Former envoys: Ukraine’s accession to NATO could trigger another world war

As Ukraine is on the verge of joining NATO, and former Nigerian envoys and foreign policy analysts have expressed concern that this could prolong the ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia and escalate it into another world war.

NATO was founded in 1949 by twelve countries, including the United States, Great Britain, Canada and France. The members agreed that if one of the countries was attacked, the others should help defend it.

The main purpose of the group was to block the expansion of the Soviet Union – a group of communist republics that included Russia – in Europe.

As a reminder, in September 2022, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky applied for NATO membership after Russia announced that it had annexed the southeast of the country.

Russia had always opposed Ukraine’s accession to NATO because it feared that this would bring the alliance’s forces too close to its borders, leading to a war between the two countries.

However, in a summit declaration in Washington published on Wednesday, NATO heads of state and government said Ukraine was on an “irreversible path” into the group.

The summit declaration, signed by all 32 NATO countries, expressed the group’s determination to finally accept Ukraine as a member.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said at the summit that the question of Ukraine’s NATO membership was not a question of if, but of when. He added that the war between Russia and Ukraine could only be ended “by securing NATO membership for Ukraine. Otherwise, Russia could continue its aggression.”

NATO also announced further integration with the Ukrainian military and members, pledging €40 billion ($43.3 billion, £33.7 billion) in aid over the next year, including F-16 fighter jets and air defense support.

Although NATO has not yet announced an official timetable for Ukraine’s accession to the group, analysts say Ukraine’s admission into the North Atlantic League could prolong the ongoing war with Russia.

Analysts also said the war between Ukraine and Russia could spread to other countries, especially those in West Africa.

In an interview with Sunday PUNCH, retired diplomat Ambassador Adesola Abolurin said both Russia and NATO must be ready to end the war by committing to peace.

Abolurin said: “Ukraine’s plans to officially join NATO were the fundamental reason for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Ukraine borders Russia, was previously part of Russia, and Russia is very suspicious of its NATO neighbors, as they pose a significant threat to Russian security.

“Last year, Ukraine was very disappointed that it was not officially admitted to NATO. I think the reason for this was that NATO probably knew that Russia would not like this, which would further escalate the war between Russia and Ukraine.

“I fear that if we are not careful, this thing could lead to another Cold War, if not a full-scale world war. Because I don’t think China will withdraw its support for Russia, even if it denies being an arms supplier to Russia. But everyone knows that China, even if it does not do this directly, does so through Iran and North Korea.”

Former Director General of the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs, Prof. Bola Akinterinwa, also said in his lecture that if Ukraine joins NATO, its war with Russia could prolong and eventually spread to other countries, especially in West Africa.

“The first consequence is that the war will be prolonged because Russia will not accept Ukraine’s admission to NATO. This is not possible because the reason Russia went to war with Ukraine was because the country was getting closer to NATO and trying to become part of the West. In fact, Russia is trying to restore the former Soviet Union. But if its war with Ukraine is prolonged, it will spread to other countries as well because it will be toxic. In West Africa, they have already chased America away in Niger. The US military base in the country has been closed.

“Also, the American ambassadors have been sent away and the military cooperation between Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger with France has ended. And Russia is filling the vacuum left by France in these countries. Also, Russia is replacing America in Niger. So what do you think will happen? There will probably be a fight between America and Russia. Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger have signed a defense pact called the ‘Alliance of Sahel States’. And Burkina Faso is now playing the role of Ukraine. The Burkina Faso junta has equipped itself with massive weapons in preparation for a possible ECOWAS attack. So there is a possibility that the war between Russia and Ukraine will spread to West Africa,” explained Prof. Akinterinwa.

Yemi Farounbi, former Nigerian ambassador to the Philippines, expressed a similar view, saying: “Ukraine’s accession to NATO would pose an even greater challenge for Russia. But Russia would not be afraid to resume the war either.”

According to Farounbi, Russia would not retreat from the war against Ukraine, but would rather enter into a larger war with NATO.

He said: “If Ukraine joins NATO, it will mean a greater challenge for Russia. But the origin of the war between Russia and Ukraine has to do with NATO, its existence and structure.”

“Russia argues that there was a need for NATO when the USSR existed. NATO was a counterweight to the USSR; when the USSR disintegrated into 15 republics, there was no longer a need for NATO.

“If NATO blames Ukraine, it will only escalate the war. It is unlikely that this will frighten Russia into submission. Russia’s argument has always been that there is no need for NATO if the USSR no longer exists. The situation will only get worse if one of the successor republics of the USSR is admitted to NATO.

“I do not believe that NATO will pose a military threat to Russia. As far as we have seen so far, NATO and America will only supply Ukraine with equipment and weapons. The experience they have had in Vietnam and Kuwait would not allow them to send their personnel to fight in Ukraine. They will continue to send weapons, but the people who die will be Ukrainians.”

“So it will not be a threat or scare Russia. It will not stop Russia from breaking Ukraine up on a linguistic level. Russia’s argument is that parts of Ukraine are actually Russian and that Russian is spoken there. That is the area that Russia is trying to conquer and incorporate into its territory.

“Admitting Ukraine to NATO will only strengthen Putin and Russia’s resolve, rather than pushing them to retreat. We may just be laying the groundwork for a larger war on a larger scale.”

“The consequences of Ukraine joining NATO are essentially military. It will allow NATO to supply weapons to Ukraine. Currently, NATO is helping Ukraine not out of responsibility but out of compassion for humanity. If Ukraine becomes a member, it will be NATO’s responsibility as an organization to protect Ukraine’s survival and continued existence.”