Chris Olave Fantasy Football Outlook for 2024

Companies will tell you what they want to do without stating their intentions directly. All you have to do is listen.

The New Orleans Saints are shouting from the hills about their intentions for their 2024 passing game, but at the same time they aren’t saying a word. They are desperate to get the ball to Chris Olave. A lot.

New Orleans’ unreliable lineup around Olave in 2023 has somehow suffered a downgrade in 2024. Michael Thomas was somehow able to match his total number of games played (10) from last season in the 2021-22 season, but availability was not enough to keep him in the team’s plans. He is still a free agent.

Behind him we saw Rashid Shaheed, Juwan Johnson, AT Perry and Taysom Hill. Momentsbut no one was contributing weekly. There is only one reliable weekly contributor left: Olave.

However, we have seen numerous wideouts fall apart, as has their offense. In Derek Carr’s second season in NOLA, will the Saints employ a high level of volume under Olave’s direction to create a relevant enough Will it be enough to allow him to be a bargain in fantasy football drafts, or will the whole operation fall apart to the point where we’ll wish we had passed on him?

Chris Olave Fantasy Football Outlook

The leap from good to great

The proverbial home of the best wideouts in fantasy football is becoming increasingly scarce. And quickly.

When top quarterbacks and offenses part ways to potentially two Wideouts that are closer to the top of the leaderboard than one from a bad offense, there are so many elite options that aren’t going to just disappear. The top of the draft is full of perennials like Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, CeeDee Lamb and AJ Brown. Then most are looking at former top-10 picks and first- or second-year players who have had (or can have) monstrous seasons like Garrett Wilson, Puka Nacua, Jaylen Waddle and Drake London. There are even veterans in suboptimal situations who are still getting 1,000 yards, like Davante Adams, Mike Evans and DK Metcalf. They’ll wait a while in drafts before someone grabs Chris Olave, who is currently the WR18 in FanDuel’s Best Ball Drafts with an average draft position (ADP) of 54.3.

I just do not understand.

Olave missed one game, but was still the WR19 overall with 187.9 half-PPR points. Additionally, many of his fantasy point indicators were even better; the former Ohio State Buckeyes star was fourth in the NFL in air yards per game (114.4), behind only Jefferson, Evans and Amari Cooper – all three of whom enjoyed elite fantasy seasons per game. But he wasn’t just a home run hitter, either, ranking 17th in the league at his position in target share (25.0%).

Most of the wideouts in Olave’s draft selection get either more volume or downfield work — not both. If you’re wondering why his fantasy football season was so disappointing despite doing such good work, all you have to do is look at the touchdown column. He was 45th in red-zone target rate among wideouts (18.5%) and scored on just five.

In terms of expected fantasy points per game, Olave’s 13.3 were 11th in the NFL in the PPR half and a significant improvement over the actual mark (11.9). The Saints’ red zone attack is loaded with a little bit of nonsense, so that’s not something that will completely change in one season. However, a few more points — although he’s expected to score even more points without Thomas — could turn Olave into a second-round-level wide receiver who’s available well past the fourth round.

Living with Derek

If you go through the list of names I mentioned earlier, you’ll notice that for many, the appeal is the quarterback throwing the ball.

I understand if that’s not the case with Derek Carr. His red zone issues are abysmal, but Carr is still above league average as a quarterback.

According to NFL NextGenStats, Carr ranked 14th among full-time qualifiers in expected points per dropback (0.02 EPA/db) — ahead of Jalen Hurts, Geno Smith, Kyler Murray and Joe Burrow in a down year. His average depth of target (8.0 aDOT) was also 11th among qualifiers, which combined with Olave’s aerial distance shows he’s willing to throw the ball deep, something many quarterbacks simply won’t do in 2023.

If we already know that Olave’s talent and opportunities are enough to move into the second tier of wideouts, Carr also has a history of being able to sustain that kind of performance from his top man. In 2022, Carr helped Davante Adams to a WR3 base (points per game, 16.8). In 2021, Hunter Renfrow moved up to the WR21 spot (12.1 FPPG in half the PPR).

Unless you count Michael Crabtree’s two interesting years, it’s not like the Las Vegas Raiders have given him much talent at the position otherwise. Adams was the only wideout in his statistical prime with top-notch talent, and Carr delivered a top-five season. Olave (24 years old) may fit that description now.

Can passing attacks at the lower end of the scale still produce gems?

A quick look at the wide receiver rankings for the upcoming season shows a trend we mentioned earlier. Managers are looking for players with outstanding offense and top-notch quarterback play. If we want to diagnose whether or not Olave is a solid fourth- to sixth-round pick, we have to examine his reasons for failure — aside from injuries.

One reason could well be the ability of its offense to score points. The Saints were NumberFire’s 11th-worst offense last year when considering the schedule, and many behind them have upgraded a quarterback or perimeter talent or hired a new coach. New Orleans went with the third option, signing Klint Kubiak from the San Francisco 49ers to replace Pete Carmichael. Kubiak’s last stop as a playmaker, the 2022 Denver Broncos, wasn’t exactly a stunner, so without major personnel changes, it’s hard to look up for NOLA’s scoring unit.

Meanwhile, Olave’s talent, role and quarterback play (again, due to injuries) all tick the boxes to give him a solid fantasy season. The question for most is: When New Orleans hits rock bottom, is that when Olave fails?

It is possible, but not guaranteed.

The Cleveland Browns were the fourth-worst nF offense last season and delivered a WR17 season to Amari Cooper based on Cooper’s aforementioned air yards. In 2022, the Carolina Panthers were the seventh-worst nF schedule-adjusted offense and received the first overall pick, but managed a WR22 season for DJ Moore with 1,564 air yards this season.

With Carr at the helm, however, I don’t expect the Saints to be a top-five worst team with one of the league’s easier schedules. Even if that’s the case, deep vertical passes have a lot of variance on every throw, but the regular accumulation of those passes can actually save receivers in the backfield on some of the worst offenses in the entire league. Olave was – and will be in 2024 – such a threat, which reduces the risk that he won’t find a way to make an impact in fantasy football, regardless of how good his offense is.

Chris Olave Fantasy Football Projection

numberFire’s full-season fantasy football projections strongly favor selecting Chris Olave at his current ADP.

With the usual expectation of 17 games for all players, the model expects 95.6 catches on 151.1 attempts, 1,212.7 receiving yards and 7.0 touchdowns from the Saints’ wide receiver in 2024. That equates to 162.6 half-PPR fantasy points and ranks as WR13 within the projections.

FanDuel Sportsbook’s receiving prop for Olave is set at 1050.5 yards with a pick ’em of -112 on each side. Olave’s over/under for touchdown passes is 5.5 with odds of -124 toward the over. It would take a slight overperformance from 2023 (now without Thomas) to reach that mark – assuming he’s reasonably healthy. That seems reasonable based on what we’ve discussed so far.

After completing the research, Olave appears to be a dark horse in fantasy football drafts this season. There’s no real doubt about the receiver’s versatility or talent, as he’ll be taking on the most clearly defined role of his young career in 2024. His quarterback has enough experience maintaining his suitability for top targets to trust him as well.

New Orleans’ signing of Kubiak could put an end to the Saints’ red zone mess that routinely hurt both Olave and Alvin Kamara’s fantasy production under Carmichael. Barring injury, there’s no real path to failure for Olave to — in a worst-case scenario — repeat his WR19 season from last year with a similar current ADP.

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The author named above is an employee of FanDuel and is not authorized to participate in public daily fantasy contests or place sports bets on FanDuel. Advice provided by the author does not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel. Following the author’s advice does not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports bets.