Nato summit: China’s role in the war between Russia and Ukraine arouses criticism

As NATO heads of state and government collected in Washington for a groundbreaking summit and issued Despite its “irreversible” support for Ukraine and its sharp criticism of Beijing for its support for Russia, China conducted maneuvers with Belarusian troops on the eastern edge of the alliance.

The 11-day joint military exercises, called Eagle Assault 2024, began on July 8 – the eve of the NATO summit – and are taking place near the Belarusian city of Brest, about five kilometers from the Polish border.

The drills are the first of their kind between China and Belarus and reflect the growing defense ties between the two countries and are intended to send a signal of resolve to NATO, analysts and officials say.

“The timing is no coincidence,” Sari Arho Havren, an associate fellow at London’s Royal United Services Institute, told RFE/RL. “There are many elements coming together here that send a clear message: China is deepening its relations with a like-minded country in Europe that supports its broader goals.”

At a press conference on July 5 ahead of the exercises, which were described by the defense ministries of Belarus and China as anti-terrorist exercises, Vladimir Kupriyanyuk, deputy chief of the General Staff of the Belarusian Armed Forces, said said The maneuvers were a reaction to the “aggressive foreign policy of the West towards Belarus” and to “Ukrainian provocations.”

“The NATO grouping on the border with Belarus is growing rapidly, which is leading to an increase in tensions in the region,” the Belarusian Defense Ministry said said in a post on Telegram warning of a “harsh reaction” if someone “crosses the borders of Belarus”.

The ongoing exercises come just days after Belarus became the tenth member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a regional defense bloc led by China and Russia.

At the NATO summit in Washington, the alliance deviated from previously sober comments about China and openly accused the country of supporting Russia’s war effort against Ukraine. The joint statement by all 32 NATO members called Beijing a “key enabler of Russia’s war” and warned of unspecified consequences for “its interests and reputation” for enabling “the largest war in Europe in recent history.”

Beijing immediately dismissed the allegations as “lies and slanders” and said the exercises were not directed against any country. But the statement and the ongoing exercises are likely to contribute to rising tensions between China and NATO.

“Western allies are slow to catch up on what China’s game with Russia and countries like Belarus actually is,” said Arho Havren. “But there is a growing realization that one should focus on what China does and not what it says.”

NATO’s Eastern Flank

The Belarusian Defense Ministry said that Belarusian and Chinese troops will practice air strikes, a river crossing and fighting in residential areas as part of the joint exercises.

The Chinese Defense Ministry said in a statement that the armed forces would also practice hostage rescue and anti-terror operations.

“What is currently being done in Belarus is quite limited in terms of military exercises, but for Minsk it is a valuable and practical message to show that the regime is not only dependent on Russia,” Katia Glod of the Center for European Policy Analysis told RFE/RL.

Belarus was one of Russia’s closest allies following its large-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The country provided logistical support and maintained air bases for the war effort. The country also recently deployed Russian tactical nuclear weapons on its territory.

For Belarus’ authoritarian leader, Alyaksandr Lukashenka, these exercises come at a time when he continues to rely heavily on Russia – his main sponsor and ally – since he became a pariah in the West in 2020 after his controversial re-election, which the opposition and the West denounced as rigged, led to a crackdown.

Since then, Lukashenka has become increasingly hostile towards the West and especially NATO.

Poland not only served as a springboard for the Russian war effort, but accused Minsk has decided to allow thousands of undocumented migrants into Belarus and direct them to the common border, an entry point into the European Union.

“A hybrid war is taking place on the Polish-Belarusian border, as well as on the Latvian, Lithuanian and Estonian borders,” said Polish Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz before the start of the Belarusian-Chinese exercises.

The exercises and Minsk’s close military ties with Russia have also led to tensions with NATO’s Baltic members.

“Lithuania is in a dangerous neighbourhood,” said Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said on July 9 at the Hudson Institute in Washington. “Any attack on NATO in our region would come through Belarus. There is no way around it. It’s simply geography.”

Warming of relations

China is another Key element – and an increasingly important economic player – of Lukashenka’s geopolitical calculations in recent years, when he navigates between Beijing, Brussels, Moscow and Washington want to exploit strategic advantages and secure urgently needed loans and investments.

China, previously a very active investor in Belarus, has not offered Minsk a new project or loan since 2019 and appears to have withdrawn from the country in the face of the domestic political crisis that has politically isolated Lukashenka from Europe and made him a less attractive partner for Beijing.

This makes Lukashenka politically and financially dependent on Russia, but he remains committed to strengthening relations with China.

One area where cooperation has continued to grow is military relations between the two countries, which have long maintained contacts, especially in the area of ​​technology transfer. In 2015, Minsk announced the completion of its Polonez multiple rocket launcher, which military experts say uses modified Chinese designs and was developed with Chinese assistance.

The Polonez was developed after Moscow refused to sell its Iskander missile system to Belarus at a cheaper price. Lukashenka then turned to Beijing to gain strategic distance from Russia.

“After Lukashenka lost his ability to act vis-à-vis the West, he needed another option to break away from his heavy dependence on Russia,” Glod said. “China has given Belarus the opportunity to be that partner.”

Belarus’s accession to the SCO is seen as part of this development and as a kind of new role for Minsk, which thereby consolidates its position between China and Russia, while the partnership between the two countries has deepened since Moscow’s all-out war against Ukraine.

Navigating this new terrain was also a topic of discussion at the NATO summit in Washington.

The Western military alliance invited its Indo-Pacific partners Australia, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea to Washington, where they discussed how to deepen cooperation and coordinate countering Beijing’s potential expansion plans in the South China Sea and elsewhere in the region.

In addition to the concerns raised by Poland and Lithuania, other NATO countries close to the Ukraine war also warned that a Ukrainian defeat could embolden China.

A Russian victory “does not just mean that security in Europe will be worse,” Czech President Petr Pavel said at a NATO forum on July 10.

“Globally, it will be much worse because it will also encourage China to become more confident and aggressive.”

By RFE/RL

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