Preview of the Cardinals series: Equally strong rivals from different states

The Royals face their Show-Me State rivals (for now, unless the Royals move to Kansas) and the two teams are evenly matched for a change. It’s the first time since 2017 that the Royals have had an equal or better record than the Cardinals heading into the series. St. Louis certainly had the upper hand throughout the series, 75-49, but the Royals won the four of seven games that really mattered in 1985.

Today’s game has already been postponed due to all-day rain in St. Louis. The teams will play a split doubleheader on Wednesday.

Kansas City Royals (49-43) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (48-42) at Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO

Royals: 4.54 runs scored/game (13th in MLB), 3.93 runs allowed/game (6th)

Cardinals: 4.10 runs scored/game (22nd), 4.47 runs allowed/game (20th)

The Cardinals got off to a slow start at 15-24, but have since won 33 of 51 games – the best record in the National League during that time – and fought their way back into contention. They are 24-18 at home in front of the Best Fans in Baseball and are fresh off a successful 6-2 road trip against the Pirates and Nationals.

Only five teams have hit fewer home runs than the Cardinals, but they’re not exactly playing “whiteyball”: They have just 55 steals on 70 attempts and have no real identity. Catcher Willson Contreras got off to a great start but missed six weeks with a broken forearm and hasn’t been the same since.

All-Stars Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado aren’t what they once were. Goldschmidt has the highest strikeout rate of his career and Arenado has the lowest ISO of his career. Goldschmidt has really struggled at home, hitting .195/.247/.340 at Busch Stadium. Brendan Donovan has been a strong hitter, hitting .349/.407/.518 in his last 21 games.

Rookie shortstop Masyn Winn has been phenomenal on defense and leads the league in Defensive Runs Saved at that position with +11. Centerfielder Michael Siani is the second-best player with 11 Outs Above Average. Otherwise, the Cardinals are average to poor on defense.

Michael Wacha was originally drafted by the Cardinals and won 59 games for them in seven seasons. He will face right-hander Andre Pallante, a reliever who recently moved into the starting lineup and pitched a season-high seven innings in his last outing against the Pirates, allowing just one run. He throws a four-seamer, a sinker, a slider and a knuckle curve with a whiff rate of 39.5 percent. Right-handers have, oddly enough, fared much better against him, hitting .337/.427/.506 compared to .202/.268/.247 for left-handers.

Longtime veteran and 2023 All-Star Sonny Gray has a career record of 9-2 with a 1.76 ERA in 13 starts against the Royals. He has 11 runs in 9 ¹⁄₃ innings in his last two outings and a 4.48 ERA in his last 11 starts. The 34-year-old throws a 92 mph fastball that hits pretty well, combined with an effective sweeper and cutter, a sinker and a curveball. Opponents are hitting him on the ground 46.5 percent of the time.

The Cardinals have the fifth-best bullpen by ERA at 3.40, although they have the seventh-lowest strikeout rate. They have the seventh-lowest walk rate and the second-highest groundball rate among bullpens. Closer Ryan Helsley leads the majors with 31 saves, and when he blew the lead in his last outing on July 5, it was only his second blown save of the year. JoJo Romero and Matthew Liberatore have some of the best sliders in baseball. John King has a 61.5 percent groundball rate, the sixth-highest in baseball. Lefties are hitting just .170/.235/.170 against lefty JoJo Romero, while lefty John King has no platoon split.

The Cardinals are in the grip of an identity crisis after losing 91 games last season and some fans calling for manager Oli Marmol to be fired. But they have turned things around and still have a talented homegrown roster. The Royals can certainly hold their own against their cross-state rivals, but can they snap a short two-game winning streak?