US post-war Gaza plans clash with President Biden’s faltering campaign

Gulf Arab states are playing it safe about Donald Trump’s return to the White House, telling the former president’s surrogates they are ready to wait for his new administration, an unexpected setback for the Biden administration’s Middle East diplomacy.

The Gulf states’ calm reaction to poll numbers suggesting Trump’s chances of returning to the White House are improving stands in sharp contrast to the panic among some of the U.S.’s European allies, who are nervous about how Trump will handle NATO and Russia’s war against Ukraine.

“It’s a story of two partners,” Gregory Gause, a Gulf politics expert at Texas A&M University, told Middle East Eye. “The Europeans and the Gulf states have both lived through a Trump term. For the former, it was a disaster; for the latter, it was pretty good,” he said.

“They know exactly what to expect and are not worried.”

The Biden administration has a number of outstanding issues to resolve with the oil-rich Gulf states. The most pressing issue concerns achieving a ceasefire in Gaza and developing a plan for the post-war administration of the enclave.

The administration’s approach is two-pronged. Middle East envoy Brett McGurk and CIA director Bill Burns are pushing for a hostage deal in the region that would lead to a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel, while Biden’s loyal adviser Amos Hochstein is tasked with brokering an end to the fighting between Hezbollah and Israel.

If the shooting stops, it would be a tactical victory that would give the government time to work out a normalization agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel. To get Riyadh on board, the US is currently negotiating a nuclear energy deal, a security guarantee and expedited arms deliveries, former US officials confirmed to MEE.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Washington and Riyadh could be “weeks” away from concluding talks in May, but for Saudi Arabia to normalise its relations with Israel, Israel must support a credible path to a Palestinian state.

That was already a serious challenge, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu resisting the move. Biden’s poor performance in the debate and growing calls within the Democratic Party for him to step down add a new complication, analysts say.

“Saudi Arabia is desperate because it sees Iran becoming more powerful and popular”

– Abdullah Baabood, Malcolm H. Kerr, Carnegie Middle East Center

To address its concerns about the US’s continued presence in the region, Riyadh is demanding that the US sign a defense treaty.

Both the Trump and Biden administrations contributed to Saudi Arabia’s unease about its ally’s commitment to regional security.

In 2019, the Trump administration remained inactive after an attack on the kingdom’s Aramco oil facilities, blamed on Iran, knocked out nearly half of Saudi Arabia’s daily oil production.

Biden further stoked Saudi Arabia’s fears when he promised to make the kingdom a “pariah” over human rights issues. Under his watch, the US later withdrew Patriot missile defense systems from Saudi Arabia.

“Saudi Arabia is ready for a deal”

Abdullah Baabood, a non-resident scholar at the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center, told MEE that the Biden administration’s efforts to rebuild the partnership and Riyadh’s decision to restore diplomatic relations with Iran did not mean the kingdom had abandoned its fears about its vulnerability – hence Saudi Arabia’s focus on a defense deal.

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“Saudi Arabia is ready to make a deal, no matter who offers it to them. They are desperate because they see that Iran is becoming more powerful and popular because of the Gaza war,” he said.

“So they will work with any government that promises a defense treaty.”

But Biden would likely have to mobilize support for a defense treaty in the Senate – a difficult task given that his party is divided on whether he should even be considered as their candidate.

“Ultimately, Saudi Arabia will see a defense deal as a victory for itself. They will not say, ‘We’ll wait for Trump or Biden to sign it,'” Elizabeth Dent, senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told MEE.

“But at this point, it is clear that none of this will pass Congress before the November elections,” she said.

“Bring back Trump”

While the US’s European partners quickly embraced Biden after his election victory, the Gulf states always kept the door open for his predecessor. Jared Kushner, Trump’s Middle East negotiator and son-in-law, and his wife Ivanka Trump were received by Qatari officials at the 2022 World Cup.

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The Trump Organization, run by the former president’s sons Donald Jr. and Eric, has announced real estate deals in Oman and Saudi Arabia. The Saudi Public Investment Fund, the sovereign wealth fund chaired by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, also invested $2 billion in Kushner’s hedge fund Affinity Partners. Qatar and the United Arab Emirates made smaller investments.

“When the Gulf states talk to Trump, it is somehow seen as shameful, but when NATO countries address Trump’s surrogates, it is claimed that they want to find common ground. This is biased,” an Arab diplomat told MEE.

And there is no doubt that the Gulf states are trying to reach out, say officials who once worked in the Trump White House.

“I know people the Saudis have spoken to, and they are very frustrated and want Trump back,” Fred Fleitz, the former chief of staff of the National Security Council under Trump’s administration, told MEE.

If Biden is seen as a president without influence, it could undermine his administration’s ability to persuade and convince Gulf states and other Middle Eastern allies to make the difficult decisions Washington is asking them to make.

The Biden administration wants Israel and Hamas to reach a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip.

“I don’t think the Israelis want to raise any money for the Biden administration,” Fleitz said.

Stall?

During the US presidential debate in June, Trump accused Biden of not allowing Israel to fight in the Gaza Strip.

“Israel is the country that wants to move on. They should let Israel go and finish the job,” he said.

The Biden administration largely supports the Israeli offensive in the Gaza Strip, but criticizes the high number of Palestinian deaths.

The Biden administration is pushing Gulf states to help with security and reconstruction in the besieged Gaza Strip. Middle East Eye reported that Bahrain – a close ally of Saudi Arabia – has expressed its willingness to send peacekeepers to Gaza. Much of Bahrain’s police force is made up of Jordanians, some of whom are of Palestinian descent.

Even though the Arab League supports the deployment of a UN-mandated international force to Gaza, any deployment in the Gaza Strip following Israel’s devastating offensive will be extremely unpopular with the Arab population, which largely supports the Palestinian cause.

“The Biden administration will not be able to make progress on post-war planning for Gaza in the next four months because if it looks like Trump’s chances of winning are increasing, the Israeli government will delay concessions and the Gulf states will hesitate,” Gause said.

“Why do something for Biden if Trump is elected?”