Severe tornado warning issued for southwest Michigan, gusts up to 90 mph possible

A tornado warning has been issued for all of northern Illinois, southwestern Lower Michigan, and northwestern Indiana. Iowa and Illinois are currently experiencing severe weather moving eastward as of 8 p.m.

The counties in Michigan that have a tornado warning in effect are Allegan, Barry, Berrien, Cass, Kalamazoo and Van Buren. The tornado warning lasts until 2 a.m. here in Michigan.

There are currently several tornado warnings in place for severe thunderstorms west of Michigan into northern Illinois. Our best model, which has predicted tornado-like supercell storms a few times this summer, is now predicting a supercell storm will move into southwestern Lower Michigan around midnight.

Here is the severe weather forecast model and the corresponding radar forecast for the late evening and night.

The severe situation is leaning more towards a straight line wind event, but a few tornadoes are possible. Ultimately, the greater danger is strong straight line wind gusts.

The National Weather Service has clarified its gust strength estimates, saying that numerous gusts with speeds between 70 and 90 miles per hour are possible in the tornado warning zone.

One good thing for Southwest Michigan is that we are at the tail end of the severe weather period. The storms will likely enter the southwest corner of Lake Michigan around 11 p.m., about an hour from now. There is expected to be enough instability left then to support significant, severe thunderstorms. Over the course of the few hours until 2 a.m. Tuesday, the energy for destructive, severe storms should diminish and the storms should weaken.

The National Weather Service wrote in its tornado warning: “Thunderstorms are expected to develop into one or more bow echoes from Iowa into northern Illinois this evening, with the possibility of severe gusts up to 75-90 mph and multiple tornadoes with embedded circulations. Storms will spread into northwest Indiana and southwest lower Michigan later this evening.”

Look for the severe thunderstorms to enter Michigan’s portion of the tornado warning sometime between 10 p.m. and midnight. This would include Benton Harbor, Niles, Three Rivers, Kalamazoo, and the rest of the southwest corner of Michigan. Between midnight and 2 a.m., the storms should move along the I-94 corridor through Jackson, Ann Arbor, and the Detroit area. During this time, the storms should weaken, but could still be on the verge of severe storms.

If the storms are very severe when they hit your area, retreat to the basement or the innermost part of your home during the storms. Campers should not stay in their RV during these storms.

Stay up to date with MLive here throughout the storm wave.