The value of Noah Dobson’s contract extension can be derived from previous Islanders deals

Extending Noah Dobson’s contract was not the Islanders’ first task in what should have been an exciting offseason, after General Manager Lou Lamoriello signaled on the day of the split seven weeks ago that he was open to change.

Kyle MacLean, Maxim Tsyplakov and Marcus Hogberg have already preceded the rising defenseman star by signing their contracts. More could follow at next week’s draft, as Dobson is not allowed to sign until July 1.

Dobson’s contract extension has no bearing on whether the Islanders will change course or, if so, to what extent.

Still, it’s arguably the most important item on Lamoriello’s to-do list for this summer, just like Ilya Sorokin’s contract extension a year ago and Mathew Barzal’s contract extension two years ago.

This is the class Dobson is now playing in as he enters his 25th year season.

All the questions about his value were asked and answered during a season in which Dobson saw a dramatic increase in his ice time and played against the toughest opponents after injuries decimated the Islanders’ defense. He proved more than equal to the task, scoring 70 points and establishing himself as one of the league’s best young defensemen.

He is the franchise, just like Barzal and Sorokin are the franchise. He gets paid accordingly.

“He’s growing every year,” Lamoriello said on the day of the split. “And I believe his potential is unlimited.”

“But he’s growing, like any other young player. Every year you have success, you obviously get a little more recognition and a little more attention. But there’s no doubt that the sky’s the limit.”

Information about possible contract negotiations with Lamoriello is scarce.

But recent history teaches us that the Islanders don’t like to drag things out beyond the season.

On July 1 last year, Sorokin signed an eight-year contract.

Barzal was signed for eight seasons just days after the start of 2022 training camp.

Bo Horvat, signed on January 30, 2023, signed for eight years on February 5, one day before his debut with the Islanders.

Eight years – the maximum period for a player extending his contract with the same team – was the norm here.

This season, Dobson would turn 32 and reach his projected peak with the Islanders.

Salary is harder to predict, especially because the salary cap rises to $88 million next season and is expected to rise to $92 million in the 2025-26 season, when Dobson’s next contract takes effect – or roughly 110 percent of current salary.

After that, the price is likely to continue to rise. A constant topic this summer will be how this will affect all contracts.

This dynamic was already felt earlier this week in Vancouver, where Filip Hronek signed an eight-year contract with an average annual value of $7.25 million.

Hronek is two years older than Dobson and played a similar number of minutes last season, but is not part of the top power play unit and is nowhere near as capable on offense.

A long-term contract extension for a player of Dobson’s caliber would likely have carried a flat cap hit of just over $8 million per year.

Jake Sanderson signed with Ottawa for eight years and $64.4 million last October; Owen Power signed a seven-year contract extension with Buffalo for a total of $58.45 million around the same time.

When Tampa wanted to sign Mikhail Sergachev long-term in the summer of 2022, it cost the Lightning $68 million over eight seasons.

Now what? With a cap hit of $92 million, Evolving Hockey projects Dobson to sign an eight-year contract extension averaging $10.52 million per year.

That would make him the Islanders’ highest-paid player and by far the highest-paid defenseman (the latter will undoubtedly be the case either way).

This will not be the NBA summer of 2016, when a dramatic salary cap move allowed Kevin Durant to join the Warriors and immediately led to ridiculous deals, like Timofey Mozgov’s deal to the Lakers for four years and $64 million just minutes after free agency began, with teams overreacting to the new reality.

But it will be something.

This is a good time to sign a contract.

This is a good time to be Noah Dobson.