How high should the Twins value their depth at the trade deadline?

Carlos Correa batted second and played shortstop in the Minnesota Twins’ final home game of the 2022 season. He had a disappointing July (.175/.264/.350) during his first season with the Twins, but he hit .355/.412/.589 in the final month of what many thought would be his only season in the Twin Cities. It looked like a typical Minnesota sports story. Correa played his best baseball in September for a team that finished with 78 wins and then left as a free agent.

Maybe Correa was Minnesota’s Music Man. He had come to save the Twins a year after they had World Series aspirations following two AL Central championships, only to leave a sub-.500 batting average for a big-time team on the coast. José Miranda (.272/.325/.435) batted ahead of Correa in that Sept. 29 game against the Chicago White Sox. Luis Arráez (.315/.372/.419) batted behind him, but the rest of the lineup didn’t offer much of a challenge to Lucas Giolito.

Gio Urshela and Gary Sánchez, the holdovers from Minnesota’s ill-fated salary swap of Josh Donaldson with the New York Yankees, batted fourth and fifth in the lineup. Former fifth-rounder Nick Gordon batted seventh and post-hype candidate Gilberto Celestino batted eighth. Rocco Baldelli had rookie Matt Wallner batting ninth. Injuries had largely sapped the Twins’ offensive power, and they ceded the division to the Cleveland Guardians in the final month of the season.

In response, the Twins front office added depth to the roster last year. They re-signed Carlos Correa, brought in Donovan Solano late when he seemed redundant, and signed Michael A. Taylor to replace Byron Buxton in center field. They were so deep that they sent Wallner down after hitting .363/.714/1.000 from May 23-28.

Minnesota’s additional investment in roster depth paid off. Royce Lewis spent the first half of the season recovering from his second ACL injury, Buxton never played center field, and Correa suffered from plantar fasciitis. Still, the Twins posted 87 wins, winning a playoff game for the first time since 2004 and a playoff series for the first time since 2002.

However, the Twins announced they would cut salaries this season due to the instability of their television contract, which limited their player base. Some players like Carlos Santana and Manuel Margot started slowly and have been more productive recently. However, they lost their starter Sonny Gray to the St. Louis Cardinals in free agency, and Kyle Farmer has regressed this year (-0.5 WAR).

Due to injury, Anthony DeSclafani has not pitched this season, forcing Louie Varland into the major league rotation. Willi Castro had to take Farmer’s place as Minnesota’s all-rounder. Most of the other holes were filled by young players. Brooks Lee filled in for Lewis when he was injured and appears to be ready for the major leagues. David Festa made two appearances when Chris Paddack needed a rest due to arm fatigue. Wallner has overcome his slump and Trevor Larnach has made a comeback this year.

The Twins have developed their outfielders well, so they have too many players to fill the gaps they need to fill when everyone is healthy. If Austin Martin can back up Buxton at center and Larnach and Wallner can play the outfield corners, where will Max Kepler fill in long-term? And if Lewis, Correa and Lee man the infield, where does Edouard Julien fit?

However, they only have too much depth if everyone stays healthy and Larnach and Wallner don’t slip back into a slump, and depth was key to the Twins winning last year. So as much as they could use a playoff starter and another reliever as insurance in the bullpen, they also need depth in case injuries occur late in the season. Minnesota led the AL Central for most of the year in 2022, only to give it up when injuries piled up. In contrast, Correa, Lewis and Buxton weren’t healthy for most of the season last year, and they got further in the playoffs than they had in over two decades.

The Twins need to balance depth, long-term competitiveness and urgency as the deadline approaches. They shouldn’t get caught up in offers from their top four young players at the deadline. Walker Jenkins, Lee, Emmanuel Rodriguez and Festa are part of their future and will help them keep their window of opportunity open. The outcomes of individual games and series are random compared to other sports, and the best teams give themselves multiple chances to win in the playoffs. Jenkins, Lee, Rodriguez and Festa are cost-controlled players with potential who should be part of Minnesota’s core going forward.

But major organizations also push to fill needs at the deadline. The Twins need to make sure they have three viable playoff starters, and that may mean parting with outfielders to win now. Winning teams trade an area of ​​surplus to fill an area of ​​need, and Minnesota lost Gray, a viable playoff starter, in the offseason. Unless they believe Bailey Ober or Simeon Woods Richardson can start a playoff game, they need to add a starter with postseason qualities.

Minnesota’s identity this season is ultimately a hard-hitting, bullpen-driven team. Joe Ryan has pitched at a near All-Star level this year, and Pablo López’s underlying numbers suggest he’ll pitch like an ace again. The Twins will also need a healthy lineup to mount offense in the postseason, and a bullpen capable of getting the ball to Griffin Jax and Jhoan Durán late in games. Only if they find the right balance of aggressiveness and caution at the deadline will they have a strong roster that can build on last year’s success.