Series preview: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals

With the All-Star break looming, the Brewers will close the first half with a three-game series against the Washington Nationals.

The Nationals have been very bold this season with some interesting players, but their play has not been consistent enough to make them believe they are an underdog for a wild card spot. Of course, they play in a tough division with the Phillies and the Nationals, but the Nationals will still give Milwaukee a decent challenge.

Washington has gotten a lot of power from unexpected places, as players like Jesse Winker and Luis Garcia Jr. have been hot in recent weeks. Over the last 30 days, Winker’s 157 wRC+ and Garcia Jr.’s 126 wRC+ rank second and third on the team, respectively.

The only other player to outperform them recently is young shortstop CJ Abrams. His impressive season earned him an All-Star selection as he looks to be a key part of Washington’s future. This season, Abrams is slashing .274/.349/.491 (134 wRC+) with 14 home runs and 14 stolen bases. His all-around contributions make him the Nationals’ most dangerous player.

Recently called-up James Wood is another player to keep an eye on in this series. Considered one of the top prospects in baseball, Wood has had a promising start to his major league career, posting a .250 batting average and a notable .372 on-base percentage through his first 10 games.

Probable pitchers

Friday, July 12, 7:10 p.m.: Freddy Peralta (3.95 ERA, 3.71 FIP) vs. Jackson Rutledge (9.00 ERA, 14.17 FIP)

Freddy Peralta has been performing well lately, but he’ll be looking to rebound from an abbreviated outing against the Los Angeles Dodgers. He gave up three runs in four innings, but the three walks were another sign that he’s allowed a few too many walks this season. One area where Peralta has seen significant improvement in the last week is that he’s allowed a lot less contact in the zone. In his last five starts, he’s allowed just a 74.6% contact rate, compared to his season rate of 80.3%.

The Nationals’ expected starter, Jackson Rutledge, made just one appearance this year, allowing one run in one inning. In 20 innings in 2023, Rutledge allowed a 6.75 ERA. Even in Triple-A, Rutledge had serious control issues this year, with a BB/9 of 5.02.

Saturday, July 13, 3:10 p.m.: Dallas Keuchel (4.61 ERA, 6.47 FIP) vs. Mitchell Parker (3.44 ERA, 3.92 FIP)

Dallas Keuchel has performed admirably in his first three starts for the Brewers, but his FIP of 6.47 suggests that may be a mirage. His recent outing against the Dodgers was a prime example of the odd contribution he makes, shutting down a dangerous lineup 4 ¹⁄₃ innings, but he managed five walks without striking out a batter. That may not be a robust profile, but the Brewers would be grateful for another solid outing.

Mitchell Parker has been one of the young Nationals players who has impressed this season, with a 3.44 ERA and decent control. He doesn’t excel in many areas, but he limits walks and has an interesting four-pitch mix with a four-seamer, curveball, split finger and slider. The Brewers have played about league-average against left-handers, so splitting them in the platoon shouldn’t be an insurmountable hurdle for Milwaukee.

Sunday, July 14, 1:10 p.m.: Colin Rea (3.81 ERA, 4.67 FIP) vs. Jake Irvin (3.13 ERA, 3.63 FIP)

Colin Rea has had some incredible results this season, but his low strikeout profile can lead to some big innings for opponents if the ball doesn’t land properly. That’s been evident in some of his recent starts. Over his last four games, he’s allowed an average exit velocity of 93.9, compared to 89.6 mph at the start of those four starts. His hard hit percentage has increased from 40.8% year-over-year to 51.4% during that time. It will be up to Rea to return to the weak-contact, suppressive style he showed earlier in the year.

Jake Irvin has been one of the most impressive success stories this season. He has played long games and shown drastic improvements from last season. He is walking significantly fewer batters and allowing fewer home runs. After three starts in which he allowed two runs in 20 innings, Irvin was beaten up by the Mets in his last appearance. He allowed six runs in six innings and allowed two home runs. But even in some of his tougher starts, he has managed to battle through the innings and help the Nationals bullpen with length.

forecast

The Brewers look to be the better team overall here. The Nationals have some intriguing players, but Milwaukee’s overall depth and quality should carry them in a three-game series. Parker and Irvin were good enough for Washington to steal a game, but I think the Brewers will win two of three before the All-Star break.