The final men’s major of the season is upon us and after successfully picking Bryson DeChambeau at the US Open last month, Golf Monthly betting expert Barry Plummer is back to help you pick the winner at Royal Troon.
The list of names who have already won a major title this season is a who’s who of golf, so I wouldn’t be surprised if this title goes to one of the greats.
This doesn’t detract from the obvious value of this event, however, as Brian Harman reminded us last year that high-profile winners are perfectly capable of lifting one of golf’s finest trophies, the Claret Jug. In this comprehensive betting guide, Barry Plummer shares his best bets and value picks for the 152nd Open Championship…
Betting on the Open Championship 2024: The course
This famous Ayrshire golf course is steeped in history and has been the scene of some of the most iconic moments of the Open Championship. In 2016, Henrik Stenson took on Phil Mickelson in a true classic, and the Swedish star prevailed thanks to a final 63.
The course will be longer than it was eight years ago when Stenson and Mickelson faced each other. The official map for this year’s Open Championship is 7,385 yards, 195 yards longer than in 2016, with the par-5 fourth hole accounting for almost a quarter of that extension (44 yards longer).
The most famous hole is undoubtedly “Postage Stamp”, a tricky par 3 that lurks in the curve. It may be short, but it’s a challenge: it has a narrow green that’s only 27 meters long and around 9 meters wide.
The wind will certainly play its part and to win the Claret Jug players will need to strategize their path and avoid the dangers of the rough and bunkers that are typical of Scottish links golf.
The previous winners
2023: Brian Harman (-13)
2022: Cameron Smith (-20)
2021: Collin Morikawa (-15)
2020: Cancelled due to the COVID-19 pandemic
2019: Shane Lowry (-15)
Who will win the 2024 US Open? Bazza’s banker…
(Image credit: Getty Images)
Xander Schauffele (14/1) stormed to victory at the PGA Championship in May, breaking the men’s major championship points record in the process. The eight-time PGA Tour winner is statistically the second-best golfer in terms of strokes gained (SG) since the start of the major season: Total, only world number one Scottie Scheffler has been able to surpass him.
Schauffele has finished in the top 10 four times in his last five starts, with the outlier being a tied 13th at the Travelers Championship last time out. Considering he’s almost twice the price of Rory McIlroy, who hasn’t won a major in more than a decade and agonizingly missed a great chance to break that unwanted winning streak at the US Open, I believe he offers excellent value compared to the other favorites in the overall betting market.
(Image credit: Getty Images)
Another player I like higher up the board is Viktor Hovland (22/1)who, despite a dark phase in recent months, is still one of those who have waited the longest to win a major championship.
Things haven’t gone as planned since his Tour Championship win last year, but there are early signs that Viktor is getting back to his best. Since missing the cut at the Masters, Hovland has gained strokes off the tee and on the way to the green in each of his last five starts, gaining at least one stroke on the field in both key metrics on three of those five occasions.
Three top 20 finishes, including a 3rd place at the PGA Championship, suggest he is close to hitting his peak form and if he can do that, I think this could be the perfect place for his first major title.
Who will win the 2024 US Open? The value picks…
(Image credit: Getty Images)
Max Homa (80/1) is a ridiculous price to win the Claret Jug and I can only assume it’s because he hasn’t been at his best recently. Although his strokes gained data suggests a bit of a slump, his form in this event and in Scotland generally is hard to ignore.
Homa finished tied for 10th at the Open Championship last year, but in his two previous appearances at the Genesis Scottish Open he finished in the top 16 both times. His “poor” form, if you can call it that, still consists of a tied for 3rd at the Masters and a tied for 8th at the Wells Fargo Championship, with a total of 8 top-25 finishes in 16 starts this season.
At this price, I can’t ignore the value of Max Homa’s respective bets and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him compete again in this part of the world.
(Image credit: Getty Images)
I am really excited about my final selection and once again can’t believe the price offered. Dean Burmester (150/1) was sensational this season: at the end of 2023 he won the DP World Tour twice and just three months ago he took his first LIV Golf victory in Miami.
His 2024 performances also include two third-place finishes at LIV Mayakoba and LIV Adelaide, and a shared 12th-place finish at the PGA Championship shows he can compete in the majors.
Burmester is in top form at both the Open Championship and other events on Scottish soil, finishing 7th at the 2021 Alfred Dunhill Links and 10th at the 2022 Genesis Scottish Open. He finished tied for 11th in his last Open appearance at St Andrews.
A strong start on LIV Andalucia means he could even add another win before he tees off at Royal Troon, so I believe he represents incredible each-way value at this price.
