Cooler weather likely at the end of next week

After a chance of showers and thunderstorms this weekend and into early next week, cooler weather is likely for the end of next week and into next weekend.

Our active weather pattern that we have had for the past few days will continue for at least the next week. Currently, there is a high level of confidence that a strong upper level disturbance will move through Michigan on Wednesday. This will lead to cooler but drier conditions for several days.

Here is the American model forecast for 500 mb or about 18,000 feet. An upper atmosphere disturbance is moving over Michigan on Wednesday with a trough or cooler air higher in the atmosphere moving east toward the Atlantic. While rain is likely with the initial cold front on Wednesday, high pressure is moving behind it leading to dry conditions.

The European model shows a very similar picture, with the low pressure system moving across the eastern part of the United States and staying there for several days. This gives us more confidence in this if there is agreement so far out.

The Climate Prediction Center has given Michigan a 40-50% chance of lower than normal temperatures Wednesday through Sunday. Average temperatures for this time of year in Lower Michigan are just above 27 degrees. A first look at the forecast shows highs of just above 25 degrees for the end of next week, gradually rising to just above 27 degrees by the end of the weekend. So these temperatures are by no means frigid, just lower than the temperatures we normally have this time of year.

During this time, conditions are also drier.