Urban warfare researcher considers war crimes allegations against Israel to be “unfounded”
John Spencer, urban warfare researcher and retired US officer, explained on Sunday why the accusations against Israel of committing crimes against humanity are baseless and what danger this poses to Western countries.
On X (formerly Twitter), he posted that the International Criminal Court (ICC) was misinterpreting Israel’s actions in the war.
He said he welcomed the court’s attempts to bring war criminals to justice, but that in this particular case it was a wrong decision to accuse Israel in this way. In his view, it was a move that could perversely achieve the exact opposite goal.
Spencer said setting such high standards for avoiding harm to civilians could make governments feel constrained in their response to terrorist attacks in self-defense.
This could have a deterrent effect on states that adhere to international legal norms, while giving a bonus to recalcitrant states like Russia or non-state actors like Hamas that ignore such norms, he said.
“The war in Gaza is different from almost any other war I have experienced,” he continued. “The terrain, the density of tunnels beneath population centers, the nature of the enemy and the presence of hostages – all of these combine to make this a war that is particularly difficult to fight without bloodshed.”
“What I saw in Gaza convinced me that Israel was taking the necessary steps to avoid civilian casualties, even as it was constantly criticized for its conduct in the war.”
Spencer made these statements the day after an Israeli strike on Muhammad Deif, whose fate after the attack is unclear, and the successful elimination of Khan Yunis Brigade commander Rafa’a Salameh. Both were staying in a camp for displaced persons, where civilians were also present. Following the attacks, accusations against Israel of intentionally harming civilians resurfaced.
https://t.co/AJ8a2WhqKm
— John Spencer (@SpencerGuard) July 13, 2024
Spencer argues that Israel has done far more than one would expect of a state in its efforts to avoid harm to civilians. The conditions of war in a dense urban area that includes a network of tunnels over 650 km long deliberately built under civilian and protected sites, and in which some 40,000 enemy fighters are entrenched in the civilian population with the aim of assimilating while holding over 200 hostages – these are conditions that make it very difficult to avoid harming the civilian population.
According to Spencer, it is clear that Israel made mistakes in this war, like every other country. However, accusations such as “starvation of civilians as a method of war” and “deliberate attacks against civilians” ignore mountains of contradictory evidence.
The ICC announced in May that it would issue arrest warrants for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant “for war crimes and crimes against humanity” allegedly committed during the war in Gaza following the October 7 attack.
Do everything possible to reduce civilian casualties
Spencer said Israel has implemented almost all of the civilian harm reduction methods required in urban warfare, as well as the legal norms set out in international humanitarian law, and has also created some new methods that the military has never tried before. These include giving civilians a longer evacuation period by ensuring safe routes for civilians and a humanitarian area to flee to during the fighting itself, and sending personal text messages and drone announcements to inform civilians that they need to evacuate.
Spencer argues that no military has ever used all these direct electronic means to reach civilians. The same goes for the “tap the roof” tactic, which allows civilians to evacuate a specific building before it is bombed.
Another key claim made by Spencer is that “nobody knows how many civilians have died in Gaza, especially not Hamas.” According to him, it is impossible for organizations to determine the number of civilian deaths to single digits on a daily basis. This is because the fog of urban warfare is thicker than on any other battlefield.
Spencer argues that the ICC’s war data and arrest warrants raise questions about whether a country attempting to comply with international humanitarian law can wage war at all—particularly in urban areas—or even defend itself.
According to him, The Hague’s answer is a clear “no”, even to an enemy that cares little about protecting its own population. Rather, it pursues a strategy of human sacrifice to cause the death of as large a part of its population as possible.
Ironically, by labelling Israel’s leadership as war criminals, the ICC could reduce the deterrent effect other countries seek by deploying large armies and expensive weapons. The result, Spencer said, could be “open control” for recalcitrant actors like Hamas, as well as recalcitrant countries like Russia, Iran or North Korea.
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