Next wave of severe storms already predicted for Michigan and the Great Lakes region

A series of storm systems will move from southern Canada into the Dakotas and then toward Michigan and the Great Lakes. NOAA’s Severe Weather Prediction Division is already forecasting severe weather threats for Michigan.

Here in Michigan, we don’t have to worry about severe thunderstorms. Sunday morning could see the first severe thunderstorms in southwestern Lower Michigan with this next series of three disturbances. With this type of upper-level flow and numerous embedded disturbances, the timing and location could change a bit.

This is just a small indication that we are likely to have another stormy period ahead from Sunday to Tuesday.

Here are the severe weather forecasts from the Storm Prediction Center for basically Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. Looking at the forecast models, Michigan has the highest chance of severe storms, with the final disruption occurring either late Monday or Tuesday.

Note that the severe weather forecasts for each day have the same general shape and are pointing in the same direction, southeast. This means what we call ridge runner storms coming over the top of the extremely hot dome to the west and moving southeast into the Great Lakes region. This can produce our classic, significant severe weather in the Great Lakes region.

The forecast below for Saturday into Sunday morning indicates a weakening, but still potentially severe, storm complex moving toward southwestern Lower Michigan early Sunday morning.

According to the severe weather forecast for Sunday through Monday morning, slightly stronger storms could occur in the southwest and central western Michigan.

I agree with the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) that the likelihood of organized severe storms is greatest between Monday and Tuesday. It is quite rare for the SPC to commit to a severe weather forecast three days in advance.

This is just a reminder that all outdoor projects may be impacted by severe thunderstorms late this weekend and early next week.

Of course, we will keep you updated here this weekend if necessary.