The war with China is closer than we think

In parallel with the exercises in Belarus, the Chinese Navy conducted naval exercises in the Taiwan Strait, violating the island’s airspace more often than ever before. And earlier this week, Russia and China joined in naval exercises with live ammunition in the South China Sea.

We tend to forget how closely intertwined the Chinese and Russian states are – symbolically and politically. The two powers have conducted numerous military exercises with Russia. Most land exercises in recent years, the so-called “peacekeeping missions,” have taken place either in Russia, China or other Shanghai Cooperation Organization states and have aimed at quelling social uprisings or major uprisings. Joint Sino-Russian exercises have also taken place in the sea and airspace, mostly in the Far East, with the exception of one naval exercise in the Baltic Sea in 2017.

All of this is significant because China has maintained a supposed “impartiality” in the war in Ukraine and called for peace between both sides. Yet while China has not directly supplied Russia with large quantities of weapons (as Iran or North Korea have), it has nevertheless provided Russia with critical resources for its war effort in the form of dual-use technology, while also funding Russia’s war economy through Western-sanctioned purchases of oil and gas.

Japan, a guest at this year’s NATO summit, warned against China’s escalating moves in the region during talks on opening a NATO liaison office in Tokyo. According to Japan’s recently published white paper on defense, China plans to double its nuclear arsenal to over 1,000 warheads by 2030. North Korea is also cited as a growing risk factor as the country seeks to increase its nuclear power and missile range to match the United States. In June, Russia and North Korea signed a mutual defense agreement that binds the two countries in all military conflicts.

This unholy axis is creating extraordinary security threats that will change the world as we know it. According to sources in their governments, the European allies on NATO’s eastern flank are considering acquiring a joint nuclear arsenal as a deterrent in an increasingly uncertain world, especially given the growing isolation of the United States. This could lead to an unprecedented shift toward wider nuclear proliferation, as a similar process is playing out in the Middle East.

When NATO celebrated earlier this month that it was the most successful military-political alliance in world history, the interconnectedness of global threats and the indivisibility of Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific security were a central theme in the speeches of all statesmen and women. NATO’s protective umbrella can no longer be limited to the North Atlantic, and the invitation of the four Indo-Pacific powers – Japan, South Korea, New Zealand and Australia – demonstrates this understanding.

In its final declaration, NATO rebuked China for its expansionist behavior and support for Russia. But declarations must be followed by actions. Restoring peace can only be achieved through the efforts of 32 allies united by a common vision. This should define NATO’s next 75 years.

Aliona Hlivco is executive director of the Henry Jackson Society, a think tank on transatlantic foreign policy and national security.

She is a regular contributor to the Telegraph’s daily podcast “Ukraine: The Latest”including our latest episodeWith over 85 million downloads, it is considered the most trusted daily source of war news on both sides of the Atlantic.