Jordan Love 2024 Fantasy Football Outlook

Jordan Love’s first full season as a starter for the Green Bay Packers went as smoothly as any of us expected.

While the Pack got off to a rocky start with a 3-6 start, Love and Co. managed to turn things around in Week 9.

As of Week 9, Green Bay was 7-3, including big wins over the Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions. Love had 2,667 passing yards and 21 touchdowns with just 3 interceptions during that 10-game span.

A stunning Wild Card victory over the Dallas Cowboys made Love even more famous. In that win, he rushed for 272 yards and 3 touchdowns with a 76.2% completion rate.

Consequently, Love’s fantasy football draft value has skyrocketed for the upcoming season. Can he exceed the lofty expectations? Let’s take a look at his outlook for the 2024-2025 season.

Jordan Love Fantasy Football Outlook

Love’s Breakout 2023 campaign

Fantasy football managers were understandably skeptical about whether Love could follow in Aaron Rodgers’ footsteps.

In his first season as a full-time center, Love had an average draft position (ADP) of 26 as a quarterback. The return on investment was astonishing.

Overall, Love rushed for 4,159 yards (seventh-highest in the NFL), 32 touchdowns (second-highest), and 11 interceptions (fifth-lowest among quarterbacks who attempted at least 500 passes). He also gained 247 yards on the ground and scored four touchdowns.

Those numbers were enough to earn him a QB5 finish. Love not only scored the fifth most fantasy points at the position, but also ranked sixth in points per game.

Going from a QB26 draft status to a QB5 draft spot was quite a jump. We won’t get as much back this time around. In ongoing fantasy football drafts, Love is currently the 8th QB taken off the board with pick 63, according to consensus ADP data from FantasyPros.

Much speaks for Love, whose young and deep The receiving spot offers a lot of potential and flexibility. But he’s also a top candidate for negative regression, which could make him overvalued in fantasy drafts. Let’s take a look at what the upcoming season could look like for Love.

The good and the evil

It takes two to tango, and Love has plenty of receivers to dance with. Green Bay’s wide receiver and tight end teams are strong and should form one of the top scoring offenses this season.

Love will be well positioned in his second season as a starter. Adversity was inevitable at the start of the 2023 season, and Green Bay’s playmaker had more interceptions (6) than touchdowns (2) through three games starting in Week 3. As we know, Love finally found his rhythm. If his second-half play is any indication of what to expect this season, he should be one of the top-performing fantasy players.

However, the underlying numbers show that there was an above-average performance in play last year and Love could now be affected by a regression.

As mentioned, Love threw 32 touchdowns last season (second most), but he only ranked 14th in yards per pass attempt (7.2), 20th in completion percentage (64.2%), 11th in pass rating, and 14th in pass success percentage.

While he ranked fifth in EPA per drop, the other numbers suggest a season with fewer than 32 touchdowns. Love obviously benefited from the volume, but it would be difficult to see the same volume this season. Not only did he participate in a full 17-game season, but the Packers scored a whopping 76.2% of their touchdowns through the air (fourth most).

Everything worked in Love’s favor. He had a 5.5% touchdown rate – the third highest behind Dak Prescott and Brock Purdy. Given his 14th YPA, 20th completion percentage and 11th passer rating, it’s hard to imagine him being able to maintain a top-3 touchdown rate.

Overall, Love scored 6.1 touchdowns above expectations (according to Brandon Gdula of FanDuel Research), the second most in the NFL.

Josh Jacobs joined the Pack in the offseason, so it’s fair to expect the Green Bay Packers to run the ball more often in the red zone.

Love is impressive and leads one of the most fantasy-relevant teams in the league, but we have to remember how much he overperformed last season.

Jordan Love Fantasy Football Projection

numberFire’s NFL season projections project Love to average 4,337.94 passing yards, 29.56 touchdowns, and 11.63 interceptions this season.

Even assuming a full 17-game season, projections suggest Love will be attacked by the touchdown regression monster.

numberFire also has Love averaging 163.61 yards and 1.66 touchdowns on the ground, which is less than the 4 rush scores he had last season. The Jacobs effect is in play.

With these projections in mind, Love is expected to finish the season as QB10. As mentioned, he is currently drafted as QB8 with pick 63.

It is noteworthy that according to numberFire, Dak Prescott and Kyler Murray are ahead of Love in the season projections, even though both players are currently behind Love in the draft.

That’s not to say we should get mad at Love. He’s entrenched in a fantasy-friendly system on a Green Bay team that touts a 9.5 overall win percentage and -138 over percentage. The Packers’ depth means Love won’t be as affected as other QBs if one of his top targets goes down, and Love himself has proven to be resilient in his career.

Green Bay’s subpar defense and +195 odds to win the NFC North also mean the Packers won’t be as vulnerable to garbage time, so Love is still a great candidate in the fantasy season. However, we have to be mindful of last year’s above-average performance and what that could mean for Love this season.

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The author named above is an employee of FanDuel and is not authorized to participate in public daily fantasy contests or place sports bets on FanDuel. Advice provided by the author does not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel. Following the author’s advice does not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports bets.