Russian missile attack likely targets F-16 airfield in Starokostjantyniv

Russian attack planners launched a targeted but, according to Kiev, unsuccessful attack on the Khmelnytskyi region’s air base in Starokostiantyniv on Friday. The Ukrainian airfield is considered to be the best prepared for the soon-to-arrive American F-16 fighter jets.

According to reports, Kremlin Tu-95 Bear bombers fired five Kh-101 cruise missiles at the Ukrainian Air Force’s main bomber base shortly before midnight on Thursday – the same weapon that was responsible for the bloody attack on a Kyiv children’s hospital on Monday.

By early Friday morning, all missiles had been shot down, as well as 19 Shahed kamikaze drones that had been launched from Russia’s Kursk region to accompany the cruise missiles and distract air defenses, the Ukrainian Air Force said in a statement.

Khmelnytsky’s social media and news platforms reported the attack and explosions in the sky on Friday, which resembled previous successful intercepts. Russian military bloggers reported a nighttime attack on the airfield but did not report any specific damage.

Ukrainian forces also intercepted and destroyed an unspecified number of Russian drones of a new type, possibly a deception, the independent news portal Ukrainska Pravda reported, citing military sources.

During a NATO summit in Washington DC on July 10, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that American F-16 jets paid for by Denmark and the Netherlands “are already being handed over to the Ukrainian military.”

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The long-awaited arrival of the capable but technically complex fourth-generation fighter jet in the skies over Ukraine has turned attention to the air bases suitable for operating these aircraft, which require long runways free of debris such as gravel and grass, as well as extensive maintenance and support infrastructure.

In 2018, as part of a high-profile proof-of-concept exercise, California National Guard flight and maintenance crews flew several F-15 fighter jets—an aircraft just as complex to operate as the F-16—to Starokostiantyniv Air Base to train with the Ukrainian Air Force.

Since the invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces in February 2022, Starokostyantyniv has served as the main air base for the Ukrainian bomber fleet. Despite repeated Russian attacks and regular Kremlin announcements that all of Kyiv’s aircraft had been destroyed, the Ukrainian Air Force continued to operate Su-24 bombers from the airfield.

Perhaps the most devastating attack from Starokostiantyniv took place in September 2023, when Su-24 bombers armed with British Storm Shadow and French SCALP anti-ship missiles destroyed a Russian Navy heavy attack ship and missile submarine and demolished the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in the Crimean port city of Sevastopol.

The most recent major Russian attack on Starokostiantyniv took place on June 14, when Russia fired 10 cruise missiles, one surface-to-surface missile and 17 kamikaze drones at the base. Ukrainian air defense forces claimed to have shot down seven cruise missiles and all the drones. No damage was reported.

Oleksandr Musienko, a researcher at the Kyiv Center for Military-Legal Studies, said in a television interview in June that Kremlin planners were hoping for a “lucky hit” in the attacks, destroying a plane or pilot on the ground. But since Ukrainian pilots usually have enough warning time to evacuate the planes or take cover before the Russian missiles arrive, the main goal of the Russian attacks on Starokostiantyniv was to destroy the air base’s infrastructure.

The Kremlin wants to make Starokostiantyniv – the only known base in Ukraine that is fully suitable for the use of technically complex Western aircraft – incapable of using F-16 jets efficiently, Musienko told the news channel ICTV.

“We understand very well that the enemy understands this and is looking at how F-16s are deployed from Starokostiantyniv. They want to destroy it… they want to damage the infrastructure. Antennas, radars, support facilities, repair and maintenance. They are looking for storage sites for SCALP and Storm Shadow missiles… all this is being done to hinder the deployment of F-16s in Ukraine,” he said.

Some Ukrainian military researchers have confirmed that Russia continues to put pressure on the Starokostyantyniv airbase. The Oko Hora research community, in a July 6 analysis of Russian long-range attacks on Ukraine, said the airbase was the primary target of Russian kamikaze drone and missile attacks in June and was in the crosshairs of about half of the 368 long-range weapons fired by the Kremlin that month.

Russian journalists covering military aviation also pointed out that Starokostyantyniv airfield is the most likely base for Ukrainian F-16 fighter jets.

The defense infrastructure includes reinforced concrete hangars and modern radar installations, they say, and the Kremlin’s attack planners cannot know in advance how many and what types of aircraft are on the field. In addition, few of the Russian weapons that can reach the airfield are powerful and accurate enough to destroy an aircraft in a bunker. The solution, wrote the unofficial military blogger of the Russian Air Force, Fighterbomber, is to bomb the airfield repeatedly, destroying everything that can be damaged.

“This airfield, like Vasylkiv airfield, is today the main airfield of the Ukrainian Air Force and the most protected by air defense. Naturally, we consider it a prime candidate for the deployment of the F-16,” Fighterbomber, a poster claiming to be a Russian Air Force fighter pilot, wrote in an article on Thursday.

“That is why attacks on Starokostyantyniv are carried out with drones and other types of long-range weapons against targets outside shelters, as well as against shelters whose protective doors do not close, which allows the hope of damaging the aircraft with explosions or shrapnel… Work on this destruction is carried out around the clock. Everyone is waiting for the F-16. They (vulgar Russian word for Ukrainians) and we too,” said blogger Fighterbomber.

Baku-based military analyst Agil Rustamzade also predicted that Russian attacks would continue and probably even intensify.

“Against the background of statements by American and European officials about the beginning of the transfer of F-16 aircraft to Ukraine, attacks on airfields are likely to increase,” Rustamzade said in a statement on Friday.