IAs if the deadly and destructive war between Israel and Hamas were not enough, fears are growing of an even greater confrontation between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah. Earlier this week, hours after the Lebanese militant group released a nine-minute video showing surveillance drones patrolling northern Israel, Israeli officials declared the country was ready for “all-out war” and approved plans for an offensive.
These developments come after almost daily border shelling since the October 7 Hamas attack, which forced tens of thousands of people to flee on both sides of the Israeli-Lebanese border and left at least 400 dead, the majority of them Hezbollah fighters.
After showing the drone footage, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah threatened to fight “without borders, without rules and without ceilings” if Israel expands the scope of the current conflict. Nasrallah even threatened to attack EU member state Cyprus if Israel gains access to its military facilities in the looming confrontation.
By finalizing its plans for a full-scale war, Israel is signaling its determination to change the current balance of power in the north, stem Hezbollah’s rocket fire, and possibly establish a de facto buffer zone several miles deep into Lebanese territory – even if that would mean a massive show of force.
In the coming days and weeks, the Biden administration will play a critical role in averting war or limiting its worst consequences, especially given Iran’s threat to intervene in the fight in Hezbollah’s defense. U.S. mediation can also provide diplomatic ways out once Israel and Hezbollah are willing to explore a political solution that could end their fighting.
Nasrallah made his latest threats following a visit to Beirut by Amos Hochstein, a senior adviser to Biden. Hochstein is a seasoned negotiator who successfully facilitated the demarcation of maritime borders between Israel and Lebanon in 2022, but he is no miracle worker. In his recent shuttle diplomacy between Jerusalem and Beirut, he explored ways to restore calm to the Israeli-Lebanese border without a ceasefire in Gaza. But Hezbollah flatly rejected the premise of his initiative. The group insists that the war in Gaza – which has outraged the Arab public because of the high death toll – must end first. The group also rejected US proposals to use its influence with Hamas, another Iran-backed group, to secure its agreement to the proposed ceasefire.
The mediators in Beirut have not given up completely. They continue to work quietly with Biden’s envoy to see if a concession other than a complete halt to Hezbollah rocket fire might be enough to bring about a political solution. Such a scenario could mean a relocation of Hezbollah’s elite troops and anti-tank units, which are one of the biggest concerns for the Israelis, away from the border. But it is far from clear whether such a proposal will be acceptable and sufficient for either party.
In fact, Hochstein was greeted in Jerusalem by a shared assessment that the situation on the northern border was no longer sustainable. Hezbollah would do well to understand that no Israeli government, even the most right-wing in the country’s history, can accept what Nasrallah described in his speech as a de facto buffer zone that his group has created on Israeli territory. For all Israelis, not just Netanyahu, the status quo is simply unacceptable.
Nor are the exaggerated threats by senior Israeli officials warning that “Beirut will not be immune” to destruction. An Israeli military offensive in Lebanon need not necessarily involve the destruction of entire apartment blocks in the Hezbollah stronghold of southern Beirut, as was the case in the last major war between the two sides in 2006. Such actions would push the conflict further up the escalation ladder and force a now much more capable Hezbollah to rain its ballistic missiles on Israeli cities, including Tel Aviv. US officials have expressed serious concerns that Israel’s sophisticated air defense systems could be overwhelmed by Hezbollah’s firepower, which is believed to include more than 100,000 missiles and swarms of suicide drones.
When Israeli and American defense ministers meet in Washington next week, they must clearly define the contours of the looming confrontation. It must be confined to the now largely depopulated border areas between Israel and Lebanon. And clear deterrent messages must be sent to Iran to prevent its direct involvement. This requires private assurances that the United States will continue to work actively toward de-escalation.
Ultimately, even Israel’s Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi recognizes that establishing a new status quo in the north requires an indirect agreement with Hezbollah. The outlines of such an agreement have been put forward by American and French mediators. They include a withdrawal of key Hezbollah troops up to 10 kilometers from the border, an increased presence of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), a peacekeeping force straddling the border, coupled with guarantees and strategic monitoring by the United States and France. Progress in resolving some of the disputed points along the border would further facilitate such an agreement.
Unfortunately, Washington has failed to force a ceasefire in Gaza. Moreover, Iran and Hezbollah are determined to continue demanding a price from Israel through Lebanon. A diplomatic solution is therefore not possible.
“War is the continuation of politics by other means,” said the Prussian military strategist Carl von Clausewitz. It seems as if the time for politics is coming to an end for Israel and Lebanon and the time for war is imminent.
