Poland’s last MiG-29s could go to war in Ukraine

Poland has indicated that it may also give Ukraine the remaining Mikoyan MiG-29 fighter jets, which would allow the Ukrainian Air Force’s MiG fleet to be restored to full strength while the air force awaits the arrival of ex-European Lockheed Martin F-16s and Dassault Mirage 2000s.

But fighter jets are not what the Ukrainian Air Force needs most. What the Air Force needs most is an air defense to protect the fighter jets it already has on the ground. Adding jets without building up air defenses could result in the jets being put out of action before they can fly a single mission.

The twin-engine supersonic MiGs arrived as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk signed a security agreement in Warsaw on Monday.

Tusk said he was inclined to hand over the roughly 15 MiGs, but only if Poland’s NATO allies deploy fighter jets to monitor Polish airspace until the Polish Air Force can procure new jets to replace the MiGs. “We cannot just hand over the MiGs immediately because they are currently performing airspace surveillance tasks,” Tusk said.

That shouldn’t be a problem. NATO regularly sends squadrons of fighter jets from its larger members – including the US, UK, France and Germany – into the skies of its smaller members to patrol. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania don’t even have fighter jets and have always been monitored by aircraft from allied countries.

It is safe to assume that the Poles will send the MiGs at some point. The need is clear, because the Ukrainians are losing fighter aircraft at an unacceptable rate. Last week, for three terrifying days, Russian drones flew over Ukrainian airfields and discovered targets for Iskander ballistic missiles. The Ukrainian Air Force lost at least three valuable fighter aircraft in these attacks – including a MiG-29.

It is unclear exactly how many MiGs the Ukrainians still have at their disposal. Kyiv’s air force went to war in February 2022 with about 50 former Soviet MiG-29s, which corresponds to almost half of its active combat aircraft fleet.

But the war has taken a heavy toll on the MiG brigades. In 28 months of fierce fighting, the Ukrainian Air Force has lost at least 28 MiG-29s, analysts have confirmed. Poland and Slovakia have donated a total of 27 MiGs as replacements, but some of these aircraft were not airworthy and could only be used as spare parts suppliers.

A dozen or more additional Polish MiG-29s would complement, if not expand, the Ukrainian Air Force’s MiG fleet – and buy the Air Force time while new F-16s and Mirage 2000s arrive over the next year. The first F-16s are due to arrive in Ukraine any day now.

However, there is a risk that new MiGs from Poland would never take off. The Russians are exploiting the gaps in Ukraine’s air defenses by flying more drones over Ukrainian airfields – and attacking them with Iskander missiles.

And that’s why Ukraine needs additional air defenses more than it needs additional fighter jets. Fortunately for Ukraine, its allies are aware of the magnitude of the need. Air defense for Ukraine is high on the agenda when NATO leaders meet in Washington, DC, this week.