MLB series preview: The Mets head to Miami to start the second half

After a lackluster All-Star break, the Mets travel to Miami for a four-game series against the Marlins at loanDepot Park. The good news for the Marlins is that they are not the White Sox, who are the only team in baseball with a worse record than the Fish this season.

It’s not hard to see why the Marlins aren’t very good: Their offense is terrible. Their team wRC+ is 78, 22% below the league average, which is the second-worst in all of baseball and the worst in the National League. For comparison, the Mets’ WRC+ is 114 and the Dodgers, who have the best offense in baseball, are 118, meaning the Marlins are farther from average than the Dodgers. Of the offensive players who have played at least 40 games, the Marlins have only two players with an OPS+ at or above the league average, and one of them (Jazz Chisholm Jr.) is just about the league average while the other (Dane Myers) just hit the 40-game mark.

But that’s not all: their pitching is also very bad. The Marlins’ ERA is 112, which is the fourth worst in baseball and the second worst in the National League. However, their pitching is not nearly as bad as their offense, but when you have one of the two worst offenses and the two worst pitching in the NL combined, it’s no surprise that the team is struggling.

The bright spot for the Marlins is their bullpen with Tanner Scott, who has an impressive ERA+ of 329 so far this season. The bullpen hasn’t been great overall, but compared to their starting pitching and offense, there has to be a highlight.

The Mets’ offense is… well, it’s good, and since June 1, it’s the best in baseball. Their pitching isn’t quite as good, but the offense and starting pitching have been just good enough to hold on to a struggling bullpen.

That bullpen looks set to improve shortly, however, after the Mets acquired veteran reliever Alex Young from the Giants yesterday. Young isn’t exactly Goose Gossage, but he’s a reliable walk-on who’s been quietly good the past two seasons, posting a 171 ERA+ in 2022 and a 120 ERA+ in 2023. He’s only appeared in three games for the Reds in 2024, but it looks like he could outperform some of the chaff the Mets have put out to pasture this season.

The Mets also received good news that Sean Reid-Foley is on the mend and that Reed Garrett’s injury is not as serious as they feared. While these developments shouldn’t stop the Mets from looking for relief pitchers at the deadline, sometimes the bullpen is just about numbers, and the more halfway decent pitchers the Mets can field, the better.

The Mets have had an incredible June, going 9-4 so far in July. They seem a little more human, especially after losing multiple games to the Nationals and Pirates, both of whom the Mets significantly outperform, and after letting their ailing bullpen end the first half in a loss to the very bad Rockies. Citi played like a bandbox against the Rockies, but with the Mets playing on the road, there’s hope that the pitchers won’t be quite as prone to home runs.

The Mets couldn’t have asked for a smoother return to the season than the Marlins. They were 3-9 in July, narrowly beat the Reds on Sunday, but otherwise seemed lost this month. Last weekend they also allowed an absurd number of home runs; maybe there was something in the water?

Friday, July 19: Sean Manaea vs. Edward Cabrera at 7:10 p.m. EDT on SNY

Manaea (2024): 96.1 IP, 96 K, 40 BB, 9 HR, 3.46 ERA, 3.75 FIP, 88 ERA-

His first half ended with a strong start from Manaea marred by two home runs, but that was the Rockies series in a nutshell: way too many Colorado home runs. But Manaea hit seven, struck out nine and continued his recent streak of getting deeper into games than he was able to earlier in the year.

Cabrera (2024): 28.1 IP, 42 K, 15 BB, 8 HR, 8.26 ERA, 5.67 FIP, 200 ERA-

The Marlins have failed to get Cabrera to go six innings since his first start this season, and he hasn’t seen a fifth inning in his last three starts. Although he still throws a lot of pitches, Cabrera has been much more effective at limiting walks since returning to the rotation earlier this month than he was earlier this season. His strikeout numbers are impressive, but he allows far too much hard contact, like the four home runs the Reds let him in his last start (with the usual “Cincinnati is a bandbox” caveat duly noted).

Saturday, July 20: José Quintana vs. Roddery Muñoz at 4:10 p.m. EDT on WPIX

Quintana (2024): 101.2 IP, 79 K, 23 BB, 9 HR, 4.13 ERA, 5.01 FIP, 106 ERA-

Remember how I said the Mets had allowed a ton of home runs to the Rockies? Well, Quintana was responsible for four (!) of them, handing the Mets their only home loss on Sunday afternoon. If you can forget that, Quintana also had eight strikeouts and only two other hits that day. But Quintana has been solid overall lately and could still be a trade item for the Mets in a few weeks.

Muñoz (2024): 51.0 IP, 42 K, 26 BB, 4 HR, 5.47 ERA, 6.98 FIP, 133 ERA-

After three starts to begin the season, Muñoz has been with the team since June 8 and has shown consistent performance in his starts: a relatively low strikeout rate, too many hits, too many walks, too much hard contact, and he throws way too many pitches early in the game.

Sunday, July 21: Luis Severino vs. Trevor Rogers at 1:40 p.m. EDT on WPIX

Severino-Sergio (2024): 109.1 IP, 81 K, 37 BB, 12 HR, 3.78 ERA, 4.34 FIP, 96 ERA-

Severino got off to a rocky start against the Pirates on July 5, where he gave up seven earned runs on three home runs, but other than that, to quote Keith Hernandez, he’s been a steady Eddie over the last month. He’s still not quite as dominant as he was in his glory days with the Yankees, but his results are there and he’s managing to pitch smarter, deal with home runs and a limited strikeout rate to still get deep into games and give his team a chance to win.

Rogers (2024): 95.1 IP, 79 K, 44 BB, 11 HR, 4.72 ERA, 4.48 FIP, 114 ERA-

Every team has its junior pitcher who was supposed to be a phenom but turned out to be just mediocre, and that’s looking more and more like the way it’s going for Rogers. The left-hander, only 26, has struggled this season and walked a lot of people. The 1-9 record looks worse than it probably is — remember how I said the offense is incredibly bad? — but he’s still having a rough season where his teammates can’t often bail him out.

Sunday, July 21: Christian Scott vs Yonny Chirinos at 6:40 p.m. EDT on SNY

Scott (2024): 43.1 IP, 35 K, 10 BB, 7 HR, 4.36 ERA, 4.48 FIP, 111 ERA-

Mets fans have been spoiled by Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Matt Harvey, all of whom have basically been the pitchers they were supposed to be. Scott’s development is more like that of most call-ups: less Paul Skenes, more cromulant performance with good signs and challenges to overcome. Scott needs to be more efficient with his pitches, but that’s normal; when you dominate the minors, you need fewer pitches to throw batters out. The Marlins should be a good match for Scott.

Chirinos (2024): 25.0 IP, 21 K, 9 BB, 5 HR, 5.76 ERA, 5.40 FIP, 140 ERA-

Chirinos has only made five appearances for the Fish this season and was a model of consistency before his last start against the Reds. However, three home runs and four walks have increased his ERA by two runs. Don’t get me wrong, he wasn’t Greg Maddux before, but he’s probably better than his 140 ERA suggests.