis consolidate their influence in the territories they captured during the Yemen war.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the attack on Hodeidah was aimed at preventing the Houthis from obtaining weapons from Iran, but there are doubts whether Israel will be able to deter the Houthis from further attacks.

“Israel’s retaliation against the Houthis will not stop the Houthis from striking again. Instead, it will give the Houthis a propaganda win and a pretext to crack down even harder on dissidents,” wrote Thomas Juneau, a professor at the University of Ottawa, on X.

After the Israeli attack, a Houthis spokesman said it would “only strengthen the resolve of the Yemeni people.” The group regularly holds demonstrations every Friday with millions of Yemenis in the capital Sana’a to show solidarity with the Palestinians and to unite people behind the Houthis’ rule in Yemen.

Against the backdrop of escalating tensions between Israel and Iran in the region, these clashes also signal the Houthis’ emergence as an influential regional player, bolstered by increasing support from Iran.

The deployment of an Iranian-made Samad-3 model identified by the Israeli military as a modernized one, which the Houthis call “Yafa” (named after the Palestinian city on whose remains Tel Aviv was built), underscores their growing capabilities.

It is an addition to the Houthis’ arsenal, which already includes state-of-the-art Iranian-made drones, as well as surface-to-surface missiles, anti-ship missiles, loitering munitions and reportedly hypersonic missiles.

Thanks to these assets, the Houthis have quickly become a major threat to the region, able to exert influence in Yemen and threaten Red Sea trade as well as Israel for some time to come.

Integration into the Iranian-led axis

Over time, the Houthis have grown considerably in strength, capturing much territory since the 2015 Yemen war against the Saudi-led coalition, after beginning as a small revivalist movement in 1992.

Iran’s support has played a major role in empowering the Houthis, and this alignment has deepened over the past nine months. While Israel continues to shell Gaza and there are almost daily skirmishes with Hezbollah on the Lebanese-Israeli border, the Houthis have now opened a new front in coordination with their allies within the self-proclaimed “Axis of Resistance” directed against Israel and the United States.

By strengthening their ties with Iranian allies in other regional contexts, the Houthis have signaled an unprecedented level of strategic coordination and cooperation among Iran’s armed allies.

“This joint escalation is not only a response to Israeli airstrikes on southern Lebanon last night that caused civilian casualties, but also appears to be a strategic response to Netanyahu’s attempts to torpedo ceasefire talks ahead of his visit to the US next week,” wrote Amal Saad, a politics lecturer at Cardiff University, after the Houthi attack on X.

Nabil Al-Bukiri, a Yemeni researcher based in Istanbul, said The new Arab, “There is no doubt that the Houthis have emerged as a force in the region, largely thanks to their alliance with Iran, Hezbollah and the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces.”

Al-Bukiri added that the latest attack shows how the Houthis have consolidated their position within the Iran-led regional axis against Israel, adding that Tehran’s support has made attacks on Israel and trade in the Red Sea possible.

As mentioned above, the Houthis have their own internal ambitions and may be less dependent on Tehran than other allies, such as Hezbollah and the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF).

However, the Houthis have actively sought to position themselves within the “axis of resistance,” including bilaterally with Hezbollah and Iran’s proxies based in Iraq.

Most notably, the Houthis have proactively built ties with Iranian-backed groups in Iraq, including through bilateral visits. To showcase these ties, on July 2 the Houthis claimed that they had attacked Haifa, Israel, in a joint attack with Iraqi groups, after previously attacking Israeli ships in Haifa port.

“It is not surprising that Tehran is promoting synergies among its allies, but what is striking is the Houthis’ haste to announce bilateral cooperation so publicly, given their relatively new status as a regional military actor,” wrote Adnan al-Jabarni at the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies.

In his report, he cited sources saying that in March this year the Houthis strengthened their ties with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its allies based in Iraq to coordinate regional naval operations in the wake of the Gaza war.

Future impacts

There are clear signs that an alliance is emerging among Iran’s allies, operating partly outside of Tehran’s direct control. Analysts say this reflects a more autonomous but still more cohesive axis.

The Houthis undoubtedly want to play a role in supporting attacks on Israel. Indeed, the faction has warned of a “massive response” to the Israeli attack on Hodeidah, suggesting that the faction is prepared to continue the attacks, whether directly against Israel or in the Red Sea.

On July 21, the Israeli army said it had intercepted a surface-to-surface missile from Yemen that the Houthis had fired in response to Israel’s bombing of Hodeidah.

Israel could retaliate for possible Houthis attacks in the future, but as the Saudi-led airstrikes on Yemen from 2015 until the UN-brokered ceasefire in 2022 show, the Houthis can largely withstand – or even benefit from – airstrikes.

Even if there were further clashes and Israeli attacks – which should no longer be ruled out – it is questionable whether Tel Aviv can achieve what Saudi Arabia, the United States and Britain have failed to do.

As with Iran’s other allies, the intensity of the Houthi attacks will likely depend on whether a ceasefire is reached in Gaza.

But as tensions between Iran and Israel have escalated to new levels over the past decade, Houthi attacks are likely to remain a reality. For now, the faction has clearly established itself as an influential player within the “Axis of Resistance.”

Jonathan Fenton-Harvey is a journalist and researcher focusing on conflict, geopolitics and humanitarian issues in the Middle East and North Africa.

Follow him on Twitter: @jfentonharvey