What the Sino-Russian alliance means for the West – POLITICO

Given such interests, China’s appeals for peace should not be taken seriously. For over a decade, Beijing has blatantly violated its obligations under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) by supporting Russia. Largely forgotten, China declared its respect for Ukraine’s sovereignty and borders both in 1994 when Ukraine joined the NPT and in 2013 as part of the fully ratified Sino-Ukrainian Friendship Treaty. Since 2014, however, Beijing’s pseudo-neutrality – and its economic support for Moscow – have been crucial to Russia’s radical revision of state borders in Europe.

Worse, as Russia’s genocidal war against Ukraine continues, Beijing is providing ever more rhetorical support for its apologetic narratives, including Moscow’s supposedly “legitimate security concerns” and the Kremlin’s deliberate (mis)interpretation of the concept of “indivisible security” as a central part of its own foreign policy, blaming the West for both the war in Ukraine and tensions in the Indo-Pacific.

It is remarkable how far Beijing has gone to support Moscow, despite the negative impact on its relations with the West and the potential economic consequences. The country now faces the growing risk of a trade war with the US.

Today, Beijing and Moscow present the image of a united, formidable and stable anti-democratic and anti-American coalition that includes notorious rogue states such as Iran, North Korea and Syria. But the potential for cracks in this informal alliance is also evident. For example, Russia’s growing ties with a strengthened North Korea could lead to a difficult ménage à trois, as Beijing has long sought to keep North Korea under control.

And last but not least, as Matthew Kroenig argues in his book The Return of Great Power Rivalry, autocratic regimes suffer from the volatility of their foreign and domestic affairs. World history shows that open political systems with the rule of law and pluralism are more effective at home and in managing international conflicts with enemies and tensions with foreign allies.

Against this background, it is important that the West maintains its resolve and unity. In concrete terms, this means providing Ukraine with all the support it needs today. A Ukrainian victory on the battlefield, achieved with Western support, and the restoration of the country’s territory will be the best way to contain Russian and Chinese revisionism.