INSS report: “Israel” suffers “serious damage” in war with Hezbollah

Hezbollah’s diverse and extensive arsenal could “cause serious damage to Israel,” the Israel Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) said.

The Israeli institute, which specializes in security, has published a detailed report examining the impact of the ongoing clashes on the northern front and the possible consequences of a full-scale war with Lebanon. The issue is currently of great importance as Israeli politicians are threatening a war against Lebanon, which could have devastating consequences for the Israeli settler-colonial project.

INSS reported that the Islamic Resistance in Lebanon has fired more than 5,000 projectiles at Israeli targets since October 8, 2023. These include high-trajectory projectiles, such as rocket artillery shells, and direct-fire projectiles, such as anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs), which the resistance has fired to precisely hit targets.

According to the report, these attacks left at least 29 Israeli dead and caused significant damage.

However, the INSS focused on the impact of the attacks on settlements and the major city of Kiryat Shmona, pointing to a “growing sense of futility about the future of the northern border.” This includes 28 settlements and Kiryat Shmona, which were mostly evacuated during the ongoing fighting. The INSS said the situation had left settlers “wondering when and under what conditions they will be able to return” to the colonial outposts.

After listing the current conditions facing the Israelis on the northern front, the institute looked in detail at the possibility of a full-scale war with Lebanon’s Hezbollah.

The greatest threat to “Israel”

According to the report, Hezbollah has become the greatest military threat to the Israeli occupation since Israel’s war on Lebanon in 2006. The resistance faction has carried out a “dramatic troop buildup” that has allowed it to secure a stockpile of “at least 150,000 rockets, missiles and other lethal weapons.”

The stockpile includes medium- and long-range precision-guided munitions, including cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, advanced coastal anti-ship missiles, thousands of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and anti-tank missiles, the INSS said.

Hezbollah has also secured sophisticated cyber systems that, in combination with its military arsenal, could cause “massive casualties and the destruction of critical national infrastructure among civilian and military targets,” the Israeli institute stressed.

It states that a months-long war with Lebanon could cause “serious damage to Israel.”

Read more: Hezbollah’s three-stage response to “Israel”: A look at future attacks

What would a full-scale war with Hezbollah look like for “Israel”?

Shortages in anti-aircraft ammunition

In the initial phase of a full-scale war with Lebanon, Israel’s air defense systems would have to withstand fire of up to thousands of missiles per day, according to the INSS.

The institute stated that “not all” of these projectiles could be intercepted.

Looking at current developments on the northern front, it is clear that Israeli interception rates of rocket artillery attacks have already declined, although current salvos are limited to a few dozen shells in most cases. Shells hit Israeli positions and occupied territories almost daily, as Israeli occupation forces focus their anti-aircraft capabilities on protecting military infrastructure rather than protecting settler communities.

In addition, the INSS believes that attacks could also come from other fronts, such as Iran, Iraq, Syria and Yemen, all of which have factions or are part of the axis of resistance.

Such a scenario could “overwhelm Israel’s air defenses and possibly lead to a shortage of interceptor munitions,” the institute said.

Read more: Iran supports Hezbollah if Israel expands war against Lebanon

Prioritizing Israeli assets

As has already been seen on the northern front and as demonstrated by the numerous shellings in Israeli settlements during Hezbollah’s response to Israeli attacks on Lebanese cities, Israeli occupation forces are likely to prioritise certain locations and assets over others.

This is the result of a “military and civilian threat the likes of which Israel has never experienced before,” the INSS said.

“The Air Force will likely give top priority to defending critical military assets such as air bases, essential national infrastructure second, and the civilian population third,” the Israeli institute added.

In addition, the “lack of supply” of passive protection methods, which include shelters of all kinds, was pointed out.

Power outages have adverse effects

The INSS also highlighted the importance of protecting critical infrastructure, particularly that related to maintaining the functionality of Israeli settler and military areas.

It is likely that Hezbollah, as its Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah has repeatedly stressed, will attack vital targets in the Israeli-occupied zones, such as power plants, ports and roads, in a full-scale war.

The INSS warns that vital functions of sensitive systems such as the electricity grid, land, sea and air communications networks, and supply chains from abroad and within the occupied territories could be directly affected.

Power outages could also affect production, transport and transmission facilities and pose a threat to natural gas production platforms in the Mediterranean.

Read more: A full-scale war with Hezbollah would paralyze “Israel”: former Mossad official

Further disintegration of the collective Israeli mentality

The risks of war on multiple fronts, especially when it occurs simultaneously with the ongoing war in Gaza, pose a major challenge to Israeli settler communities, according to the institute, and make physical and psychological recovery after the war significantly more difficult.

It said the Israeli settler population was suffering from a “collective trauma” caused by the events of October 7, 2023, when the Palestinian resistance destroyed Israeli notions of security and superior military intelligence.

The ongoing war in Gaza and the operations of the supporting fronts have also severely affected the “resilience” of Israeli settlers. The INSS cited its own data and surveys from other sources as evidence of the declining “resilience”.

In particular, recent opinion polls indicate a significant decline in “resilience” compared to the first months of the Gaza war, highlighting the toll that the nine-month war has taken on Israeli settlers.

The term refers to perceived solidarity, trust in Israeli government institutions and Israeli occupation forces, and the level of optimism and hope among settlers. These are crucial indicators of the preparedness of Israeli settler communities that should be examined before making major and drastic decisions, such as a war against Lebanon. Amid divisive political disputes and toxic public discourse that impact many facets of Israeli settler life, doubts are expected to arise about the mental preparedness of Israeli society for a prolonged war on the northern front.

Therefore, it is expected that a full-scale war against Hezbollah would disrupt the lives of the settlers and affect even more Israelis, with serious consequences for the settlers’ recovery.

Read more: Reports: Israel would lose war against Hezbollah within 24 hours

War with Hezbollah must be avoided

Given the serious impact that a war against Lebanon would have on Israel’s settler-colonial project, the institute’s researchers recommended the following:

1. The current “public climate”, including the toxic political debate and the apparent decline in settler resilience, must be seriously considered before any decision is made to expand the war in the North.
2. The continuation of the war in Gaza means that the Israeli authorities should avoid a high-intensity war on multiple fronts elsewhere. Even if the war were started by Hezbollah, the Israeli authorities would have to respond in a measured and proportionate manner.
3. A ceasefire in the Gaza Strip could potentially enable a ceasefire on the northern front and a diplomatic solution under international mediation.
4. In the event of a full-scale war, the Israeli authorities should opt for a short and territorially limited confrontation in order to minimize the material and moral damage to the occupation.
5. The high risks of a war scenario require the authorities to close existing gaps as quickly as possible.
6. Considerable efforts are needed to contain the expectations of the Israeli settler community regarding war against Lebanon, since no steps have been taken to avert the effects of “this grave scenario”.

Read more: War with Hezbollah will be “Israel’s” deadliest: 130-page Israeli report