Zach Bryan’s “Great American Bar Scene” against Taylor Swift for 1st place

Trevor Pavlik

The candidates is a weekday column that looks at artists who have risen to the top of the Billboard diagrams and the strategies behind their efforts. Next week (for the upcoming Billboard 200 With a new album out July 20, Taylor Swift is aiming for her longest No. 1 spot yet, but her efforts could be interrupted by another star’s new set.

Zach Bryan, The great American bar scene (Bat Bronco/Warner): The 2020s marked a long rise to superstardom for singer-songwriter Zach Bryan. The country and Americana artist’s presence on streaming and as a live performer grew from project to project until his mainstream breakthrough in 2022 with his American Heartbreak album and its hit single “Something in the Orange,” and then reached a new high in 2023 with his self-titled set, which topped the Billboard 200, and the accompanying Billboard Hot 100-topping collaboration with Kacey Musgraves, “I Remember Everything.” Now, in the midst of a U.S. tour of arenas and stadiums, Bryan is releasing his first album as an undoubted A-lister: The great American bar scene.

The new 18-track set already includes a major hit: lead single “Pink Skies,” which debuted at No. 6 on the Hot 100 in June and is still hanging around the chart’s top 15 this week, and a second Hot 100 entry with “Purple Gas,” which features Noeline Hofmann (and is a reworking of a song she originally wrote and recorded). The record also features first-time collaborations with two artists with long chart-topping histories of their own—John Mayer on “Better Days” and Bruce Springsteen on “Sandpaper”—and already has something of a new breakout hit of its own in the shuffling ballad “28,” which is still in the top 10 on both Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA chart and Apple Music’s real-time list. (If the Springsteen song debuts on the Hot 100, it would be his first entry since 2009, and if it goes above No. 95, it would be his most successful hit in nearly 20 years (since 2005’s “Devils & Dust” reached No. 72).)

The set should do very high streaming numbers—but there are a few factors working against a No. 1 debut. For one, Bryan pushed to release the album on July 4—last Thursday—rather than the usual Friday, meaning that first-day stats count toward that week’s chart, not next week’s. (First-day numbers were still high enough for the album to debut at No. 17 on the Billboard 200 on July 13.) More pressing is that the LP is currently only available digitally, and isn’t scheduled to arrive on CD and vinyl until October 11. And while “28” is off to a good start, it’s no real threat to a Hot 100-top debut like “I Remember Everything” did.

The album is still to follow Zach Bryan – which sold 200,000 copies in its debut week last year – with another six-figure first week, which should make it a real contender for the top spot next week. But with the album’s performance in its first full week being somewhat hampered by its off-cycle debut, whether Bar scene Whether the series reaches number one may depend on whether it performs consistently on the streaming service through the end of the week.

Taylor Swift, The “Tortured Poets” section (Republic): The “Tortured Poets” section has been at the top of the Billboard 200 since its debut in early April, beating debuts by Dua Lipa (Radical optimism), Gunna (One of Wun), Billie Eilish (Hit me hard and soft), ATEEZ (Golden Hour: Part 1) and Gracie Abrams (The secret of us), all of which debuted at number 2 behind Taylor Swift’s blockbuster. Even in the 11th week of release poet remains a very strong performer – it recorded 114,000 album equivalents this week, as the 31-track set (in its entirety anthology Edition) continues to see solid streaming numbers and sells well in its various editions.

More of these new variants could be on their way to fans this week. On July 7, Swift reissued seven previously available CD editions of poet on her webstore, each with a different exclusive bonus track – which were only available that day and (according to the webstore) were scheduled to ship on or before July 10, and could affect the tracking week. On Monday, Swift also released two new versions of the album’s first single, “Fortnight” featuring Post Malone, to DSPs and digital retailers: a new Cults remix of the song and an acoustic version of it. (The latter was previously available via a limited CD release of poetand is currently in the top 10 of the iTunes charts.)

Taylor Swift has been battling hard for the top spot on the charts for over two months and will surely challenge Zach Bryan if he tries to steal it from her with his new album. Plus, Swift has a special reason to be motivated to aim for the 12th No. 1 spot on her new set: With another week at the top, poet would break a three-way tie with that of 2008 Fearless and 2014 1989 and became the longest-running album on the Billboard 200 of the pop superstar’s entire illustrious career.