CIA director reports that Hamas military commanders are putting pressure on Yahya Sinwar to end the war

Latest developments

Hamas military chief Yahya Sinwar is reportedly under growing pressure from his commanders to agree to a ceasefire deal with Israel, according to testimony by CIA Director Bill Burns at a closed-door meeting on July 13. A CNN report on July 16 quoted an unnamed source describing Burns’ assessment at the meeting that senior Hamas commanders were tired of more than nine months of fighting and were pressuring Sinwar to agree to a ceasefire deal. Burns, who has represented the United States at several ceasefire talks in Egypt and Qatar, said the chance of Israel and Hamas agreeing to a ceasefire is greater now than in the recent past because of pressure from commanders, but added that the final stages of negotiations are always difficult.

Expert analysis

“Hamas is under pressure. Egypt seems to have quietly but finally begun securing the Philadelphia Corridor, through which Hamas has re-armed its weapons and increased its resources. Meanwhile, the Israelis appear to have increasingly accurate intelligence on Hamas’ key assets. The war may not end tomorrow. But there is a sense that Hamas is finally reaching its breaking point.” — Jonathan SchanzerFDD Senior Vice President for Research

“Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas in Gaza, has brought disaster to Gaza in nine months of war following Hamas’ October 7 massacre. Hamas leaders may now be trying to salvage what they can from the defeat they are suffering in Gaza as a result of Sinwar’s cruel and failed war. If so, that is good news for the region, because it means Hamas knows it is losing. Hamas must be dealt a decisive defeat to prevent it and others from ever committing a massacre like October 7 again.” — Seth J. Frantzmanextraordinary fellow of the FDD

The war is directed against Hamas

The revelations mark a change in tone from reports in early June that Sinwar – who has the final say in approving a ceasefire – believes Hamas has “the Israelis exactly where we want them” despite heavy losses in Gaza, referring to the International Criminal Court prosecutor seeking arrest warrants for Israeli leaders and several European states that unilaterally recognize a Palestinian state. In recent months, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have blocked Hamas supply lines across the Rafah border with Egypt, raided Hamas weapons depots and command centers, and killed the commander of Hamas’ Khan Younis Brigade, Rafa’a Salameh. The United States and other countries have also increased pressure on Hamas to sign a new U.S.-proposed ceasefire proposal.

IDF believes Hamas morale is in decline

On July 10, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told the Knesset that 60 percent of Hamas fighters had been killed or wounded as a result of Israeli forces’ operations and that the majority of Hamas’ 24 battalions had been destroyed. According to Israeli forces estimates, which were The Times of Israel on July 16: “Hamas is suffering severe morale problems amid ongoing fighting, and thousands are fleeing army operations and choosing not to fight.” Documents seized by the Israeli army also indicate that the Iran-backed terrorist organization is running out of anti-tank grenades, assault rifles and explosives.

“Killing of Hamas Khan Younis Brigade Chief Confirmed,” FDD Flash Brief

“Netanyahu rejects claim that Israel can evacuate Philadelphia corridor,” FDD Flash Brief

“Seventeen countries call on Hamas to accept ceasefire proposal,” FDD Flash Brief