HomeNews UpdateOpinion | The US and China owe the world to do their best to prevent war in East Asia
Opinion | The US and China owe the world to do their best to prevent war in East Asia
July 10, 2024
These agreements could pave the way for a formal trilateral military alliance in response to a regional conflict.
A war is brewing in East Asia. Russia, China and North Korea, three nationalist authoritarian regimes, see war as necessary to ensure the survival of the regime when it is threatened. The war in Ukraine is crucial to the legitimacy of Putin’s regime, and failure could cost him everything. For President Xi Jinping, the reunification of Taiwan is an important Source of legitimacy for the Communist Party of China. The survival of the regime is also of utmost importance for North Koreawhere Kim would not hesitate to use nuclear weapons if the survival of his regime was threatened.
This is in contrast to Western liberal democracies, where politics is more flexible and subject to regular elections. In short, these three authoritarian regimes are ready for war if their survival is threatened.
The world is not facing a new Cold War, but a hot war on a large scale. The first shot could have been Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which will escalate and Expansion to Eastern Europewhich could potentially lead to conflicts on the Korean peninsula and in the Taiwan Strait. The two military blocs will be the warring parties.
03:11
Three days after William Lai’s speech, the People’s Liberation Army launches a blockade around Taiwan
Three days after William Lai’s speech, the People’s Liberation Army launches a blockade around Taiwan
It will not only be a conventional war. There will probably also be a nuclear war, since all the major warring parties, including the United States, Russia, China and North Korea, are nuclear powers. Japan and South Korea could also quickly become nuclear powers.
Such a war would not be limited to East Asia but could spread worldwide, at least to the vast Eurasian continent. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could affect the entire NATO if the conflict spreads to Eastern Europe. The conflict across the Taiwan Strait could escalate into a direct military confrontation between China and the US, potentially involving Southeast Asian countries and others. throughout the Asia-Pacific region.
The looming conflict in East Asia brings simultaneous tensions on the Korean peninsula and in the Taiwan Strait, revealing a complex web of regional security relationships. China views Taiwan an important part of its territory, while North Korea sees it as a strategic buffer.
China has made significant efforts to defend Korea in numerous conflicts throughout history, such as the Imjin War and the First Sino-Japanese War. Not only territorial integrity but also the fate of Taiwan were at stake. For example, China’s inability to protect Korea in the First Sino-Japanese War led to the loss of Taiwan to Japan.
03:05
Putin and Kim sign ‘strongest defense treaty ever’ amid growing tensions with the West
Putin and Kim sign ‘strongest defense treaty ever’ amid growing tensions with the West
Even when these military efforts were successful, they often came at a high cost, such as the heavy toll of the Korean War. Should Beijing decide to use military force for reunification with Taiwan, North Korea and Russia are likely to be important allies, underscoring the strategic link between the security situation in Taiwan and on the Korean peninsula.
The key to preventing war in East Asia is for democratic countries to engage in dialogue with the three authoritarian regimes without endangering their stability. If the survival of their regimes is at stake, war is inevitable and the consequences could be catastrophic for the world. It would be a strategic mistake for the West to make regime change its goal.
China holds the key to peace, as it has all the levers needed to persuade Russia and North Korea not to take extreme measures. China is North Korea’s largest trading partner and a major donor of development aid. It is also Russia’s largest trading partner: Bilateral trade amounted to 240 billion US dollars last year, an increase of 26 percent over the previous year.
Russia is increasingly dependent on China as its invasion of Ukraine drags on. Moreover, China is the country most integrated into the world economy. Therefore, China has the influence, capacity and will to secure peace in East Asia and prevent war.
The US should avoid escalating tensions and stick to its “one China” policy, ensuring that the US-Japan-South Korea group does not develop into a full military alliance. In addition, the US should refrain from taking actions that China sees as supporting Taiwan’s independence, such as Sale of modern military equipment to the island.
East Asia is on the brink of war. All potential warring parties must contribute to the peace effort before it is too late. China and the United States in particular have a special responsibility in this effort for peace and must steer their relations in the right direction.
Zhang Xiaotong is a professor at the Institute of Political Science and International Relations and director of the Center for China and Central Asian Studies at KIMEP University in Kazakhstan.
