MLB DFS: Model picks and value plays at DraftKings for July 11

FantasyLabs’ MLB player models contain numerous data points to help you build your MLB DFS rosters.

They include our floor, center and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our trend tool, stacking tool and more.

Also, don’t forget that for large field tournaments, you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you want to manually build your teams for cash games or small field tournaments.

Finally, be sure to check out PlateIQ – one of the most powerful research sources you can find for MLB DFS.

Let’s take a look at some MLB plays that stand out in our player models for today’s roster.

Bargain Rating Selection

You may be wondering: What is the bargain rating and why should I care?

Bargain Rating shows how cheap a player is on one DFS site compared to others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than another, he will have a positive Bargain Rating on the site where he is cheaper and a bad Bargain Rating on the site where he is more expensive. It’s a simple metric, but targeting players with discounted prices is almost always a good strategy in DFS.

Bargain rating is highly correlated with player value, which you can quickly see with our projected plus/minus metric.

Given that Plus/Minus helps you estimate a player’s likely number of points compared to what his salary implies, this is a good company for bargain valuation.

MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value

Xavier Edwards ($2,300): Shortstop, Miami Marlins

It’s been nearly two weeks since Xavier Edwards made his triumphant return to the Miami Marlins lineup, and the early results are promising. The highly touted shortstop has a catalyst at the bottom of the order but still earns a reduced salary. This imbalance makes him one of the most valuable players on today’s main roster.

Since returning to the lineup on July 2, Edwards has had hits in all but one of his eight appearances. Overall, he has 10 hits, two doubles, two RBIs and three runs scored, making him one of Miami’s most consistent producers. More importantly, that output is coming from a very sustainable place.

Edwards has an appealing analytical profile. He makes more sweet spot contact than almost any other hitter in the MLB, making optimal contact 43.8% of the time. In addition, the 24-year-old shows above-average speed and bat discipline for his age, resulting in one of the purest contact profiles in the game.

Edwards will inevitably be a cornerstone of the Marlins’ lineup for years to come; however, his salary will eventually increase to reflect his solid performances. For now, you can add the Marlins’ shortstop to the roster for a generous $2,300 salary and expect him to produce more fantasy power than you’re paying for.

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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Tips

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Tanner Houck ($9,500) vs. Oakland Athletics

A home game against the low-performing Oakland Athletics is exactly what Tanner Houck needs to snap out of his recent slump. Granted, he allowed just one earned run in his last start against the New York Yankees, but the Boston Red Sox pitcher lasted just 3.1 innings, gave up three total runs and struggled with control, giving up four walks. But on Thursday night, he faces a much more forgiving A’s team.

Despite recent setbacks, Houck still has a top-notch analytical profile. His above-average expected ERA and strikeout rate are complemented by excellent underlying metrics. The Missouri native is excellent at getting batters to chase his pitches outside the zone, boasting a 32.8% chase rate, which puts him in the 87th percentile. Likewise, batters are unable to make solid contact on any of Houck’s offerings, hitting the ball home just 5.7% of the time, which is good enough to put Houck in the 80th percentile.

That’s without even considering the Athletics’ lineup, which remains one of the worst in the major leagues. So far this season, Oakland has the second-most strikeouts and the seventh-worst OPS. The Athletics have taken a more free-wheeling approach of late, which will be their undoing against Houck. The bottom-of-the-alley AL West team has suffered 56 strikeouts in its last five games, putting them at a significant disadvantage on Thursday.

After a series of lackluster performances, Houck is ready to bounce back on Thursday. He sits atop our median and ceiling projections, making him our preferred pitcher on the main roster.

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Shohei Ohtani ($6,500) vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Every now and then it’s worth taking a look into the world of Shohei Ohtani, and tonight is one of those nights. The Los Angeles Dodgers are looking to save their series against the Philadelphia Phillies and hope to get at least one win before facing the Detroit Tigers this weekend. Thankfully, they can count on Ohtani to do his part on offense.

Analytically, no one can keep up with Ohtani. The Los Angeles Dodgers hitter ranks in the 100th percentile in barrel rate and hard-hit rate, expected batting average and slugging percentage. As we’ve seen over the past few seasons, Ohtani has translated that into MVP-worthy results on the field.

That’s especially true since the calendar year began in June. The four-time All-Star has increased his slugging percentage to .682 during that time, but his season benchmark of .635 remains below the expected level of .664. That suggests we’re in the midst of an Ohtani correction phase and the uptrend should continue against the Phillies.

Ohtani is more expensive than the other batters available on a daily basis, but as we can see, he is worth the investment. A fact that is also reflected in his top-notch PlateIQ profile. That will be the case again Thursday when he leads the Dodgers into the series finale at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia.

More DraftKings MLB DFS hitters and pitchers

One of the great benefits of a FantasyLabs Pro membership is the ability to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.

A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X by Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. This purchase allows you to use his projections alone or create aggregated projections within our player models.

For this example, we created a 50/50 blend of THE BAT X and FantasyLabs projections to identify some hitters that stand out with this blend.

MLB DFS Pitchers

Brandon Pfaadt ($7,300) vs. Atlanta Braves

It’s not too late to jump on the Brandon Pfaadt bandwagon. The Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander has been on a tear lately, posting peak numbers over the last month. Pfaadt’s traditional numbers continue to be above expectations, suggesting his run will continue with another strong performance against the Atlanta Braves.

Pfaadt lasted just 4.1 innings last time out, but showed off his strikeout skills, striking out six San Diego Padres in limited fashion. That’s in addition to the eight batters he struck out in his previous outing, a good start in which he allowed just one earned run in 6.0 innings with eight punchouts. It was also his third good start in four starts, underscoring his recent performances.

Pfaadt’s analytics profile suggests he will continue to find success through the bump. The 25-year-old has an expected ERA of 3.51, good enough for the 69th percentile. He also ranks in the 60th percentile in chase rate and 62nd percentile in barrel rate, highlighting his potential to strike out batters without allowing hard contact.

The Atlanta Braves aren’t the same team without Ronald Acuna Jr. in the lineup. Over the past two weeks, they’ve amassed the eighth-worst OPS and the third-most strikeouts, complicating their outlook going forward. In the short term, the Braves have a tough time against an up-and-coming pitcher, making Pfaadt the best value pitcher on the board tonight.

Available now: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator, which uses the power of simulation to create advanced DFS lineups.

MLB DFS Bats

Julio Rodriguez ($5,100) vs. Los Angeles Angels

We’ve been waiting for Julio Rodriguez to break through for months, and now, just before the annual All-Star Game, we’re seeing the first signs of it. The Seattle Mariners center fielder should have no problem maintaining his top performance in today’s main game against the Los Angeles Angels.

J-Rod hasn’t had four hits in a game since, but it’s his power hitting that has us excited about his future prospects. Four of Rodriguez’s last eight hits have resulted in extra bases, including two home runs and two doubles. That has pushed his slugging percentage up to .350 for the season, which is still well off the expected benchmark of .454.

As expected, his increased productivity at the plate correlates with improved run production. Rodriguez has scored nine runs since the beginning of the month, scoring six and driving in three.

J-Rod will surely be part of the welcoming committee that introduces Jack Kochanowicz to the major leagues. Rodriguez has led the M’s recent rise, which has seen the AL West leaders score a total of 27 runs in their last six games. Rodriguez is at the top of our prediction list and we expect him to max out against the Halos.

Yandy Diaz ($4,100) vs. the New York Yankees

A tepid start to the season has ruined Yandy Diaz’s chances of matching last year’s great results. But if we take a closer look at his recent sample, we see that there hasn’t been a better leadoff man in all of baseball. The Tampa Bay Rays first baseman can prove his worth again tonight in the divisional battle against the New York Yankees.

In late May, Diaz had a lackluster OPS of .661, unbecoming of a leadoff hitter. But he has since turned things around, hitting .819 in June, punctuated by a 20-game hitting streak that ended on June 29. After a cooling-off period, we’ve seen Diaz return to his stellar form.

Before today’s game, the reigning Silver Slugger has a more modest four-game hitting streak. In that small sample size, Diaz has six hits, a double and a home run, for two runs and four RBIs. He is expected to improve on that total against left-hander Nestor Cortes.

As expected, right-handed hitter Diaz puts his best foot forward against lefties, with his OPS rising from .676 against righties to .842 against lefties, accounting for nine of his 26 extra-base hits in just 88 at-bats.

Given Cortes’ hard hit rate of 45.1% and barrel rate of 7.9%, expect Diaz to continue his recent onslaught. We’re betting he and the Rays will enter the weekend feeling good and become the Yankees’ starter in the series finale.