Chris Godwin 2024 Redraft Profile

After ending 2021 and 2022 with an ACL injury, Chris Godwin finally had a “normal” season last year. Godwin picked up right where he left off, reaching 1,000 receiving yards for the fourth time in five years. Coming back from a serious injury was a major obstacle, but it wasn’t the only one he had to overcome.

Chris Godwin 2024 Redraft Profile

Looking back to 2023

At the start of last season, there were many reasons to doubt Tampa Bay’s offense. The replacement of Tom Brady with Baker Mayfield, whose career was in the doldrums, caused considerable concern. In addition to numerous other changes to the Buccaneers’ roster and coaching staff, the situation in Tampa was completely different. Bookmakers expected them to be one of the worst teams in the league, setting the ceiling at just 6.5 wins.

None of that fazed Godwin. He finished with 83 pass catches for 1,024 yards on 131 attempts. That stat line is nearly identical to what we’ve come to expect from Godwin, and you couldn’t tell from those numbers alone that anything had changed in Tampa Bay. Even underlying stats like target share, average depth of target and air yardage share were on par with (or better than) his usual production.

Still, his fantasy points per game reached their lowest point since 2018. Godwin finished the game as the WR34, averaging 12.3 points per game. The most valid excuse for this poor finish was the lack of touchdowns. He only reached the end zone twice, his lowest point total since his rookie season. When playing against 6’5″ superstar Mike Evans, expect a disappointing touchdown total. Red zone targets naturally attract him more than anyone else. Still, expect a player of Godwin’s caliber to find the net a few more times than he did.

Expectations for this season

Tampa Bay’s offense has seen minimal personnel changes this offseason. Their roster is almost identical to last year’s. The most notable change in West Florida is their new offensive coordinator. Former Buccanneers offensive coordinator Dave Canales became the head coach of the Carolina Panthers. His departure was expected, as the “QB whisperer” helped Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield turn their careers around.

Canales will be replaced by new addition Liam Coen, who has publicly discussed plans for Godwin’s use. Coen intends to use Godwin as a slot receiver much more often this season. 2023 was an outlier in terms of how often Godwin lined up in the slot, so this is a return to normal. Last year, he was in the slot for just 32.1% of snaps, far below his career average of about 55%.

Room for growth?

Father Time is undefeated and his next victim could be Mike Evans. Although Evans has shown no signs of slowing down, the pillar of consistency has to fall at some point. Evans turns 31 next month, a typical age for wide receivers to begin their descent into retirement. Even if Evans stays healthy and productive, Godwin has proven time and time again that they can coexist.

ADP vs. Projections

Godwin is currently the WR36 out of underdog drafts, which is obviously value. He’s a reliable producer with a safe floor who has shown multiple times he can be a top-10 receiver. He’s the WR29 in my rankings and should go much sooner than his ADP suggests.

My prediction for Godwin in 2024:
143 targets, 93 receptions, 1105 yards, 5 TD
233.5 PPR points
13.7 points per game

Main photo: (Kim Klement Neitzel) – USA Today Sports