By Ramzy Baroud 
Trump’s policies are unashamedly Machiavellian. During his only term in office between 2017 and 2021, he played the role of the American genie, granting Israel’s every wish.
Many political analysts believe that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is trying to buy time in Gaza and Lebanon in the hope that Donald Trump will return to the White House after the elections next November.
Whether this is the case or not, Trump is unlikely to influence the outcome of the war or change Israel’s fate this time.
US foreign policy seems to be driven by two different views: one devoted to the whole world, the other to Israel alone. The first is guided by the famous and oft-repeated quote by former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger: “America has no permanent friends or enemies, only interests.”
However, Israel remains the exception and the ongoing Israeli war against Gaza has once again proven the truth of this claim.
Although Washington fully shares Israel’s war aims, it fundamentally disagrees with Netanyahu’s concepts of a long war and “total victory.”
Two protracted wars in Afghanistan and Iraq have taught the United States that neither the longevity of wars nor lofty, unrealistic expectations can change their inevitable outcome.
In fact, many U.S. officials, military generals and mainstream analysts have tried in vain to warn Netanyahu.
Destabilization of the Middle East at this historic juncture is simply bad for the United States. It comes at a time when Ukraine is suffering from a severe shortage of weapons and thus territorial losses, and at a time when American and European allies are struggling under the weight of economic and political crises.
Because U.S.-Israel relations are governed by a unique foreign policy paradigm, the Biden administration continues to support Israel in every way possible so that the country can continue a losing war.
The war, of course, has come at the cost of over 125,000 Palestinians killed or wounded so far by Israeli attacks, artillery shelling and mass executions. The number of those dying of starvation or disease has not yet been fully determined.
Washington is not concerned about the genocide in Gaza itself, but about the outcome of the war against US plans in the Middle East and the future of its forces, especially in Iraq and Syria. It is also concerned about its geostrategic influence in the region due to the unprecedented instability of the Red Sea.
Yet Joe Biden continues to arm Israel and provide a safety net for the country’s dwindling economy. On April 20, the House of Representatives passed a bill providing Israel with $26.3 billion in aid. In addition, massive arms shipments to Israel continue to flow unhindered.
These bombs not only destroy the entire Gaza Strip, but also any chance the US had of regaining credibility in the Middle East. Worse still, the US’s blind support for Israel has also shaken Washington’s international position.
So what could Trump do that Biden didn’t?
Trump’s policies are unashamedly Machiavellian. During his single term in office between 2017 and 2021, he played the role of America’s genie in a bottle, granting Israel’s every wish, even though all of these demands represented blatant violations of international law.
Trump’s pro-Israel policies included recognizing all of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, annexing the Golan Heights, and recognizing all illegal Israeli-Jewish settlements in the West Bank.
But Netanyahu is also a Machiavellian, a fact that annoyed Trump after his humiliating departure from the White House.
“I haven’t spoken to him since,” Trump said of the Israeli leader in an interview with Axios’ Barak Ravid in December 2021. “Screw him,” he said.
But now both sides are trying to rekindle their old love affair. The Republican presidential candidate is likely to be pleased with Netanyahu’s public criticism of the Biden administration. In return, Trump is ready to “finish the job,” as he declared in the first presidential debate on June 27.
However, Trump’s return will not change Israel’s misfortune since October 7, because Israel’s problems do not originate in Washington.
Israel’s crisis is multifaceted. It cannot win the war in Gaza, despite the great tragedy and destruction it has caused there. Nor can Israel change the rules of engagement in Lebanon because its enemies are so strong and Israel’s military is incapable of fighting and winning on multiple fronts – let alone one.
Another dimension of the Israeli crisis is internal: deep divisions in Israeli society, the security apparatus and politics. Not even Trump can bridge this gap or end the polarization that is likely to deepen in the future.
Trump is likely to prove equally ineffective on the international stage, again for the simple reason that the Biden administration has disregarded the international consensus on Israel since the war began. The current US House of Representatives even went so far as to pass a bill to sanction the International Criminal Court (ICC) after its prosecutor requested arrest warrants against Israeli officials.
If Netanyahu thinks Trump will offer him a better deal than Biden, he is mistaken. Biden has proven to be the biggest American supporter in Israel’s 76-year history.
Ironically, the US’s unconditional support for Israel may have been a factor in its downfall.
“To be an enemy of America can be dangerous, but to be a friend is deadly,” Kissinger also said. And he is not wrong.
– Ramzy Baroud is a journalist and editor of The Palestine Chronicle. He is the author of six books. His latest book, co-edited with Ilan Pappé, is entitled Our Vision for Liberation: Committed Palestinian Leaders and Intellectuals Speak Out. Dr. Baroud is a non-resident senior research fellow at the Center for Islam and Global Affairs (CIGA). His website is www.ramzybaroud.net
