How a Trump-Vance administration could change Ukraine’s war with Russia

Additional funding and future aid to Ukraine will be a key topic of discussion Wednesday night in Milwaukee as the Republican National Convention focuses on national security and foreign policy.

The theme of Wednesday night’s RNC is “Make America Strong Again,” and Republican vice presidential candidate JD Vance will speak publicly for the first time since being chosen as former President Donald Trump’s vice presidential running mate for 2024.

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Given Vance’s opposition to further aid and military support for Ukraine, this speech is sure to cause people like Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to wonder what U.S. support for his country’s war against Russia might look like in the future if a Trump-Vance administration takes over the White House.

In his speech Wednesday night, Vance may make the argument that U.S. involvement in the war in Ukraine is weakening the country because it diverts the U.S. focus on national security from the threat posed by other foreign adversaries such as China.

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The Ukrainians, on the other hand, are trying to show that the new weapons they are receiving from the US and NATO allies are making a difference on the battlefield, trying to counter the prevailing view that the war is at a stalemate.

While a Ukrainian counteroffensive seems unlikely in the coming weeks and months, Scripps News foreign correspondent Jason Bellini points out that Ukraine is very creative in finding countermeasures. The possibility of a Trump presidency could only increase Ukraine’s push to do something big.

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Without explaining exactly how, Trump has previously said that if he is re-elected, he will end the conflict in Ukraine. By all indications – including Trump’s own words – that could mean pushing Ukraine to negotiate a deal with Russia, which could result in the surrender of large swathes of Ukrainian territory. If Putin refuses to come to the negotiating table, however, that could put the US in a position to double down on arms sales to Ukraine.