Russia’s anger grows as Greece prepares military deal with Ukraine | News on Russia-Ukraine war

Athens, Greece – On March 6, Russia fired a missile at the Ukrainian port city of Odessa, exploding about 400 meters from where Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was preparing for a city tour with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis.

“When we got into our cars, we heard a big explosion,” Mitsotakis later told reporters. “We were all worried, especially considering we were in an open square with no cover. It was pretty brutal.”

Many Western leaders have visited Zelensky, but this was the only time there was a credible threat to their lives and safety. Analysts in Athens do not believe this was an accident.

“It was a message to Greece, a message to the Russophile part of Greek society,” said Konstantinos Filis, professor of international relations and director of the Institute of Global Affairs at the American College of Greece.

This Russophile population is decreasing dramatically.

According to Dianeosis, an Athens-based think tank, about 70 percent of Greeks had a positive opinion of Russia before the all-out war in Ukraine. After the invasion in 2022, that share fell to 50 percent and last year to 30 percent.

“The Russians are very angry with the Greeks,” Filis told Al Jazeera. “Greece has clearly supported Ukraine from the beginning.”

Just three days after the war began, Greece announced it would send Ukraine two C-130 planes full of rifles, ammunition and grenades. The German newspaper Bild revealed that these included 20,000 Kalashnikov rifles that Greece confiscated in 2013 en route to Libya, which is under a United Nations arms embargo.

Greece’s early support for Ukraine prompted the Russian embassy in Athens to call on “senior politicians” to “come to their senses” and “stop anti-Russian propaganda.”

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zacharova called Greece’s decision to send weapons to Ukraine “deeply wrong” and “criminal.” She warned that “the weapons will ultimately be directed against civilians, including Greeks,” referring to the 150,000 ethnic Ukrainians of Greek descent who at the time were living mainly in the besieged cities of Mariupol and Odessa.

Officially, Greece has supplied Ukraine with another 20,000 155mm artillery shells, Stinger missiles and 40 Soviet BMP-1 infantry fighting vehicles. It is currently preparing to deliver four huge transformers that will convert the high-voltage direct current generated by power plants into the lower alternating current used in local distribution networks to supply electricity to households.

Odessa in particular is dependent on these, as seven of the nine transformers around the city have been put out of action by Russian attacks – part of the Kremlin’s aggressive strategy to paralyze the Ukrainian arms industry and economy.

Ukraine is also reportedly interested in the unused power generators from the coal-fired power plants shut down by Greece.

Greece is also a channel for military equipment from third countries.

The northern port of Alexandroupolis has a direct rail connection with Odessa via Romania or via Lviv in Poland, and the United States has established its own military logistics pier in the Greek port since signing a defense cooperation agreement with Greece in 2019.

Military equipment can reach Ukraine within 24 hours after unloading in Alexandroupolis. Since the Turkish Bosporus Strait, the access to the Black Sea, is closed to all military traffic, Alexandroupolis is one of the fastest routes to Ukraine.

“We could offer anti-aircraft guns and S-300 air defense systems”

Russia cites its shared Orthodox Church with Greece and its support for the country in the Greek War of Independence against the Ottoman Empire in 1821. But these cultural and historical similarities are trumped by Russia’s behavior toward Ukraine, which compares Greece to that of its neighbor Turkey.

With these words, Mitsotakis expressed his government’s support for Ukraine in Odessa.

“Greece … has been confronted with armed conflicts in the past,” he said. “Greece’s participation in European support for Ukraine needs no further explanation.”

Greece is trying to persuade Turkey to agree to maritime boundaries in the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, which Turkey is not a signatory to. Turkey denies that the Greek islands have a continental shelf and also disputes Greek sovereignty over its Eastern Aegean islands.

Avoiding war with neighbours is enshrined in the UN Charter and Athens wants to see this obligation implemented in Ukraine as well, analysts say.

Unofficially, Greece has provided even more direct military aid to Ukraine, including self-propelled guns. Some government officials estimate the total value of the aid at around $300 million over two years, and that figure could rise significantly.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken pushed for further military transfers and offered Greece $200 million in foreign military financing in a letter to Mitsotakis in January.

“The government is trying to offer things that can be replaced,” a diplomatic source told Al Jazeera. “In theory, we could offer anti-aircraft guns and S-300 air defense systems.”

Greece has a Russian-made S-300 long-range air defense battery based in Crete and, according to government sources, has offered to supply the battery to Ukraine if the United States would replace it with a battery of Patriot missiles.

Greece and Ukraine are currently negotiating a ten-year aid agreement similar to those of many other NATO members.

“Greece wants an agreement … based on surpluses in the military budget – materials that must be sold or destroyed before their expiration date,” the diplomatic source said. “We do not want a separate budget item for Ukraine.”

Public opinion is divided

A recent poll conducted by the European Council on Foreign Relations in 15 European countries found that 55 percent of Greeks oppose increased defense spending on Ukraine – a consensus with the majority of Europeans.

However, unlike most Europeans, a similar number of Greeks are against the delivery of further weapons to Ukraine.

Although Greece spends more on defense than most NATO countries – last year it spent 3.7 percent of its gross domestic product on the military – concerns about its own security prevent the country from being more generous.

But Ukraine demands more.

Greece is about to retire 32 older F-16 Block 30 fighter jets while upgrading 82 F-16s to Block 70s and acquiring 24 fourth-generation Rafale fighter jets from France.

A committee of the US Congress has also given Greece permission to buy up to 40 fifth-generation F-35 multi-purpose jets. Ukraine has made no secret of its interest in this.

According to one report, Ukraine could expect 60 decommissioned F-16 fighter jets from Denmark, Norway and the Netherlands. Ukraine itself has said it needs about 150. The 32 Greek fighter jets would go some way to filling the gap.

According to sources who spoke to Al Jazeera, Greece’s preferred solution for handing over the jets is to sell them back to the US, which would then upgrade them and pass them on to Kiev.

Some military experts are concerned about giving up dozens of combat aircraft. They believe that security concerns, which are responsible for Greece’s pro-Ukrainian policy, are also an obstacle.

“Unfortunately, our neighbors are forcing us to have very powerful armed forces,” an air force engineer told Al Jazeera on condition of anonymity.

“The sale of 32 F-16s … would tear a big hole in the Air Force. … A quorum of about 200 aircraft must be reached, which is not possible with more modern and more expensive fighter jets.”