Israel’s northern front is ready, but will there be a war with Hezbollah?
Hezbollah continues to launch daily attacks on northern Israel, and continues to suffer losses. On July 16, the Iranian news agency IRNA reported that Hezbollah had suffered another casualty. This time, it was a 60-year-old Hezbollah member from Bint Jbeil.
He is one of nearly 300 members killed in nine months. The Lebanon-based terror group has suffered heavier losses than Israel but believes it is winning this round of conflict as Israelis continue to be evacuated from their homes in the north.
Hezbollah boasts about its successes in attacks on the north every two or three days. It said it attacked more Israeli sites this week. Overall, however, it seems that Hezbollah is just going through the motions, maintaining pressure on Israel with its daily attacks while the Gaza war continues.
Israel has said it will stop the attacks when the Gaza war ends. Israel is more cautious. Israeli officials have said Israel can continue its operations against Hezbollah.
On July 16, the Israeli army announced: “Today (Tuesday), two Hezbollah terrorists were identified who fled from the area from which missiles were fired yesterday (Monday) toward Kiryat Shmona in northern Israel. After the identification, the Israeli army attacked the terrorists in the Mansouri area in southern Lebanon.”
In northern Israel, the Israeli army is prepared for all eventualities. They have been ready for many months and are conducting unit training. This means that both reservists and regular troops are trained. The training includes numerous scenarios, usually battalions or brigades are trained. They also train to work together with other parts of their division or with the air force, local police and security teams, emergency services and the navy.
The whole thing is designed to prepare for a major war in the north. Israel has always been prepared for a major war in the north against Hezbollah. Now it could also be against Iranian-backed militias in Syria and even against Iraqi militias that want to travel to Syria or Lebanon to support Iranian-backed groups.
Waiting for Godot
ajour front that was expected. In this sense, Gaza’s “tail” is now wagging the dog. This is not what the IDF originally had in mind nine months ago. But any plan is only good until it meets the enemy. Now we have seen the enemy in Gaza and are waiting in the north – that is the point.
Israel is on the defensive in the north. This means that Hezbollah and Iran have the initiative: they decide when and where to attack. Israel responds with precise, measured strikes, usually on terrorist infrastructure. But the chances of success here may be diminishing. In recent months, I have felt that the Israeli forces are ready and like a horse impatiently biting the reins; they are waiting to see what happens next, but they have also been trained over and over again. They are like a boxer who is ready for the arena but never gets into the ring.
It all depends on the political level and the decisions that need to be made. Israel has learned a lot in the nine months of fighting with Hezbollah. Hezbollah has also learned a lot. It is suffering losses, but it seems that it is continuing to suffer more and more losses. Israel can also learn from other modern conflicts, such as the war in Ukraine. Hezbollah is supported by Iran, which, like Russia, supplies it with drones and drone technology.
That means you can look at the conflicts and see how Iran-backed groups or partners are using a mix of drones and missiles to terrorize civilians. That’s what Russia and Hezbollah are doing. That’s what Iran did on April 13, when it fired around 350 missiles at Israel, and Iran’s proxies fired another 150 missiles, including missiles and drones, at the Jewish state.
Cheap weapons are changing the battlefield. Most of these are cheap drones. But Hezbollah also uses precision weapons, anti-tank missiles and rockets to attack Israel. It is not clear whether Hezbollah is rebuilding its infrastructure, which was damaged in a dozen villages near the border. Most civilians have fled the villages in southern Lebanon. The damage Hezbollah has suffered is adding up. But there is always more that can be hit.
The Israeli military is trying to help Israeli civilians return to the north. 50,000 people are still being evacuated from northern Israel. Four soldiers were recently injured by shrapnel from an interceptor that hit Kiryat Shmona. Two Israeli civilians were killed by rocket fire in the Golan Heights. One soldier was killed in a Hezbollah drone attack on Kibbutz Kabri. All of this shows the danger that this terrorist group poses to the north.
Both Hezbollah and the Israeli Defense Forces are bringing new capabilities to the front. Pro-Iranian media recently reported that Hezbollah is using the Shahed 101 drone, which Al-Mayadeen said is better than the drone Hezbollah has used so far. The threat of anti-tank missiles is also a major problem in the north.
Israel and Hezbollah are learning – the big question will be whose learning curve is better.
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