Disagreement in the ranks: Debate Jonathan Taylor vs. Saquon Barkley for Fantasy Football 2024

If you’ve been looking at the early 2024 Fantasy Football ADP lists, you’ve probably noticed that veteran running backs Saquon Barkley and Jonathan Taylor are neck and neck in terms of draft position. Since the industry tells us that these running backs are basically the same in terms of fantasy value for the upcoming season, we’ve enlisted Jake Ciely and Dane Martinez to break up this virtual tie. Ciely is putting his money on Indy’s frontrunner, while Martinez believes Barkley, now with the Eagles, will fly higher in 2024. Read their arguments below and pick your winner in the comments section.

Dane Martinez promotes Saquon Barkley:

Fantasy managers often consider what an improvement at the quarterback position can mean for receivers and their fantasy potential (have you noticed the hype about Drake London and Garrett Wilson?!?!). I believe an improvement in the offensive line can mean even more for a running back, and no one is getting a bigger improvement than Saquon Barkley. Last year, he was hit on 46% of his runs in the backfield, the third-highest rate in the NFL. In contrast, D’Andre Swift was only hit on 27% of his runs behind the line – the lowest rate in the league! The Eagles’ O-line has been a big factor for other backs lately, too. Look at Miles Sanders, who averaged a very strong 5.0 YPC in four years with Philly, an average that dropped to a measly 3.3 YPC last year with Carolina. Barkley averaged 3.9 YPC last year and that number is sure to rise – the O-line is crucial!

Additionally, put yourself in the shoes of any defensive coordinator who has faced the Giants in recent years. The only player you’ve had to game plan for was Barkley. That means heavy boxing and no one to take attention away from him. That won’t be the case now, as defenses against the Eagles know that if you use Barkley too heavily, AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith will take you out from the outside. I know one of the other players you’ll have to game plan for is Jalen Hurts, but he was banged up toward the end of last year and the Eagles have indicated they’ll use the “tush push” a little less this season, especially after the retirement of Hall of Fame center Jason Kelce. By signing Barkley, the Eagles won’t have to risk Hurts as much in the run game, including at the goal line.

In contrast, Taylor’s running performance will be more compromised than ever with Anthony Richardson at quarterback in Indy. They only played in one game together last year, but Richardson was on pace to produce similar rushing yards and even more rushing TDs than Hurts, who tied with Josh Allen with 15 rushing yards last year to lead the league among quarterbacks. In my opinion, the Eagles RBs will get a bigger piece of the pie this year, while the opposite is true in Indianapolis. Sportsbooks also expect the Eagles to challenge for the division crown with a 10.5 win record, while the Colts are the consensus third choice in the AFC South, meaning Barkley should benefit from a running game and the role of closer late in games more often than Taylor.

If you have the choice… choose Saquon!

Jake Ciely counters in favor of Jonathan Taylor:

I’m happy to see Barkley’s improvement, but Taylor is a step above. The simplest reason for Taylor is workload. When Taylor was nearly 100% healthy again in Week 7, he averaged 21 touches despite getting injured and returning from injury for a second time. Only two running backs topped those numbers last year: Kyren Williams (21.7) and Christian McCaffrey (21.2). Barkley had 20.6, but while his team improvement is tremendous, the Eagles haven’t seen a running back average more than 16.7 touches per game since LeSean McCoy in 2014 (21.3). The Eagles paid for one of the league’s top talents, but they don’t need Barkley averaging 20+ touches. Look at the Colts’ roster. Trey Sermon is currently the “next man up,” meaning few, if any, running backs should have as many touches as Taylor.

People have seen and know what a quarterback like Anthony Richardson does for the running back as well. While Week 1 was abysmal for the Colts’ running backs, it was a Deon Jackson/Jake Funk backfield. In Week 2, Zack Moss was 18-88-1 and 4-4-19-0; Week 4 he finished 18-70-0 and 1-0-0-0; and Week 5 was 23-165-2 and 2-2-30-0 (in Taylor’s first game back). Yes, some of those touches came with Gardner Minshew at quarterback since Richardson was injured in Weeks 2 and 5, but the opportunities and efficiency gain are there. Given his talent and contribution, Taylor should be the only running back to get over 300 touches this year, and he’s the favorite to lead the NFL in total touches. Add in Taylor’s 4.3% rush touchdown rate over his entire career, and you get a running back with better fantasy prospects than Barkley, and in fact, he might be the only one who can challenge Christian McCaffrey.

(Top photos of Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley: Trevor Ruszkowski, Eric Hartline; USA TODAY)