The value of energy trade between Mexico and the United States fell in 2023 due to lower fuel prices

Brief analysis

July 15, 2024

The value of total energy trade between the United States and Mexico fell nearly 15%, adjusted for inflation, from $77.8 billion in 2022 to $66.5 billion in 2023. Lower fuel prices more than offset the increase in energy trade volume between the two countries. Energy trade value represents the total value of energy imports and exports between the two countries. It is influenced by both commodity prices and the volume of commodities imported and exported.

The value of inflation-adjusted U.S. energy exports to Mexico fell 19% in 2023. The value of inflation-adjusted energy imports from Mexico fell 6% in 2023, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau, which has been collecting this type of data since 1996.

Crude oil. In 2023, the United States imported more crude oil from Mexico and paid less per barrel than in 2022. U.S. crude oil imports from Mexico averaged 733,000 barrels per day (b/d), up 15% from 2022. Global crude oil prices declined in 2023, with the spot price for Brent crude oil averaging $82.41 per barrel (b), compared to $100.94/b in 2022. Despite increased import volumes, lower crude oil prices reduced the value of U.S. crude oil imports from Mexico by 4% in 2023 compared to 2022. U.S. crude oil imports accounted for 81% of all energy imports from Mexico in 2023. The United States did not export any crude oil to Mexico in 2023.

petroleum products. In 2023, Mexico was the largest export market for U.S. petroleum products. Mexico has an aging refining system and struggles to maintain the production needed to meet domestic petroleum product demand. As a result, Mexico imports U.S. petroleum products such as gasoline, diesel fuel, and propane. Petroleum products accounted for 87% of the United States’ total energy exports to Mexico in 2023. U.S. petroleum product exports to Mexico averaged 1.2 million barrels per day in 2023, up 1% from 2022. Although export volume increased, the value of U.S. petroleum product exports declined 9% after adjusting for inflation, falling from $40 billion in 2022 to $36 billion in 2023.

Natural gas. Natural gas trade consists primarily of pipeline deliveries from the United States to Mexico. The United States exported a record amount of natural gas in 2023: 6.2 billion cubic feet per day, or 8% more than in 2022. U.S. natural gas exports to Mexico accounted for 13% of all U.S. energy exports to Mexico for the year. Due to lower prices, the trade value of natural gas fell 52% in 2023 compared to 2022.

Electricity. The United States and Mexico exchange a small amount of electricity, mostly to California, New Mexico, and Texas, where power lines cross the U.S.-Mexico border. In 2023, only 0.14% of U.S. electricity consumption came from Mexico. That year, U.S. electricity imports from Mexico increased 20% compared to 2022, to 5.7 terawatt hours (TWh), while U.S. electricity exports to Mexico fell 65% to 1.8 TWh, resulting in a net trade deficit of 3.9 TWh.

Main responsible persons: Matias Arnal, Sean Hill