Betting on the NL Rookie of the Year: Is there more value than Skenes?

MLB royalty descended on Arlington tonight for the All-Star Game. Yes, rookie phenom Paul Skenes’ star arguably shines brighter than the others. OK, maybe Judge and Ohtani are still bigger stars.

At least the mustache caught America’s attention. Skenes is still dating Livvy Dunne, but that’s no longer his connection to fame. His star shines brightly on its own after being historically dominant in his first two months in Major League Baseball. In 11 starts, Skenes has allowed 14 earned runs in 66 innings while striking out an incredible 89 opposing hitters.

It’s no surprise that the Bucs right-hander is one of the favorites (+500) for the National League Cy Young Award, but Skenes was even 100-1 odds before the season to win NL Rookie of the Year. Today, he’s at -1200 odds at some bookies to take home the award.

Read more: Dalzell talks about betting on the NL Cy Young market

At the latest edition of Bet the EDGEThe guys talked about the newcomer’s meteoric rise and the futures market, which he now has firmly under control.

Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper) laughed at the thought that anyone could even challenge the flamethrower, who was only called up from the minors on May 11.^th.

“(Skenes) should probably be at -12,000… If you want to bet against him, I would just look at the outfielders. I don’t think any of the other pitchers can realistically do enough right now to change the narrative in his favor. I think Skenes will just get away with it in general, in part because it’s the only entertaining story you can tell in baseball. It doesn’t really feel like there’s a lot of excitement outside of Skenes, you know, arriving this year. And I think just in general that should help him pull away from the outfield pretty much in this market.”

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Jay Croucher (@croucherJD) isn’t running to the counter to bet on Skenes. Not only has the value of the Mustache long since gone, but as Jay explained, it’s now actually with others in the race.

“In general, I would be against any pitcher who is -1200 at the All-Star break for any award, just because of the volatility, position and injury risk. But with Rookie of the Year, you don’t need that much volume, and I think with Skenes, it’s not even about him staying healthy or avoiding an innings limit that supposedly doesn’t exist for the rest of the season. If he can hold out just one more month, I think if he can hold out four more weeks, it could just be over. If he can get 100 innings, maybe around 90, if he wants to maintain that level of dominance…”

Join the conversation: NBC Sports and Rotoworld will cover the All-Star Game live.

So if not on Skenes, who would Croucher place his bet on?

“If I were to throw some darts in this market, I’d say Michael Bush is 40-1. Joey Ortiz, who leads all rookies in WAR, is 50-1. Those would be the two darts I’d throw. I think in this market, the bookies have just gotten a little bit lax in terms of pricing the rest of the market. Jackson Merrill is barely better odds than Bush or Ortiz and is 5-1… So I think they’re a little bit obsessed with pricing the Skenes and honestly not re-allocating the rest of the bookie as likely as possible. So I would look at Bush and Ortiz, but I wouldn’t feel good about it because I think Skenes is ultimately going to go in here with a little more health.”

Paul Skenes is indisputably the top story in baseball this season. Enjoy the All-Star Game, and if you already own a Skenes ticket for NL Rookie of the Year or even the NL Cy Young (NBC Sports’ betting analyst Vaughn Dalzell — @VmoneySports — owns multiple tickets in each market), try not to laugh so hard at the rest of the market who missed their chance to ride with the phenomenal flamethrower.

Fun fact: Paul Skenes began his college career at the Air Force Academy… as a catcher with some stints as a closer. He batted over .400 as a freshman, but it wasn’t until he began starting games as a sophomore that the rest of the college world took notice. He transferred to LSU and developed into the most dominant starting pitcher in the college game.