Orban’s “peace mission”: Has Hungary’s head of government achieved anything? | News about the Russia-Ukraine war

When Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban broke ranks with the EU states and visited Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on July 5, he presented himself as a peacemaker.

“The number of countries that can talk to both warring parties is decreasing,” Orban said, referring to Russia’s war in Ukraine, which he visited on July 2.

“Hungary is slowly becoming the only country in Europe that can talk to everyone,” he added, referring to Russia’s diplomatic and economic isolation from Europe since the country began a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

When Orban took over the six-month rotating presidency of the European Council, he sought the prestige of a mediator, analysts told Al Jazeera.

“The prospect of peace is so tempting that everyone wants to claim victory and say, ‘I brought peace to Europe,'” says Victoria Vdovychenko, program director for security studies at the Ukrainian think tank Centre for Defence Strategies.

“Talking to Putin and Putin really having to listen – that’s what everyone wants, because Putin only listens to himself,” Vdovychenko told Al Jazeera.

Putin apparently listened.

When Orban began his trip, the Kremlin dismissed it as irrelevant.

“We do not expect anything,” Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on July 2 when Orban visited Kyiv.

Three days later, when Orban spoke to Putin in Moscow, the tone was different.

“We view this very, very positively. We believe it can be very useful,” Peskov told reporters.

“Talking to Trump is a new move”

Orban then travelled to Beijing on July 8 to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping – an unannounced leg of the trip – before attending the 75th NATO summit in Washington DC last week.

He then met with Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump in Florida. Trump “will solve the problem,” he was quoted as saying on July 11.

Last year, Trump boasted that he would end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours of taking office as president – an approach that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called “very dangerous.”

“Donald Trump, I invite you to Ukraine, to Kyiv. If you can end the war within 24 hours, I think it will be enough to come here,” Zelensky said in an interview in January.

“Talking to Trump is a new move and Orban thinks like a very pragmatic businessman,” Vdovychenko said. “What is in his interest? A fantastic maneuver to bring all the autocratic regimes together and bring them to Trump.”

Has Orban achieved anything? He seemed to believe so.

In a leaked letter to European Council President Charles Michel, Orban said Putin was “ready to consider any ceasefire proposal that does not serve the covert redeployment and reorganization of Ukrainian armed forces.”

Both Russia and Ukraine reject the idea of ​​a ceasefire on the grounds that it would give the other side time to regroup.

The European reactions to Orban’s peace initiative were clearly critical.

“This is about appeasement. It is not about peace,” said European Commission spokesman Eric Mamer.

Josep Borrell, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, said Orban “does not represent the EU in any way”.

Orban’s escapades are nothing new. He is the only EU head of state to refuse the transit of weapons destined for Ukraine through his territory. He and Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer were the only EU heads of state to visit Moscow since the invasion.

Last year, he was the only European head of state to attend the tenth anniversary celebrations of the Belt and Road Initiative, a global infrastructure development program, in Beijing.

Now the EU member states have announced that they will not participate in a peace summit planned by Orban for August 28 and 29 and will instead hold their own meeting.

Never before has a country currently holding the EU Council Presidency been snubbed in this way.

European politicians have told the Financial Times that there have been secret proposals to boycott all ministerial meetings during Hungary’s EU presidency or to strip the country of the presidency altogether – an unprecedented move.

Conflicts between Hungary and the EU

Orban seems to love confrontation.

Last December, he was the only EU leader to speak out against inviting Ukraine to join the EU. The other 26 EU leaders partially overcame his veto by offering to release 10 billion euros ($11 billion) in EU subsidies.

In February, Orban refused to pledge 50 billion euros ($55 billion) in financial aid to Ukraine over four years, but he relented and proposed an agreement, the details of which were not disclosed.

In March, Sweden became NATO’s 32nd member after overcoming another Hungarian veto.

“There was considerable pressure within (the alliance) that made it clear that his opinion would not be taken seriously if it was merely an obstructive opinion,” Benjamin Tallis, an international relations expert at the Zentrum Liberale Moderne, a Berlin-based think tank, told Al Jazeera.

The EU governs by consensus and Hungary’s exceptionalism has angered many people.

The European Commission’s legal service said Orban’s peace offers violated the EU treaties, which “prohibit any measure that could jeopardise the achievement of the Union’s objectives”.

In January, the European Parliament condemned Orban’s December veto and called on the Council of Heads of Government to investigate Hungary for “serious and persistent violations of EU values”.

This could have led to a suspension of Hungary’s voting and veto rights, but Europe initiated such a procedure, known as Article 7, against Hungary in 2018 and failed because the system requires unanimity in the Council. Poland supported Hungary then, and it is believed that Slovakia or the Netherlands would do so now.

“He has not been sufficiently warned to create a long-term deterrent. He does not believe we are serious,” Tallis said.

Like many other Ukraine supporters in Europe, Tallis believes that Orban is using his EU presidency to destroy European values.

“Orban has made it clear that he does not support Ukraine’s victory. If Ukraine does not win, it will also help undermine Europe’s liberal democracy because it creates a grey area right at the heart of European geopolitics that will constantly be used against us,” Tallis said.

Tallis believes it is time to take tougher action: the EU must consider freezing the aid payments from Brussels that were released last December and forcing Hungary to choose a side.

“We have not yet got the Hungarian people to put pressure on Orban because we have not forced them to choose between the benefits of living under a corrupt regime that funnels EU money to them and paying their democratic dues,” he said.

“They voted for Orban four times. They made themselves clear. If there is a possibility that they will be kicked out of the EU and given limited membership in NATO instead of full membership, then I think the equation starts to change.”

He added: “There has to be a break.”