MLB DFS: Model picks and value plays at DraftKings for July 12

FantasyLabs’ MLB player models contain numerous data points to help you build your MLB DFS rosters.

They include our floor, center and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our trend tool, stacking tool and more.

Also, don’t forget that for large field tournaments, you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you want to manually build your teams for cash games or small field tournaments.

Let’s take a look at some MLB plays that stand out in our player models for today’s roster.

Bargain Rating Selection

You may be wondering: What is the bargain rating and why should I care?

Bargain Rating shows how cheap a player is on one DFS site compared to others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than another, he will have a positive Bargain Rating on the site where he is cheaper and a bad Bargain Rating on the site where he is more expensive. It’s a simple metric, but targeting players with discounted prices is almost always a good strategy in DFS.

Bargain rating is highly correlated with player value, which you can quickly see with our projected plus/minus metric.

Given that Plus/Minus helps you estimate a player’s likely number of points compared to what his salary implies, this is a good company for bargain valuation.

MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value

Juan Yepez ($2,400): First Baseman, Washington Nationals

Juan Yepez was called up to the Nationals on July 5 and has a positive plus/minus in each of the seven games he has played. The ceiling may not be sky-high, but at $2,400, Yepez is a low-risk bet as a lineup filler.

After seven games, Yepez has a batting average of .308/.400/.462 with two RBIs. He has at least one hit in every game. In 111 total major league games, Yepez has a .394 xSLG and a 38.1 hard hit percentage.

The Nationals are facing Freddy Peralta tonight in Milwaukee with a 6-4 record and a 3.95 ERA.

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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Tips

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Garrett Crochet ($10,300) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

The White Sox starter leads the American League with 146 strikeouts and ranks third with an ERA of 0.97. Garrett Crochet is 6-6 with a 3.08 ERA in 19 starts.

Crochet has one of the highest upsides in the game with his outstanding strikeout potential. He has a 34.8 K% this season and six double-digit strikeout performances on the season.

Using Plate IQ, the Pirates have a .138 ISO and a .312 wOBA against left-handed pitchers this season. Against Crochet, they have a low run projection and a very low hit projection. The model is expecting another high strikeout total today in Chicago.

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Julio Rodriguez ($5,200) at the Los Angeles Angels

At the top of the main board is the Mariners star Julio RodriguezAfter a rough June at the plate, Rodriguez has a .407/.448/.741 batting average and two home runs so far in July.

This season, Rodriguez has a batting average of .259/.308/.358 with nine home runs and 32 RBI. He added 18 stolen bases to his fantasy totals, but had a disappointing 2024 season overall. He has 26-point and 31-point games in his last six starts, but also some duds.

The Mariners have a difficult matchup against the Angels. Tyler AndersonThe left-hander is 8-8 with a 2.81 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP.

More DraftKings MLB DFS hitters and pitchers

One of the great benefits of a FantasyLabs Pro membership is the ability to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.

A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X by Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. This purchase allows you to use his projections alone or create aggregated projections within our player models.

For this example, we created a 50/50 blend using THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to identify some hitters that stand out with this blend.

MLB DFS Pitchers

Joe Ryan ($9,800) at the San Francisco Giants

With the best control numbers of his career, Joe Ryan has a record of 6-5 and a 3.29 ERA in his first 18 starts. The Twins right-hander has a K% of 27.7 and a very low BB% of 3.7 to limit the number of free base runners.

Ryan has posted 20+ DraftKings performances four times in his last six starts. He is allowing an elevated hard hit rate of 47.0 and a barrel rate of 9.5%.

He faces a Giants team with two high ISO hitters and three high wOBA hitters. Their projected team has a 23.9 K% and a .315 wOBA against right-handed pitchers.

Available now: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator, which uses the power of simulation to create advanced DFS lineups.

MLB DFS BatsS

Jonathan India ($4,500) vs. Miami Marlins

The Reds have one of the highest implied run totals on the list against Miami tonight. Jonathan India continues to post career-best numbers with a hitting line of .276/.375/.419 in 86 games.

India has two straight games with 15+ DraftKings points in his last two nights with a plus/minus average of +1.31 in his last 10 games. He has improved his eye at the plate with a BB% of 12.1 and in turn has career highs in xBA (.289) and sweet spot rate (41.5%).

Cincinnati takes over right-hander Yonny Chirinos This is his fifth start of the season. He is yet to record a win or loss and has a 4.19 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP.

George Springer ($4,100) at the Arizona Diamondbacks

By most accounts, this has not been a stellar season for the Blue Jays’ veteran outfielder. George Springer was more successful in July with a batting line of .278/.366/.528 and two home runs.

Overall, Springer has a batting average of .221/.310/.362 with 10 home runs and 34 RBI. He has a plus/minus average of +2.86 over his last 10 games, with four DraftKings point scores of 15+ during that span.

The Diamondbacks trot Ryne Nelson today in Arizona. The 26-year-old right-hander is 6-6 with a 5.08 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP. He has allowed just one run in each of his last two starts.