War between Israel and Hezbollah … worse than the flood in Al-Aqsa

In conflicts, both sides often set traps for each other. But today, in the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, it seems as if both sides are falling into their own traps.

In the current conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, both sides are seeking escalation, although they deny any interest in expanding the war.

Israel continues its military exercises for expansion. Polls show that the population supports the war, although the numbers have recently declined. This support worries the military leadership in Tel Aviv, which fears that the population underestimates the consequences of the war.

Former Israeli security adviser Eyal Hulata warns that such a war could devastate parts of Lebanon and cause significant damage in Israel, possibly resulting in around 15,000 deaths.

The Terrorism Research Institute at Reichman University conducted a study with 100 military and academic experts on possible war scenarios with Hezbollah.

Their findings were alarming: They warned that such a conflict could quickly escalate across multiple fronts and involve not only Hamas and Islamic Jihad in the West Bank but also Iranian militias in Syria, Iraq and Yemen.

The study predicted that Hezbollah could fire 2,500 to 3,000 rockets a day for 21 days. The rocket attacks would target military bases, cities such as Tel Aviv and important infrastructure facilities such as power plants, gas fields, desalination plants, airports and weapons depots.

This attack would likely cause great chaos among the Israelis.

In addition, Hezbollah could implement its strategy of sending “Radwan” units into Israel’s borders to occupy towns there, similar to what Hamas did during Operation Al-Aqsa Flood on October 7.

The scenario of “Gaza-style destruction” was originally put forward to dampen calls for an army invasion of Lebanese territory.

The Israeli military, wary of political pressure from the right and its own concerns about war, responded by publishing plans that suggest a serious willingness to go to war.

Leaked exercises suggest they are preparing for a large-scale ground invasion aimed at occupying southern Lebanon up to the Litani River and possibly further to the Zahrani River.

They say that if Hezbollah rejects a political agreement to stay away from the borders, the military will enforce it by force.

They detail that the war could begin with heavy air strikes, similar to those in Gaza, and then begin with ground troops.

According to military sources, Israel has belatedly received US weapons, including smart bombs, to be used for air strikes at least on suburbs in southern Beirut and the Bekaa region.

The Litani River is four kilometers from the border at its closest point and 29 kilometers at its furthest point. It covers an area of ​​1,020 square kilometers. It includes three large cities: Tyre (175,000 inhabitants), Bint Jbeil and Marjayoun. Half a million people live in them, and over 100,000 are homeless.

Occupying this entire area will not be easy. Hezbollah is stronger than Hamas, has a more extensive network of tunnels and modern weapons. It has been prepared for this war for a long time.

If Israel plans a short, 21-day war, there is no guarantee that it will meet that timeframe and it risks becoming once again embroiled in Lebanon’s conflicts.

The Israeli military is preparing for a long war and is building up emergency reserves in hospitals, factories, government buildings and emergency shelters.

They fear that Hezbollah could fire thousands of rockets and drones and attack important infrastructure facilities such as power plants, water desalination plants and gas sources.

The latest exercises also take into account possible direct Iranian involvement, which could affect shipping in the Red Sea and possibly lead to attacks on Cyprus, meaning that all of Israel could face serious threats.

The Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies reports that Hezbollah has already fired over 5,000 missiles from Lebanon, killing 33 people and causing significant damage to both civilian and military targets in Israel.

There are growing concerns about the future of northern Israel, including 28 evacuated settlements and the town of Kiryat Shmona, whose residents are unsure when they will be able to safely return home.