Kyren Williams, De’Von Achane, James Cook

Draft day is full of excitement and anticipation, but it also comes with plenty of pitfalls. In 2024, some players have been consistently overvalued and have become traps for unwary fantasy managers. To help you avoid these missteps, we’ve compiled a list of the worst value picks based on Average Draft Position (ADP) from a group of Featured Pros analysts. These insights are designed to steer you away from players who are unlikely to deliver on their promises on draft day so you can make smarter picks and maximize your team’s potential.

Looking at our average draft position (ADP) and practicing mock drafts in Draft Wizard’s Mock Draft Simulator are great ways to develop a sense of when the players you’re looking to take might come off the board. Additionally, understanding each player’s range of results will help you assess whether each player is fairly valued, undervalued, or overvalued relative to their ADP.

ADP’s Worst Value Picks: Running Backs

Who is the worst pick at RB based on their current ADP and why?

De’Von Achane (RB – MIA)

“De’Von Achane doesn’t have enough volume or carry percentage in this offense to come anywhere close to paying off his current price. The Dolphins have rotated their running backs heavily, and the leading RB has had less than 60% carry share each of the last two years. In his full games, excluding his two one-carry games, he still averaged just 11.2 carries per game in 2023, behind late-round running back Gus Edwards (13.1), Brian Robinson (12.8), and nearly Tyler Allgeier (10.8). Phillip Lindsay is the only comparable running back in size/YPC, and had a major drop-off in efficiency the following year after his rookie year. It also hurts considerably that Miami lost two excellent offensive linemen in free agency and traded a third-round pick for a similar running back in Jaylen Wright, who has a much more ideal physique.”
– Justin Weigal (FantasySharks)

“De’Von Achane (RB8 in ADP) was outstanding as a rookie, finishing as the RB4 on a points-per-game basis, averaging 16.1 half-PPR fantasy points per game. In addition, he averaged 7.8 yards per run attempt, an explosive 12.6% run rate, and 1.36 fantasy points per opportunity (per Fantasy Points Data). Unfortunately, the numbers aren’t repeatable in 2024. More importantly, the explosive runner struggled to stay healthy as a rookie. After the Dolphins brought back Raheem Mostert and drafted Jaylen Wright, Achane shouldn’t be selected ahead of running backs like Derrick Henry (RB10) and Isiah Pacheco (RB11).”
– Michael Fanelli (FantasyPros)

“Raheem Mostert scored 18 touchdowns last season; that number is not only the best in the NFL, but also a Dolphins franchise record. De’Von Achane is being drafted like a top 10 RB as if Mostert won’t be on the team next season, which is far from the truth as Mostert is their leading RB and a surefire goal line TD machine. If you ignore Achane’s 200+ yard, 2 TD performance against the Broncos, most of his games were RB3 quality at best. They are paying a high price to draft an RB that will only play like an RB1 if the Dolphins offense scores 4+ TDs in a game, which won’t happen that often in 2024.”
– Muntradamus (Beastdome)

“De’Von Achane goes way too soon. While he has shown impressive explosiveness, there’s no reason to believe the Dolphins won’t continue to use a committee. In fact, they even spent a 2025 third-round pick to get Jaylen Wright. This will remain an ugly committee where Raheem Mostert or Wright get those valuable goal-line runs.”
– Ben Wasley (The Fantasy First Down)

“De’Von Achane is one of the most electrifying players in the NFL! Every time he touches the ball, he can finish it. His biggest problem is that he’s on a team with a lot of star players (Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert) who demand the ball and score touchdowns. Combined with the history and injury risk, Achane is a risky choice for RB8.”
– Adam Dove (The Fantasy Couriers)

“De’Von Achane is someone I don’t like because of his ADP value. Achane will be drafted in the late second round for a player who is the backup in Miami. His potential last year was outstanding, with nearly 1,000 all-purpose yards and 11 touchdowns in 11 games. The team still has Raheem Mostert, the RB1, and drafted Jaylen Wright with decent capital. It could very well be a full-fledged committee in Miami. Drafting Achane this early is betting his efficiency will continue, and I’d be reluctant to bet on that in the second round. I expect his 7.8 YPC and eight rushing touchdowns to regress in 2024.”
– Steven Pintado (The Fantasy Trainers)

James Cook (RB – BUF)

“James Cook. There is no (very little) doubt about the amount he will score in the air and on the ground, but there will always be a shortage of TDs. Josh Allen is too much of a fan of taking the ball in his own hands, and the draft selection of Ray Davis will affect him as well. Considering his draft cost, there are better options later on.”
– Richard King (King Fantasy Sports)

Kyren Williams (RB – LAR)

“Kyren Williams at No. 20 is just not a move I’ll make in fantasy this year. While Williams was great a year ago, Williams was almost automatically the RB1 in Los Angeles after Cam Akers was sent out of town. This offseason, Sean McVay brought in some real competition for Williams in Blake Corum, who I love. I also can’t rely on Williams staying healthy. Williams missed much of last season with an injury and didn’t come to OTAs because of a foot issue, which gave Corum a lot of time as the RB1 for the Rams. Corum is the Rams running back I’ll draft this year, not Williams.”
– Ed Birdsall (Sports Talking Points)

“Kyren Williams was excellent last season, but an ADP of RB8 for a running back with no draft capital and no track record is too much for me. We’ve seen this in the past where rookie running backs looked like fantasy stars on day three as rookies, only to have competition get drafted or acquired the following year, causing them to take a big step back. Blake Corum being drafted on day two of the 2024 NFL Draft because of his low draft capital is a nightmare for his value. We saw this with Tyler Allgeier and Dameon Pierce, and we may see it again with Kyren Williams.”
– Aaron St Denis (Fantasy Football Universe)

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