NL Cy Young odds 2024: Could Paul Skenes challenge Chris Sale and Zack Wheeler for the award in his rookie season?

Pirates phenom Paul Skenes has already won the College World Series, been selected No. 1 in the MLB Draft, been voted an All-Star and been named the NL’s All-Star Game starting pitcher. The next honor for the 22-year-old could well be Rookie of the Year, but how about an even bigger award?

Skenes’ name is starting to appear in the NL Cy Young Award conversation, even though he didn’t come to the major leagues until May. With excellent numbers in 11 starts, two of which were hitless, Skenes’ chances of winning the Cy Young Award have risen quickly before the All-Star break.

At the same time, Skenes could be at a significant innings disadvantage having spent the first six weeks of the season in the minor leagues, which could increase the pressure on the LSU product to be as efficient as he is dominant down the stretch.

Here’s a look at the updated NL Cy Young odds and what Skenes needs to do to win the award.

MORE: Paul Skenes joins list of rookies and youngest pitchers to start in All-Star Game

NL Cy Young Odds 2024

Odds courtesy of BetMGM.

Skenes (+400) has the third-lowest NL Cy Young odds, with only Atlanta’s Chris Sale (+125) and Philadelphia’s Zack Wheeler (+155) better. No other pitcher is currently in the same range as Sale, Wheeler and Skenes.

Sale is the betting favorite after posting a 2.70 ERA and 140 strikeouts in a resurgent first half with the Braves, while Wheeler has seen a rebound after allowing two or fewer earned runs in nine of his last 10 starts before the All-Star break.

Still, no one was better than Skenes. The rookie had a sub-2.00 ERA in his first 11 MLB starts and went two starts without allowing a single hit. With a strikeout rate of over 12 batters per nine innings, it’s not a stretch to argue that Skenes was the most impressive pitcher in the National League.

Could an innings gap keep Skenes from seriously contending for the Cy Young Award? Here’s a look at the Pirates ace’s path to the award.

Will Paul Skenes win the Cy Young?

Skenes’ numbers are largely on par with those of the NL Cy Young candidates, but there’s a catch: He’s thrown just 66.1 innings. For comparison, Sale has thrown 105 innings. Wheeler, a known workhorse, has thrown 116.2 innings. A gap of 40-50 innings would still be significant if it persisted through the end of the season, although it wouldn’t be as proportionally large as it is now.

To beat pitchers who have pitched significantly more innings than him, Skenes will have to be significantly – not just marginally – better than anyone else in his time on the mound. There’s real evidence that he has at least a chance to do that.

Skenes’ ERA is the second-lowest in the NL among pitchers with at least 60 innings, while he leads in both strikeout rate and WHIP. Skenes is currently 15th in fWAR (2.1) among NL pitchers. That pace would give Skenes a 3.3 fWAR over Sales’ 105 innings; Sales’ fWAR is 3.5, and no other NL pitcher has a higher than 3.2.

With an ERA+ of 151, Sale is the best pitcher in the NL. Skenes’ ERA+ is currently 215. That’s a dramatic difference that would force voters to take another look at Skenes if he maintained that number, even with an innings gap.

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This is what the statistics look like for the four NL Cy Young favorites before the All-Star break.

While Skenes has the edge in all areas when it comes to rating statistics, his body of work still has a long way to go.

Is there any precedent for a starter winning the Cy Young Award with so few innings pitched? The record low for a Cy Young-winning starting pitcher over a full 162-game season belongs to Corbin Burnes, who threw 167 innings in 2021. A pitcher needs 162 innings to qualify for statistical leaderboards like ERA and WHIP, and it doesn’t look like Skenes will get there. If he averaged six innings per start down the stretch, he’d likely end up at around 145-150 innings for the season.

Skenes doesn’t have to qualify for the stats leaderboards to win the Cy Young, but 145 innings compared to potentially 180-190 for Sale — and even more for Wheeler — would put more pressure on the Pirates ace to be significantly better than both if he wants to win the award.

It’s worth noting that Sale hasn’t made more than 20 starts in a season since 2019 and 30 starts since 2017. Now 35 and with a lanky frame, Sale still needs to prove he can physically compete in the second half.

Wheeler, meanwhile, missed his final start before the All-Star break due to a lower back injury. While not considered serious, these are scenarios that could narrow the gap between the NL’s most impressive starters.

Could Skenes win the Cy Young Award? At this rate, it’s entirely possible, and the odds are in his favor. The 22-year-old needs virtually no improvement, and the Pirates could significantly hurt his chances by trying to limit his innings in the final stretch.

Rookies win the Cy Young Award

If Skenes completes his run to the Cy Young Award, he would be only the second pitcher in either league to win it as a rookie. The only pitcher in MLB history to win the Cy Young Award as a rookie is Fernando Valenzuela, who had a dominant season for the Dodgers in 1981.

Valenzuela went 13-7 with a 2.48 ERA in 25 starts in a strike-shortened season. He struck out an MLB-best 180 batters in 192.1 innings and posted a 1.05 WHIP.

“Fernandomania” swept the sport in 1981 when Valenzuela was just 20 years old, but he never won another Cy Young Award and struggled to return to his dominant form after a terrific six-year stretch early in his career. Valenzuela was a six-time All-Star, but none of those nominations came after age 25 and he failed to make the Hall of Fame.

It will take some time before Skenes’ legacy is assessed — He has only made 11 starts in his career and pitching injuries are a threat to all of the best pitchers in baseball — but it’s clear that the Pirates star has the talent needed to make a name for himself when he takes the mound in his first All-Star Game.