Timeline for Michigan, see updated radar

The afternoon forecast data is in and gives us a good idea of ​​when we’ll be dealing with all that rain. Let’s break down the schedule so you know how difficult your trip might or might not be here in Michigan.

The general scenario is that rain and thunderstorms are developing now (4 p.m.) in extreme southern Michigan. The initial rain will feel and act like the outer band of a tropical system. Southern Michigan could see brief periods of torrential rain if you are in that initial arc of thunderstorms.

Here are the constantly updated radar images to track the actual rain.

Rain will extend northward into Central Lower, the Saginaw Bay area, Flint and Grand Rapids during the latter part of the evening. All of us from Big Rapids, Mount Pleasant, Bay City and Midland southward will be in for showers until midnight today. The intensity of the rain will gradually increase, becoming a steady light to moderate rain by daybreak Wednesday.

Remember, this is not a sudden downpour. It is a long-lasting light to moderate rain that lasts for almost 24 hours in many places and very heavily for a few hours in some areas. The long-lasting nature of this rain is what really makes the rainfall total add up.

In fact, the first band of heavy rain, which now follows I-94 almost exactly, is why Kalamazoo and Jackson should see some of the heaviest rainfall totals. Ann Arbor and Detroit are also located along I-94, but we expect occasional breaks in the rain for those locations on Wednesday.

Wednesday is a rainy day for all of us from Cadillac, Houghton Lake and Alpena southward. The heaviest rain will extend from the Kalamazoo area through the Jackson and Lansing areas to the Flint area and the southern part of Michigan’s Thumb.

Rain will clear from west to east Wednesday evening and into Wednesday night. In eastern Thumb and eastern Detroit, rain should be over by Thursday morning.

Here is the radar forecast from the model we like best in this situation. I have two views for you. The first view is a steady radar forecast in 15 minute increments. This model run only goes through Wednesday morning, so I also have the hourly radar forecast through Thursday morning.

Here’s a look at the radar for tomorrow morning during your commute and a radar forecast for the afternoon.

In the yellow and orange areas, rainfall amounts are high enough to flood poorly drained roads. Driving through intersections that fill with water during normal heavy rain can make those intersections impassable. However, the main roads that are drained will only see water pooling during the heaviest periods of rain.

This is a simple weather story really. It will start to rain this evening. It will continue to rain heavily at times on Wednesday and will stop by Wednesday evening.

Expect driving difficulties on Wednesday, especially along the I-94 and I-69 corridors.

UPDATED RAINFALL FORECAST: Heavy rain up to 6 inches possible. See where in Michigan the beryl rains will be heaviest

Stay updated on the storm here.