Players who will move into the top 50 at ADP – Finding value at the start of the 2024 draft

After last week’s hit list of guys I’m avoiding at the usual price, I thought I’d share with you a few dream guys I’m keen on for this fall (alliteration!).

It’s hard to “skip” ADP (i.e., take a player a few picks further than he currently typically lands in drafts) in the first few rounds of the draft. Even if you don’t love AJ Brown at the current price because you read some internet moron throwing around percentages, would you really take Garrett Wilson or Jonathan Taylor instead? That’s a pretty sharp proposition.

But there’s a bit of a difference between what guys are accomplishing now and what I think they’ll accomplish pretty early on. Here are some guys I’ll be lining up for right at the start of 2024.

Davante Adams
Current ADP: 18.0, WR11

Adams is the poster child of a rock-solid second-round safety and a must-have in pure PPR leagues at this price. Adams remains the undisputed target share king in fantasy football, having had either the largest or second-largest share of his team’s pass attempts in the league in three of the last four years (only Cooper Kupp’s legendary 2021 interrupted his winning streak). Adams’ target chokehold reached new heights with the arrival of Antonio Pierce, increasing from an already elite 30.4% of the Raiders’ pass attempts last year before McDaniels’ firing to an unheard of 35.4% under Pierce. Adams did average an uncharacteristically low 10.8 yards per catch during that time, but that’s the price of being force-fed these days and can be attributed in part to some particularly poor plays by the quarterback on long throws.

Adams was a top-three wide receiver in four of the last five seasons before slipping last year. At this price, bet on the future Hall of Famer to surpass his 2023 numbers right off the bat.

Derrick Henry
Current ADP: 25.9, RB10

Gus Edwards is a 6’1″, 230-pound battering ram with no passing ability or speed. Baltimore’s offense took the useful but one-dimensional Edwards anyway and made him the fantasy series’ RB8 in a 7-17 week in which he scored 12 rushing TDs in those nine games. When Derrick Henry comes in, still an elite force near the line, it’s easy to get very excited – especially when he’s somehow just picked later than Travis Etienne and De’Von Achane in some mock drafts.

While the Ravens are expected to have one of the league’s better offenses again in 2024, Lamar Jackson isn’t scoring many touchdowns right now, and he’s not throwing many either – Derrick Henry in Baltimore is a match made in heaven. The only real concern is the Ravens’ free agent losses on the offensive line, but Henry has overcome his offensive line woes many times before. King Henry can still get us another top-five finish.

Josh Jacobs
Current ADP: 26.5, RB11

Jacobs is currently well behind Jonathan Taylor and Saquon Barkley, and I’m not sure why that is. Taylor has total control of a backfield for an offense that could be very productive, and Barkley is being used as the centerpiece of an offense that we know is somewhere between very good and elite. But Jacobs has dominated the backfield for some time, accounting for over 30% of the Raiders’ total offense in his games the past two seasons. And unlike Taylor and Barkley, he doesn’t have to worry about his quarterback picking up his redzone touchdowns.

The Packers’ offense became dominant after Week 9 last year, averaging 386.4 total yards of offense per game from that point onward; thirty percent of those would be over 115 yards per game. Rookie MarShawn Lloyd isn’t a big concern in 2024, but Jacobs should retain nearly complete control here.

Michael Pittman
Current ADP: 39.5, WR21

I just feel like Pittman is getting pretty close to his ceiling here. Pittman is the undisputed top pick in this passing game after receiving a (oddly tame) 3-year/$70 million contract extension in March, and finally has a QB in Anthony Richardson with the kind of fastball that could easily help Pittman surpass his career-high of 6 TDs. Pittman was 8th in the NFL in target share last year, and yet of the top 10 receivers in target share in 2023, Pittman will come at least 5-6 picks later than any of them on average – with a QB upgrade.

DK Metcalf
Current ADP: 41.6, WR23

With the Seahawks expected to have a little more passing chops in 2024 and the new coaching staff raving about Metcalf, his ADP was never going to stay outside the top 50 for long, and predictably his price has been revised upward in the last week or so. I don’t think he’ll go much higher, though, and at that price I still love Metcalf: He’s one of the game’s best touchdown converters, and the Seahawks are clearly committed to getting him the football more often than ever. New HC Mike Macdonald promises the Seahawks will still run the ball a lot, but new OC Ryan Grubb’s offense at neighboring University of Washington threw the ball in the air more often last year than anyone else NFL Team; I don’t think the tiger changes its stripes overnight.

I think we’re looking at a breakout season for Metcalf in the style of “AJ Brown 2022,” who has only finished in the top 10 once before, in 2020. The main question for me here is whether the offensive line can maintain the passing rate that this newly formed Seahawks team is aiming for.

15.07.-Update: Metcalf’s ADP continued to rise over the weekend, from 44.9 a few days ago to 41.6 today. It’s unfortunate, but the WRs he’s targeting (Devonta Smith, Malik Nabers) I consider to be significantly less attractive options at this price.

George Pickens
Current ADP: 56.6, WR28

If Metcalf is my favorite WR in this part of the bracket right now, then George Pickens is a close second. It was brief, but Pickens’ two-week explosion to close out 2023 finally showed the Steelers, in my opinion, that they need to stop bullshitting and give this guy the football, and perhaps that was the driving force behind GM Omar Khan’s decision to ship away the very capable Diontae Johnson just before free agency began.

Pickens is already one of the best man coverage throttlers in the league and one that cornerbacks fear getting bullied by. The targets the Steelers free up with Johnson’s departure to Carolina shouldn’t be underestimated, even if promising rookie replacement Roman Wilson is selected. Given the personnel changes and offensive philosophy surrounding him through 2024, my official position is “Pickens’ Year 3 will be a smash hit” — as long as the Russell Wilson experiment doesn’t backfire.

Rashee Rice
Current ADP: 81.7, WR39

I understand why Rice’s ADP is currently suppressed, as the Chiefs may well have decided to use their April first-round pick on a wide receiver in direct response to Rice’s recent off-field issues. As a result, newcomer Marquise “Hollywood” Brown is currently ahead of Rice on draft boards; about four spots ahead of him on Sleeper (the ADP source referenced here), but further ahead on others. I understand concern about a potential suspension for Rice, but I think it’s important to remember that the Chiefs signed Hollywood Brown two weeks before Rice’s legal issues began on March 30 — this move was not made in response to Rice’s availability question marks, as they didn’t yet exist. Signing the super-speedy Worthy is not great news for Rice, but I would argue that his skill set and potential use overlap more with Brown than with Rice’s — possibly much more.

Add to that the fact that the chances of Rice’s lawyers pushing back his trial date until 2025 (or later; remember, Alvin Kamara’s recent legal troubles didn’t result in a suspension until 18 months after the incident, and NFL policy is to go through the legal process before taking disciplinary action), and Rice is shaping up to be a potentially very valuable player in this year’s draft.