This is the most competitive race of the year – GoldDerby

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This year’s Best Pop Vocal Album nomination at the Grammys may be, if I do say so myself, harder to predict than ever before. What might have been a neck-and-neck race a few months ago has turned into a solid split between at least five artists with a shot at winning, not to mention a few others still hoping to land a nomination spot.

So let’s recap the last few months. Taylor SwiftThe Tortured Poets Department remains a major success, making it a contender to win. However, this album seems much more vulnerable than her previous two winners, perhaps due to the relative weakness of its first single, “Fortnight,” and the lack of other singles. Swift’s biggest hurdle remains that she only won last year, and with this new album being her least popular with critics since Reputation, it’s not hard to imagine voters limiting Swift to nominations rather than wins. Still, the album spent 11 weeks at the top of the Billboard 200; an album this big always has the potential to win.

But then there is ArianaGrandewhich I had previously assumed was the favorite but is now in murky waters. Grande’s main appeal is that her album will most likely be the one with the most pop radio hits, with two top 10s already and a third likely on the way with her single “The Boy Is Mine.” Her album is also the second most acclaimed in the category so far, and there might be a stronger narrative around a second Grande win here than another Swift (who has already won twice) or Billie Eilish (which is newer; more about it below) Victory.

However, “Vergiss mein nicht!” will not be the most commercially successful album in this category and, if we are honest, it could even be the least commercially successful album in terms of units sold at the time of voting. This is not always a problem, because Dua Lipa“Future Nostalgia” won despite only being in the top 10 for a few weeks, as did Grande’s own “Sweetener,” but that’s something that keeps her from being the clear winner here.

Eilish is obviously a big contender thanks to the success of her third album, Hit Me Hard and Soft. The record received critical acclaim, more than any other here, and has done great commercial numbers since its release, despite Swift knocking her off the top spot on the charts. Much like Grande, the first single from her album, “Lunch,” was good but not spectacular, and was overshadowed by the second official single, “Birds of a Feather.”

Eilish’s biggest shortcoming is that she’s not typically as present on pop radio, and this era may be no exception. Also, she typically does better in the general space than in pop, so Eilish may not be pop voters’ first choice. Still, “Hit Me” is the second biggest hit here, so a win is certainly possible; it’s not that pop voters don’t like Eilish, otherwise she wouldn’t be nominated so often.

There are two outsiders here, both of whom are rising stars. The first is Sabrina Carpenter with their upcoming album “Short n’ Sweet”. It has already scored two major hits: the top 3 single “Espresso” and the chart-topper “Please Please Please”. This kind of success is reminiscent of previous breakthrough smash albums like Olivia Rodrigo“Sour” by and “When We All Fall Asleep, Where Do We Go?” by Eilish, both of which won this category.

However, Rodrigo and Eilish are seen more as serious singer-songwriters. Carpenter’s music is lighter and more playful, and while that kind of music can win here, it usually has to come with critical acclaim, as with the aforementioned wins by Grande and Lipa. There’s no guarantee that “Short n’ Sweet” will be praised. However, the album’s success despite not even being out yet and the fact that it could top the ballot since it’s coming out on August 23, just before the August 30 deadline, make Carpenter a strong contender to win. And voters don’t usually choose repeat winners here, so that’s one advantage she has over Swift, Grande and Eilish.

Last but not least, in terms of the odds of winning Chappell Roan. She has taken the world by storm and is enjoying a meteoric rise with her album The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess, released on September 22nd in the first week of nominations. It became a surprise hit, reaching the top five on the Billboard 200 with no signs of slowing down. By year’s end, the album could be among the top five or six best-selling pop albums of the year, tied with the previous four artists, so Roan is very likely to be in line for a nomination.

Her chances of winning depend on several factors. First, they might be happy to reward a debut album that has had such an organic rise. Roan’s rise to fame might be more inspiring than the other nominees, considering she was dropped by her old label and that she’s a young queer talent from a small town. Commercially, she also has plenty of room to grow: Her standalone hit “Good Luck, Babe!” became a hit in late summer, and songs from “Midwest Princess” made the Hot 100 despite being a few years old. Additionally, “Midwest Princess” could be considered a more serious album than potentially “Short n’ Sweet,” as it tackles themes like queerness and self-acceptance.

Even with such a strong five at the top, there is potential for a breakout Benson Boonewho found success with his debut album, Fireworks and Rollerblades. The record spent several weeks in the top 10 of the Billboard 200 and has two top 40 hits with “Beautiful Things” and “Slow It Down.” What’s holding him back is that he doesn’t have as big a personality as the above five, which is usually a big factor in getting into this category. Still, Boone could be sixth in the running and come in on a tie; as recently as 2019, there were six nominees in this category. While the record is unlikely to win, a nomination is very possible.

Who completes the list of contenders? Dua Lipa is a previous winner, so Radical Optimism should not be overlooked, even though the album admittedly underperformed commercially and critically. Another previous winner is Ed Sheeran with his album “Autumn Variations,” which is not a hit-heavy record, but could be sentimental enough to embrace voters, similar to his previously nominated album “Subtract.” If the Grammys are all about breakthroughs, then Tate McRae‘s “Think Later” could make it, as the album produced two hits with “Exes” and “Greedy”. And Justin Timberlake has usually been nominated for his albums. This year, his “Everything I Thought It Was” wasn’t necessarily a big hit, but it did spawn the radio hit “Selfish.” However, voters may pass him over this year due to the recent controversy surrounding Timberlake’s drunk driving.

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