MLB DFS: Model picks and value plays at DraftKings for July 9

FantasyLabs’ MLB player models contain numerous data points to help you build your MLB DFS rosters.

They include our floor, center and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our trend tool, stacking tool and more.

Also, don’t forget that for large field tournaments, you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you want to manually build your teams for cash games or small field tournaments.

Finally, be sure to check out PlateIQ – one of the most powerful research sources you can find for MLB DFS.

Let’s take a look at some MLB plays that stand out in our player models for today’s roster.

Bargain Rating Selection

You may be wondering: What is the bargain rating and why should I care?

Bargain Rating shows how cheap a player is on one DFS site compared to others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than another, he will have a positive Bargain Rating on the site where he is cheaper and a bad Bargain Rating on the site where he is more expensive. It’s a simple metric, but targeting players with discounted prices is almost always a good strategy in DFS.

Bargain rating is highly correlated with player value, which you can quickly see with our projected plus/minus metric.

Given that Plus/Minus helps you estimate a player’s likely number of points compared to what his salary implies, this is a good company for bargain valuation.

MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value

Rece Hinds ($2,300): Third Base/Shortstop, Cincinnati Reds

Rece Hinds’ MLB debut couldn’t have gone any better. The former second-round pick made his first-ever appearance on Monday night, leading his Cincinnati Reds to a convincing win over the Colorado Avalanche. With Cal Quantrill starting for the Rockies on Tuesday, Hinds is ready to repeat that feat.

Hinds instantly endeared himself to his new teammates when he had two hits in the first game of the series. Even more impressive, both hits came on extra bases, including a home run and a double. While his power numbers are unmatched, Hinds has shown this kind of power before. Last year, he posted a .536 slugging percentage in Double-A, followed by 27 extra-base hits in the first half of this year in Triple-A.

Cal Quantrill doesn’t have much to offer against Hinds. His expected ERA of 4.40 puts Quantrill in the 31st percentile, while he’s allowed four long fly balls and 10 earned runs in his last 16.1 innings pitched.

With a salary of $2,000, we’re backing Hinds on Tuesday. He may not get the 19.0 fantasy points he scored last night, but he should far exceed the implied value of his salary. Lock in Hinds as the top value on the list.

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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Tips

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Max Scherzer ($9,300) against the Los Angeles Angels

Check out this sight for the eyes. The Texas Rangers, who have a subpar record and failed to live up to the expectations of last year’s World Series victory, were waiting for a sign of life before the All-Star break. And that’s exactly what they got when they were allowed to bring Max Scherzer back into the team.

In three starts since returning from a nerve injury, Scherzer has been up to his usual antics. The three-time Cy Young winner has allowed just 13 baserunners in 16.2 innings pitched, for a paltry 2.70 ERA. While he hasn’t yet reached the strikeout numbers we’ve come to expect from him, he should make significant progress on Tuesday night against the Los Angeles Angels.

The Halos’ strikeout rate has increased in recent weeks, with 24.6% of players going to the dugout. Scherzer also continues to throw some of the meanest pitches in the bigs, with his curveball causing a whiff rate of 33.3% and his slider as high as 40.9%. His chase rate also looks even better, with Scherzer getting batters to swing outside the zone on 29.9% of all his attempts.

That salary would suggest Scherzer isn’t at his peak, but that’s not the case. He remains a top-flight threat and should have no problem hitting his fantasy ceiling in this AL West showdown.

Batsman

Corey Seager ($5,000) vs. the Los Angeles Angels

You might argue that no hitter has had a more productive two weeks than Corey Seager. The Rangers shortstop has a 13-game hitting streak in tonight’s divisional affair, but it’s his renewed power that has us most excited about his fantasy prospects against the Angels.

Seager has been on a whole other level lately. In this 13-game series, he has totaled 19 hits, including seven doubles and three home runs. In addition, the three-time Silver Slugger has made six multi-hit attempts during this span, averaging 11.0 fantasy points per night. Seager’s run is far from over, as he is still more than 70 points below his expected slugging percentage.

Roansy Contreras and his ineffective performances only add to that allure. The Halos’ likely starter ranks in the 11th percentile in barrel and hard-hit rates, which translates to an incredible .467 expected slugging percentage. The young right-hander is doing himself no favors by throwing for contact, a trait that will lead to his ultimate downfall on Tuesday night.

Nobody is slowing Seager down, especially not Contreras. Seager’s rise continues on today’s main roster, ride with him to fantasy stardom.

More DraftKings MLB DFS hitters and pitchers

One of the great benefits of a FantasyLabs Pro membership is the ability to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.

A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X by Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. This purchase allows you to use his projections alone or create aggregated projections within our player models.

For this example, we created a 50/50 blend of THE BAT X and FantasyLabs projections to identify some hitters that stand out with this blend.

MLB DFS Pitchers

Yusei Kikuchi ($8,200) against the San Francisco Giants

It’s been a minute since Yusei Kikuchi won a start, and even longer since he got off to a good start, but we’re still hoping he breaks both winning streaks tonight against the San Francisco Giants.

It’s been nearly a month since Kikuchi’s last win, a triumph over the Milwaukee Brewers on June 11. His last good start was the game before that win, on June 6 against the Baltimore Orioles. But his losing streak is about to end. Kikuchi showed signs of life in his last game, limiting the Houston Astros to two earned runs in 5.2 innings pitched – a sign of what’s to come for the left-hander.

Kikuchi’s actual ERA continues to be above expectations, meaning he’s a candidate for improvement in his upcoming starts. We’re seeing the first early signs of that improved success, as the 33-year-old has allowed just nine hits in his last 10.2 innings pitched.

Of course, his fantasy production is not limited to runs, wins and baserunners, strikeouts play a more important role in fantasy scoring. In this regard, Kikuchi continues to shine. The Japanese international is in the 66th percentile in strikeout percentage, which corresponds to a K/9 rate of 9.4.

It helps that the Giants have the 10th most punchouts against left-handers this season, but Kikuchi also benefits from the pitcher-friendly dimensions of Oracle Park. We expect him to have another excellent start, this time rewarded with a win.

Available now: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator, which uses the power of simulation to create advanced DFS lineups.

MLB DFS Bats

Geraldo Perdomo ($3,300) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

One of our final picks is a pure value approach. Geraldo Perdomo has been a key contributor in the Arizona Diamondbacks’ last few games, and circumstances call for that upward trend to continue in Tuesday’s game against the Atlanta Braves.

Perdomo has made modest progress in his last few games. He has hits in six of his last seven games and has a modest four-game hitting streak tonight. In those four games, he has totaled five hits, four runs, two RBIs and a triple. And more importantly, he should have no trouble adding that run against Chris Sale.

Perdomo is doing his best work as a right-handed hitter. Although we’re only looking at a limited sample size, his slugging percentage against lefties soars to .433, while against righties it’s just .290. Predictably, this correlates with improved run production, as he got four of his nine RBIs in just 30 at-bats.

Arizona’s offense is trending in the right direction, and that depends largely on the performance of the bottom half of the lineup. Count Perdomo has one of those secondary performers who should have another strong outing tonight.

Marcus Semien ($4,800) vs. the Los Angeles Angels

We end today’s roundup with a third player who will be joining our Texas Rangers team. While Corey Seager deservedly gets most of the spotlight, Marcus Semien is increasing his run production. The Rangers’ leadoff man is laying the foundation for the rest of the lineup, and as we can see, everyone is celebrating.

Semien’s power metrics may be declining, but there’s still a lot to like about him. He’s in the 60th percentile of expected batting average, hitting a respectable .290. Likewise, his expected slugging percentage is on the threshold of above-average, currently sitting at .411. Still, the two-time All-Star’s power is below both of those thresholds, giving him plenty of opportunities to improve.

We see that reflected in Semien’s most recent sample. In July, he has a batting average of .286, which is getting closer to his season average and expected. In addition, Semien has safely hit the target in all but one of those six games, leading to six runs during that span.

Today’s pitchers’ clash is what will help Semien win on the main roster. Contreras is making most of his throws over the hard part of the plate, and the Rangers are starting to rediscover their World Series flair. Add Semien to the list of Rangers expected to deliver top-notch fantasy performances against the Angels.