NATO is to coordinate part of the security support for Ukraine. How this will work

WASHINGTON (AP) — NATO is expected to the summit This week, a new program is to be launched to provide Ukraine with reliable military assistance and prepare it for joining the alliance.

The plan will complement, but not replace, the two-year-old Ukraine Defense Contact Group, which was created by U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin after Russia Invasion in February 2022 to Ukraine. This group, which includes more than 50 nations from Europe and around the world, is coordinating the delivery of urgently needed weapons and training to Ukraine.

But the fact that the US Congress failed to fund any weapons at all for months due to partisan deadlock late last year and early this year, as well as similar delays in funding from the European Union, underscore how vulnerable this effort is to the whims of politics.

And the delays allowed Russian troops to gain the upper hand on the battlefield and led to numerous complaints from Ukrainian forces about a lack of equipment and weapons.

Some representatives described the new NATO organization as a way to be “Trump-proof” The alliance would support Ukraine if former President Donald Trump wins the November election. But that could be far-fetched.

The following is planned and will or will not happen:

Ukraine Defense Contact Group

Over the past two years, the US-founded group has evolved into an increasingly sophisticated and well-organised group that has so far pumped more than $100 billion worth of weapons, equipment and training into Ukraine.

The United States alone has sent more than $53.6 billion in security assistance, including about $25 billion in presidential arms withdrawal authorizations to remove weapons from Pentagon stockpiles and send them quickly to Ukraine. The United States has provided more than $27 billion in longer-term funding for arms contracts through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative.

The remaining NATO members and other international partners have provided weapons and security assistance worth about $50 billion, estimates the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, an independent research institute based in Germany.

An international coordination center has been set up at Lucius D. Clay Barracks, the U.S. military base in Wiesbaden, to identify Ukraine’s needs and find equipment, weapons and spare parts in other countries that could meet those needs. This group could eventually be absorbed into the new NATO organization.

And the Contact Group has established eight so-called capability coalitions led by different countries that focus on specific military requirements: such as combat aircraft, tanks, artillery, naval assets, air defense, mine clearance, cyberspace and drones. These are expected to continue.

The new NATO plan

Under the plan, which was approved by NATO defence ministers last month and is due to be endorsed by heads of state and government on Thursday, the alliance will take a broader role in coordinating training and equipment donations.

The team will be based at the US Garrison Wiesbaden in Germany and is expected to be led by an American three-star general. There will be about 700 personnel, including some who will work at logistics hubs in eastern allied nations.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said the new program would put support for Ukraine “on a more solid footing for the years to come,” but at the same time prevent the alliance from becoming involved in the war between Russia and Ukraine.

And NATO has also pledged to provide at least 40 billion euros ($43.3 billion) over the next year and “provide a sustained level of security assistance to Ukraine to help it prevail,” taking into account budget plans and other agreements.

The new coordination programme is called NSATU (NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine) and will cover three main areas:

1. the development of the Ukrainian armed forces and their training in allied facilities

2. Planning and coordinating contributions from allies and partners and delivering them through logistics hubs in countries such as Poland, Romania and Slovakia

3. the repair and maintenance of equipment

A way to help Ukraine join NATO

A crucial aspect of the new NSATU is that it will facilitate Ukraine’s efforts to join NATO.

Membership in the alliance requires that countries meet a range of political, economic and security criteria. For example, Ukraine’s armed forces must meet certain standards of conduct and training, and their weapons and equipment must be compatible with those of other allied countries.

Over time, the NSATU will help ensure that Ukraine’s weapons and training meet the requirements for NATO membership.

Announcing the initiative earlier this year, Stoltenberg said it would help organize the training of Ukrainian military personnel in NATO member states, coordinate and plan donations of equipment needed by Kyiv, and manage the transfer and repair of this military equipment.

But is it Trump-proof?

Probably not.

A major incentive for NATO as a whole, according to some representatives, is the concern that Trump card could regain the presidency and reduce support for the alliance and aid to Ukraine.

Earlier this year, Trump reiterated his threat that he would not defend NATO members who did not meet their defense spending targets. And he Trigger alarms in Europe by proposing Tell Russia to attack NATO allies he thought he was a criminal.

And the gap in U.S. funding for Ukraine this year was the result of resistance from Trump’s Republican allies in Congress, who had blocked the aid package for months.

While shifting some of the aid to Ukraine under the NATO umbrella provides more continuity, any change in the U.S. administration could also lead to changes in U.S. policy, including spending restrictions on aid to Ukraine or other diplomatic or military operations.

For example, participation in the Ukraine Contact Group and any other Pentagon program could be turned upside down.